Perugia 0-0 Spal – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Perugia at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Perugia vs Spal fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Spal travel to Stadio Renato Curi to take on Perugia. The game is scheduled for Thursday 8 December 2022, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Perugia stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Serie B matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D W D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Perugia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Perugia at Stadio Renato Curi this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Perugia are significantly better at Stadio Renato Curi than their overall form suggests.
Spal — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Spal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Spal have gone 1W 6D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Perugia 0.80 PPG, Spal 0.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Perugia, 0 for Spal and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Mar 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Perugia in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Spal in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Perugia 49% versus Spal 55%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Perugia 32% | Spal 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Perugia 1.08 xG and Spal 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Perugia attack 0.824 / defence 1.106 | Spal attack 0.837 / defence 1.092. League average goals — home 1.200 / away 1.111. Data: 53 Perugia games / 53 Spal games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Perugia 35% | Draw 32% | Spal 33%. Fair-value odds: Perugia 2.86 | Draw 3.12 | Spal 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Perugia are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Perugia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.11 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates are neutral: Perugia 50% | Spal 50%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Perugia vs Spal | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadio Renato Curi • Kick-off: Thursday 8 Dec 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Perugia 35% | Draw 32% | Spal 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 44% | xG Perugia 1.08 / Spal 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Perugia attack 0.824 / def 1.106 | Spal attack 0.837 / def 1.092 | league avg home 1.200 / away 1.111 • Poisson stance: Perugia (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Perugia xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Spal xG
44%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Perugia vs Spal kick off?
Perugia vs Spal kicked off at 14:00 on Thursday 8 December 2022 at Stadio Renato Curi.
What was the final score in Perugia vs Spal?
Perugia 0 - 0 Spal.
Where is Perugia vs Spal being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renato Curi.
What competition is Perugia vs Spal part of?
Perugia vs Spal is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Perugia vs Spal?
Our statistical model gives Perugia a 35% chance of winning, Spal a 33% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Perugia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Perugia vs Spal?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Perugia and Spal will score (BTTS).
Will Perugia vs Spal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Perugia and Spal?
Record (2 meetings): Perugia 1W | Draws 1 | Spal 0W.
What form are Perugia and Spal in?
Perugia (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-W-D. Spal (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Perugia's attack rating (0.82) and Spal's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.08 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Spal's attack versus Perugia's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.9%), 1-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Perugia Win
35%
2.84
32%
3.10
33%
3.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Perugia xG
Total xG
2.11
1.03
Spal xG
2.84
35%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
3.07
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
34%
2.94
Win to Nil
13%
7.96
11%
9.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 12.5 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 13.5 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 7.3 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Perugia vs Spal?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Perugia and Spal expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Perugia and 1.03 for Spal, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Perugia vs Spal?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Perugia's recent record stands at 16W 19D 18L from 53 games, a 1.26 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-D in the last five. The sample for Perugia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Spal, meanwhile, have gone 12W 21D 20L across 53 games — 1.08 PPG, with D-D-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Spal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Perugia on 1.26 PPG, Spal on 1.08. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Perugia have managed 8W 9D 9L from 26 games — 1.27 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Spal's away record stands at 5W 12D 9L across 26 trips, a 1.04 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Perugia are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Spal are on 1.23 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Perugia
Blended
Spal
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Perugia and Spal in coming into this match?
Perugia have gone 16W 19D 18L in their last 53 games (1.26 PPG), while Spal have gone 12W 21D 20L in their last 53 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Perugia at home or Spal away?
Perugia's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Perugia at home: 1.27 PPG; Spal away: 1.04 PPG.
Have Perugia or Spal been keeping clean sheets recently?
Perugia have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Spal in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Perugia and Spal runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Perugia's record when hosting Spal specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Perugia
3
Draws
0
Spal
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Perugia and Spal?
From 4 meetings on record, Perugia have won 1, Spal have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Perugia and Spal last play each other?
They last met on 30 April 2023, when Spal 1-1 Perugia.
Who has won more matches between Perugia and Spal?
Perugia have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Perugia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Spal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Perugia 46%, Spal 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 23% for Perugia and 35% for Spal.
On the defensive side: Perugia keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Perugia have failed to score in 27% of games; Spal in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Perugia home games / Spal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Perugia play Spal?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Perugia's recent matches and 46% of Spal's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Perugia vs Spal usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 23% of Perugia's recent games and 35% of Spal's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Perugia and Spal tend to score early?
Perugia have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Spal in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Perugia's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Perugia and Spal finished level at 0-0 at Stadio Renato Curi, Regular Season - 16, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Perugia 1.08 xG and Spal 1.03 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Perugia fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Spal landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Perugia attack 0.82 / defence 1.11 against Spal attack 0.84 / defence 1.09, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Perugia 35% | Draw 32% | Spal 33%, with Perugia to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Perugia 32%, Spal 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Perugia's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Spal's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Perugia 1.26 PPG, Spal 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Perugia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Spal (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.85 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.