Parma 2-1 Venezia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Parma at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Parma vs Venezia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Venezia make the trip to Stadio Ennio Tardini to face Parma in Serie B, Regular Season - 23. The match kicks off on Saturday 3 February 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Parma (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Parma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Ennio Tardini, Parma have gone 5W 5D 0L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Venezia's overall Serie B record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: D D W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Venezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Venezia have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Parma, 1.70 for Venezia — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Parma 1W, Venezia 1W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 7 Oct 2023, ended 2–3 with Venezia winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Parma goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).
Venezia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Parma 46% versus Venezia 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Parma 43% | Venezia 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Parma 1.59 xG and Venezia 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Parma attack 1.142 / defence 0.927 | Venezia attack 1.095 / defence 1.031. League average goals — home 1.350 / away 1.206. Data: 60 Parma games / 60 Venezia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Parma 45% | Draw 26% | Venezia 29%. Fair-value odds: Parma 2.22 | Draw 3.85 | Venezia 3.45. Parma hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Parma as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Parma if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.81 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Parma 70% | Venezia 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Parma vs Venezia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadio Ennio Tardini • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Feb 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Parma 45% | Draw 26% | Venezia 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Parma 1.59 / Venezia 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Parma attack 1.142 / def 0.927 | Venezia attack 1.095 / def 1.031 | league avg home 1.350 / away 1.206 • Poisson stance: Parma (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Parma xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Venezia xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Parma vs Venezia kick off?
Parma vs Venezia kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 3 February 2024 at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What was the final score in Parma vs Venezia?
Parma 2 - 1 Venezia.
Where is Parma vs Venezia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What competition is Parma vs Venezia part of?
Parma vs Venezia is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Parma vs Venezia?
Our statistical model gives Parma a 45% chance of winning, Venezia a 29% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Parma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Parma vs Venezia?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Parma and Venezia will score (BTTS).
Will Parma vs Venezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Venezia?
Record (3 meetings): Parma 1W | Draws 1 | Venezia 1W.
What form are Parma and Venezia in?
Parma (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. Venezia (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Parma's attack at 1.14x the league average against Venezia's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.59 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Venezia's attack (1.09x) against Parma's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Parma Win
45%
2.21
26%
3.88
29%
3.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Parma xG
Total xG
2.81
1.23
Venezia xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
3.46
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
29%
3.40
20%
4.90
Win to Nil
13%
7.51
6%
16.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 7.3 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 11.7 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.3 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.9 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Parma vs Venezia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Parma and Venezia expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Parma and 1.23 for Venezia, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Parma vs Venezia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 61 outings, Parma have picked up 1.74 PPG on a 30W 16D 15L record — W-W-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Parma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Venezia's form line: 25W 15D 21L from 61 games, 1.48 PPG, last five D-D-W-L-W. The sample for Venezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.74 PPG for Parma against 1.48 for Venezia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Parma have posted 1.93 PPG from 30 outings (17W 7D 6L).
On the road, Venezia have gone 10W 8D 12L from 30 away games — 1.27 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Parma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Parma are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Venezia are on 1.49 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Venezia in 62%.
Defensively: Parma have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Parma
Blended
Venezia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Parma and Venezia in coming into this match?
Parma have gone 30W 16D 15L in their last 61 games (1.74 PPG), while Venezia have gone 25W 15D 21L in their last 61 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Parma at home or Venezia away?
Parma's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Parma at home: 1.93 PPG; Venezia away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Parma or Venezia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Parma have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Venezia in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie B, Serie A all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 January 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Parma have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Venezia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Parma
2
Draws
1
Venezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Venezia?
From 6 meetings on record, Parma have won 3, Venezia have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Parma and Venezia last play each other?
They last met on 19 January 2025, when Parma 1-1 Venezia.
Who has won more matches between Parma and Venezia?
Parma have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Venezia see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Parma 47%, Venezia 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Parma) and 47% (Venezia).
On the defensive side: Parma keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Venezia in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Parma home games / Venezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Parma play Venezia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Parma's recent matches and 53% of Venezia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Parma vs Venezia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Parma's recent games and 47% of Venezia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Parma and Venezia tend to score early?
Parma have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Venezia in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Parma edge out Venezia 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Parma beat Venezia 2-1 at Stadio Ennio Tardini, Regular Season - 23, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Parma 1.59 xG and Venezia 1.23 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Parma attack 1.14 / defence 0.93 against Venezia attack 1.09 / defence 1.03, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Parma 45% | Draw 26% | Venezia 29%, with Parma to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Parma 43%, Venezia 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Parma's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Venezia's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Parma 1.74 PPG, Venezia 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Parma win broke the near-deadlock. Venezia (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.