Perugia 1-2 Sudtirol – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Perugia at 39%, yet in-form Sudtirol provide a compelling counter-argument — this Perugia vs Sudtirol fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Renato Curi plays host to Perugia versus Sudtirol in Serie B, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Sunday 16 October 2022 at 15:15 UTC.
Current Form
Perugia's overall Serie B record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Perugia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Perugia's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Stadio Renato Curi this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Perugia are significantly better at Stadio Renato Curi than their overall form suggests.
Sudtirol (all games): 3W 2D 3L across 8 Serie B outings this term — 1.38 points per game. Last five: W W D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.38 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sudtirol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sudtirol's away record: 2W 0D 2L from 4 road trips in Serie B this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 2 away clean sheets from 4 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
On a straight form reading, Sudtirol are the stronger side — 0.68 PPG clear of the hosts (1.38 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading & In-Play
Perugia — key trading statistics (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
Sudtirol — key trading statistics (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Perugia 38% versus Sudtirol 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Perugia 38% | Sudtirol 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Perugia 1.10 xG and Sudtirol 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Perugia attack 0.817 / defence 1.058 | Sudtirol attack 0.801 / defence 1.043. League average goals — home 1.296 / away 1.112. Data: 46 Perugia games / 8 Sudtirol games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Perugia 39% | Draw 30% | Sudtirol 31%. Fair-value odds: Perugia 2.56 | Draw 3.33 | Sudtirol 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Perugia at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Sudtirol (1.38 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Perugia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.05 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Perugia 60% | Sudtirol 0% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Perugia vs Sudtirol | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadio Renato Curi • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Oct 2022, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Perugia 39% | Draw 30% | Sudtirol 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 41% | xG Perugia 1.10 / Sudtirol 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Perugia attack 0.817 / def 1.058 | Sudtirol attack 0.801 / def 1.043 | league avg home 1.296 / away 1.112 • Poisson stance: Perugia (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Perugia xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Sudtirol xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Perugia vs Sudtirol kick off?
Perugia vs Sudtirol kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 16 October 2022 at Stadio Renato Curi.
What was the final score in Perugia vs Sudtirol?
Perugia 1 - 2 Sudtirol.
Where is Perugia vs Sudtirol being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renato Curi.
What competition is Perugia vs Sudtirol part of?
Perugia vs Sudtirol is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Perugia vs Sudtirol?
Our statistical model gives Perugia a 39% chance of winning, Sudtirol a 31% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Perugia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Perugia vs Sudtirol?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Perugia and Sudtirol will score (BTTS).
Will Perugia vs Sudtirol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Perugia and Sudtirol?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Perugia and Sudtirol in?
Perugia (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Sudtirol (all comps): 3W-2D-3L in 8 | 1.38 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.38 | L5 W-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Perugia's attack at 0.82x the league average against Sudtirol's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.10 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sudtirol's attack (0.80x) against Perugia's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 46/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.7%), 1-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Perugia Win
39%
2.56
30%
3.30
31%
3.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Perugia xG
Total xG
2.05
0.94
Sudtirol xG
2.56
39%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
3.26
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.45
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
33%
3.02
Win to Nil
15%
6.58
10%
9.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.9 | 12.2 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 13.4 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 7.4 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Perugia vs Sudtirol?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Perugia and Sudtirol expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Perugia and 0.94 for Sudtirol, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Perugia vs Sudtirol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Perugia's recent record stands at 1W 1D 6L from 8 games, a 0.50 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Perugia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sudtirol, meanwhile, have gone 3W 2D 3L across 8 games — 1.38 PPG, with W-W-D-W-D in their last five. The sample for Sudtirol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sudtirol by 0.88 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Perugia heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Perugia have managed 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.50 PPG overall — Perugia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Sudtirol's away record stands at 2W 0D 2L across 4 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sudtirol come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Perugia are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Sudtirol are on 1.00 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 8 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Perugia
Blended
Sudtirol
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Perugia and Sudtirol in coming into this match?
Perugia have gone 1W 1D 6L in their last 8 games (0.50 PPG), while Sudtirol have gone 3W 2D 3L in their last 8 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Perugia at home or Sudtirol away?
Sudtirol's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Perugia at home: 1.00 PPG; Sudtirol away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Perugia
0
Draws
2
Sudtirol
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Perugia and Sudtirol?
From 2 meetings on record, Perugia have won 0, Sudtirol have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Perugia and Sudtirol last play each other?
They last met on 5 March 2023, when Sudtirol 2-1 Perugia.
Who has won more matches between Perugia and Sudtirol?
Sudtirol have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Perugia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 50% (Perugia) and 0% (Sudtirol) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Perugia) and 25% (Sudtirol).
On the defensive side: Perugia keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Sudtirol in 50%; Sudtirol in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Perugia home games / Sudtirol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Perugia play Sudtirol?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Perugia's recent matches and 0% of Sudtirol's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Perugia vs Sudtirol usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Perugia's recent games and 25% of Sudtirol's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Perugia and Sudtirol tend to score early?
Perugia have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Sudtirol in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sudtirol defy the odds to beat Perugia 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sudtirol beat Perugia 1-2 at Stadio Renato Curi, Regular Season - 9, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Perugia 1.10 xG and Sudtirol 0.94 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Sudtirol outscored their 0.94 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Perugia attack 0.82 / defence 1.06 against Sudtirol attack 0.80 / defence 1.04, drawn from 46/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Perugia 39% | Draw 30% | Sudtirol 31%, with Perugia to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Sudtirol win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Perugia 38%, Sudtirol 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Perugia's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Sudtirol's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sudtirol arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.50. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Sudtirol (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.