Pescara 3-0 Virtus Entella – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pescara at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pescara vs Virtus Entella fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Adriatico - Giovanni Cornacchia plays host to Pescara versus Virtus Entella in Serie B, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off: Wednesday 18 March 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Pescara's overall Serie B record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L W D W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Pescara's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at Stadio Adriatico - Giovanni Cornacchia this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Virtus Entella have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Virtus Entella have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Pescara, 1.10 for Virtus Entella — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Pescara 0W, Virtus Entella 0W, 1D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Oct 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Pescara half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Virtus Entella half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Pescara 63% and Virtus Entella 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pescara 63% | Virtus Entella 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pescara 1.59 xG and Virtus Entella 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pescara attack 1.027 / defence 1.185 | Virtus Entella attack 0.641 / defence 1.161. League average goals — home 1.331 / away 1.110. Data: 30 Pescara games / 30 Virtus Entella games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pescara 53% | Draw 28% | Virtus Entella 19%. Fair-value odds: Pescara 1.89 | Draw 3.57 | Virtus Entella 5.26. Pescara hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Pescara at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pescara if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.43 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Pescara 50% | Virtus Entella 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pescara vs Virtus Entella | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stadio Adriatico - Giovanni Cornacchia • Kick-off: Wednesday 18 Mar 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pescara 53% | Draw 28% | Virtus Entella 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 47% | xG Pescara 1.59 / Virtus Entella 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Pescara attack 1.027 / def 1.185 | Virtus Entella attack 0.641 / def 1.161 | league avg home 1.331 / away 1.110 • Poisson stance: Pescara (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Pescara xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Virtus Entella xG
47%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pescara vs Virtus Entella kick off?
Pescara vs Virtus Entella kicked off at 19:00 on Wednesday 18 March 2026 at Stadio Adriatico - Giovanni Cornacchia.
What was the final score in Pescara vs Virtus Entella?
Pescara 3 - 0 Virtus Entella.
Where is Pescara vs Virtus Entella being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Adriatico - Giovanni Cornacchia.
What competition is Pescara vs Virtus Entella part of?
Pescara vs Virtus Entella is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pescara vs Virtus Entella?
Our statistical model gives Pescara a 53% chance of winning, Virtus Entella a 19% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Pescara the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pescara vs Virtus Entella?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Pescara and Virtus Entella will score (BTTS).
Will Pescara vs Virtus Entella have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pescara and Virtus Entella?
Record (1 meetings): Pescara 0W | Draws 1 | Virtus Entella 0W.
What form are Pescara and Virtus Entella in?
Pescara (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-W-D. Virtus Entella (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Pescara's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Virtus Entella's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.59. Flip it around — Virtus Entella's attack (0.64x) against Pescara's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 0.84.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.4%), 2-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pescara Win
53%
1.87
28%
3.57
19%
5.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Pescara xG
Total xG
2.43
0.84
Virtus Entella xG
1.87
53%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
5.40
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
43%
2.33
20%
4.88
Win to Nil
23%
4.35
4%
26.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 7.4 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.0 | 11.8 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.3 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.9 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pescara vs Virtus Entella?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Pescara and Virtus Entella expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Pescara and 0.84 for Virtus Entella, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Pescara vs Virtus Entella?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 30 outings, Pescara have picked up 0.87 PPG on a 5W 11D 14L record — L-W-D-W-D across the most recent five.
Virtus Entella's form line: 7W 10D 13L from 30 games, 1.03 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.87 PPG for Pescara against 1.03 for Virtus Entella. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Pescara have posted 1.13 PPG from 15 outings (4W 5D 6L).
On the road, Virtus Entella have gone 1W 4D 10L from 15 away games — 0.47 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.03 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Virtus Entella's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pescara come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Pescara are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Virtus Entella are on 0.93 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pescara have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 30 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pescara
Current Season
Virtus Entella
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pescara and Virtus Entella in coming into this match?
Pescara have gone 5W 11D 14L in their last 30 games (0.87 PPG), while Virtus Entella have gone 7W 10D 13L in their last 30 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pescara at home or Virtus Entella away?
Pescara's home record (1.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pescara at home: 1.13 PPG; Virtus Entella away: 0.47 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 18 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Pescara
1
Draws
0
Virtus Entella
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pescara and Virtus Entella?
From 2 meetings on record, Pescara have won 1, Virtus Entella have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Pescara and Virtus Entella last play each other?
They last met on 18 March 2026, when Pescara 3-0 Virtus Entella.
Who has won more matches between Pescara and Virtus Entella?
Pescara have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Pescara are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Virtus Entella are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pescara 60%, Virtus Entella 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Pescara) and 33% (Virtus Entella).
On the defensive side: Pescara have failed to score in 27% of games; Virtus Entella in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pescara home games / Virtus Entella away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pescara play Virtus Entella?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Pescara's recent matches and 40% of Virtus Entella's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pescara vs Virtus Entella usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Pescara's recent games and 33% of Virtus Entella's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pescara and Virtus Entella tend to score early?
Pescara have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Virtus Entella in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Pescara run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Virtus Entella.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pescara beat Virtus Entella 3-0 at Stadio Adriatico - Giovanni Cornacchia, Regular Season - 31, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pescara 1.59 xG and Virtus Entella 0.84 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Pescara beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Virtus Entella landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pescara attack 1.03 / defence 1.19 against Virtus Entella attack 0.64 / defence 1.16, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pescara 53% | Draw 28% | Virtus Entella 19%, with Pescara to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pescara 63%, Virtus Entella 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pescara's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Virtus Entella's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pescara 0.87 PPG, Virtus Entella 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pescara win broke the near-deadlock. Pescara (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.47 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line. Virtus Entella (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.