Pescara 2-1 Palermo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Palermo at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pescara vs Palermo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Pescara host Palermo at Stadio Adriatico - Giovanni Cornacchia in Serie B, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 1 March 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Pescara — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Pescara, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pescara's form when playing at home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 games at Stadio Adriatico - Giovanni Cornacchia this term (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Serie B games this season, Palermo have recorded 6W 4D 0L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Palermo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Palermo away from home this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Palermo — 1.40 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.20 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Pescara register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Palermo in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Pescara have won 0, Palermo 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 1 Nov 2025, ended 0–5 with Palermo winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Pescara in-play and half-time data (26 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Palermo in-play and half-time data (26 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pescara 65% versus Palermo 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pescara 62% | Palermo 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pescara 1.00 xG and Palermo 1.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pescara attack 0.828 / defence 1.362 | Palermo attack 1.208 / defence 0.976. League average goals — home 1.240 / away 1.106. Palermo have an above-average attack strength of 1.208 — the away xG of 1.82 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 26 Pescara games / 64 Palermo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pescara 20% | Draw 24% | Palermo 56%. Fair-value odds: Pescara 5.00 | Draw 4.17 | Palermo 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Palermo (56%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Palermo at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.82 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Pescara 60% | Palermo 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pescara vs Palermo | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stadio Adriatico - Giovanni Cornacchia • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Mar 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pescara 20% | Draw 24% | Palermo 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 54% | xG Pescara 1.00 / Palermo 1.82 • Poisson strength factors: Pescara attack 0.828 / def 1.362 | Palermo attack 1.208 / def 0.976 | league avg home 1.240 / away 1.106 • Poisson stance: Palermo (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Pescara xG
Expected Goals
1.82
Palermo xG
54%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pescara vs Palermo kick off?
Pescara vs Palermo kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 1 March 2026 at Stadio Adriatico - Giovanni Cornacchia.
What was the final score in Pescara vs Palermo?
Pescara 2 - 1 Palermo.
Where is Pescara vs Palermo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Adriatico - Giovanni Cornacchia.
What competition is Pescara vs Palermo part of?
Pescara vs Palermo is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pescara vs Palermo?
Our statistical model gives Pescara a 20% chance of winning, Palermo a 56% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Palermo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pescara vs Palermo?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Pescara and Palermo will score (BTTS).
Will Pescara vs Palermo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pescara and Palermo?
Record (1 meetings): Pescara 0W | Draws 0 | Palermo 1W.
What form are Pescara and Palermo in?
Pescara (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Palermo (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Pescara's attack rating (0.83) and Palermo's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.00 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Palermo's attack versus Pescara's defence, projects 1.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palermo Win
20%
5.06
24%
4.08
56%
1.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
0 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Pescara xG
Total xG
2.82
1.82
Palermo xG
5.06
20%
Home win
4.08
24%
Draw
1.79
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
16%
6.17
37%
2.72
Win to Nil
3%
31.22
20%
4.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 10.8 | 9.9 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.8 | 9.9 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 5.4 | 4.9 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pescara vs Palermo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Pescara and Palermo expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Pescara and 1.82 for Palermo, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Pescara vs Palermo?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 26 outings, Pescara have picked up 0.69 PPG on a 3W 9D 14L record — D-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Pescara is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Palermo's form line: 14W 9D 3L from 26 games, 1.96 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-W. The sample for Palermo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Palermo are the form team by 1.27 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Pescara.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Pescara have posted 0.92 PPG from 12 outings (2W 5D 5L).
On the road, Palermo have gone 4W 6D 2L from 12 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.96 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Palermo's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palermo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Pescara are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.96 conceded per game recently; Palermo are on 1.73 scored and 0.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pescara have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Defensively: Palermo in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 26 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pescara
Blended
Palermo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pescara and Palermo in coming into this match?
Pescara have gone 3W 9D 14L in their last 26 games (0.69 PPG), while Palermo have gone 14W 9D 3L in their last 26 (1.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pescara at home or Palermo away?
Palermo's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pescara at home: 0.92 PPG; Palermo away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Pescara or Palermo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pescara have kept a clean sheet in 8% of their recent games, Palermo in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Pescara and Palermo runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Pescara
0
Draws
1
Palermo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pescara and Palermo?
From 2 meetings on record, Pescara have won 1, Palermo have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Pescara and Palermo last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Pescara 2-1 Palermo.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Pescara are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Palermo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pescara 58%, Palermo 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Pescara) and 42% (Palermo).
On the defensive side: Pescara have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pescara home games / Palermo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pescara play Palermo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Pescara's games and 58% of Palermo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pescara vs Palermo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Pescara's recent games and 42% of Palermo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pescara and Palermo tend to score early?
Pescara have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Palermo in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Pescara defy the odds to beat Palermo 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pescara beat Palermo 2-1 at Stadio Adriatico - Giovanni Cornacchia, Regular Season - 27, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pescara 1.00 xG and Palermo 1.82 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Pescara beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Palermo landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pescara attack 0.83 / defence 1.36 against Palermo attack 1.21 / defence 0.98, drawn from 26/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pescara 20% | Draw 24% | Palermo 56%, with Palermo to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Pescara win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pescara 62%, Palermo 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pescara's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Palermo's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Palermo arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 0.69. Form was overturned, with Pescara winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Palermo (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.