Parma 1-0 Vicenza Virtus – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Parma at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Parma vs Vicenza Virtus encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Vicenza Virtus travel to Stadio Ennio Tardini to take on Parma. The game is scheduled for Monday 1 November 2021, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Parma stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Parma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Parma's home record at Stadio Ennio Tardini: 1W 2D 1L from 4 Serie B appearances (1.25 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 4 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
Vicenza Virtus — All Games: 1W 1D 8L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. This season is still relatively young for Vicenza Virtus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vicenza Virtus's away record: 1W 0D 4L from 5 road trips in Serie B this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Parma are in the better shape of the two on current Serie B data — 0.90 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Data
Parma trading profile (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Vicenza Virtus trading profile (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 50% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Parma 70% and Vicenza Virtus 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Parma 70% | Vicenza Virtus 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Parma 1.41 xG and Vicenza Virtus 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Parma attack 0.804 / defence 1.023 | Vicenza Virtus attack 0.920 / defence 1.774. League average goals — home 0.990 / away 1.148. Vicenza Virtus bring a strong defensive rating of 1.774 — this is suppressing Parma's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 10 Parma games / 10 Vicenza Virtus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Parma 44% | Draw 29% | Vicenza Virtus 28%. Fair-value odds: Parma 2.27 | Draw 3.45 | Vicenza Virtus 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Parma at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Parma offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Parma 50% | Vicenza Virtus 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Parma vs Vicenza Virtus | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadio Ennio Tardini • Kick-off: Monday 1 Nov 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Parma 44% | Draw 29% | Vicenza Virtus 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Parma 1.41 / Vicenza Virtus 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Parma attack 0.804 / def 1.023 | Vicenza Virtus attack 0.920 / def 1.774 | league avg home 0.990 / away 1.148 • Poisson stance: Parma (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Parma xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Vicenza Virtus xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Parma vs Vicenza Virtus kick off?
Parma vs Vicenza Virtus kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 1 November 2021 at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What was the final score in Parma vs Vicenza Virtus?
Parma 1 - 0 Vicenza Virtus.
Where is Parma vs Vicenza Virtus being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What competition is Parma vs Vicenza Virtus part of?
Parma vs Vicenza Virtus is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Parma vs Vicenza Virtus?
Our statistical model gives Parma a 44% chance of winning, Vicenza Virtus a 28% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Parma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Parma vs Vicenza Virtus?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Parma and Vicenza Virtus will score (BTTS).
Will Parma vs Vicenza Virtus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Vicenza Virtus?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Parma and Vicenza Virtus in?
Parma (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-D-L-W. Vicenza Virtus (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Parma's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Vicenza Virtus's defensive record (1.77x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.41. The same calculation in reverse, Vicenza Virtus's attack versus Parma's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.0%), 0-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Parma Win
44%
2.30
29%
3.48
28%
3.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Parma xG
Total xG
2.49
1.08
Vicenza Virtus xG
2.30
44%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
3.60
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
34%
2.95
24%
4.11
Win to Nil
15%
6.78
7%
14.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 8.9 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 12.6 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.9 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Parma vs Vicenza Virtus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Parma and Vicenza Virtus expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Parma and 1.08 for Vicenza Virtus, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Parma vs Vicenza Virtus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Parma come into this having played 10 games, going 3W 4D 3L for 1.30 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-L-W. The sample for Parma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Vicenza Virtus sit at 0.40 PPG from 10 outings (1W 1D 8L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Vicenza Virtus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Parma carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.90 PPG clear of Vicenza Virtus — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Parma's home form reads 1W 2D 1L across 4 games on their own ground, a 1.25 PPG return.
Away from home, Vicenza Virtus have taken 0.75 points per game from 4 outings (1W 0D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Parma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Parma are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Vicenza Virtus are on 0.90 scored and 2.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Parma have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 10 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Parma
Blended
Vicenza Virtus
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Parma and Vicenza Virtus in coming into this match?
Parma have gone 3W 4D 3L in their last 10 games (1.30 PPG), while Vicenza Virtus have gone 1W 1D 8L in their last 10 (0.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Parma at home or Vicenza Virtus away?
Parma's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Parma at home: 1.25 PPG; Vicenza Virtus away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Parma or Vicenza Virtus been keeping clean sheets recently?
Parma have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Vicenza Virtus in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Parma and Vicenza Virtus runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Parma
0
Draws
0
Vicenza Virtus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Vicenza Virtus?
From 2 meetings on record, Parma have won 2, Vicenza Virtus have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Parma and Vicenza Virtus last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2022, when Vicenza Virtus 0-1 Parma.
Who has won more matches between Parma and Vicenza Virtus?
Parma have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Parma see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Vicenza Virtus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Parma 50%, Vicenza Virtus 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 25% for Parma and 100% for Vicenza Virtus. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 75% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Parma keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Parma home games / Vicenza Virtus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Parma play Vicenza Virtus?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Parma's games and 75% of Vicenza Virtus's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Parma vs Vicenza Virtus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 25% of Parma's matches and 100% of Vicenza Virtus's.
Do Parma and Vicenza Virtus tend to score early?
Parma have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Vicenza Virtus in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Parma edge out Vicenza Virtus 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Parma beat Vicenza Virtus 1-0 at Stadio Ennio Tardini, Regular Season - 11, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Parma 1.41 xG and Vicenza Virtus 1.08 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Vicenza Virtus landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Parma attack 0.80 / defence 1.02 against Vicenza Virtus attack 0.92 / defence 1.77, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Parma 44% | Draw 29% | Vicenza Virtus 28%, with Parma to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Parma 70%, Vicenza Virtus 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Parma's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Vicenza Virtus's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Parma arrived the stronger side — 1.30 PPG against 0.40. That form edge translated into the three points. Vicenza Virtus (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.