Parma 1-1 Pisa – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Pisa at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Parma vs Pisa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Parma and Pisa meet at Stadio Ennio Tardini in Serie B, Regular Season - 6. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 26 September 2021 at 15:15 UTC.
Form
Parma (all games): 2W 1D 2L across 5 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets in 5 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Parma have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Pisa's overall Serie B record this term: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games (3.00 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 2 clean sheets in 5 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Pisa have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Pisa are 1.60 PPG clear of Parma in recent Serie B fixtures (3.00 vs 1.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using overall form) — Parma have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Pisa in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
Parma — key trading statistics (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games; Over 3.5 in 60%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Pisa — key trading statistics (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Parma 60% and Pisa 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Parma 80% | Pisa 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Parma 1.11 xG and Pisa 1.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Parma attack 0.910 / defence 1.109 | Pisa attack 1.269 / defence 1.112. League average goals — home 1.098 / away 1.401. Pisa have an above-average attack strength of 1.269 — the away xG of 1.97 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 5 Parma games / 5 Pisa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Parma 19% | Draw 26% | Pisa 55%. Fair-value odds: Parma 5.26 | Draw 3.85 | Pisa 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Pisa (55%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.11 / 1.97) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Pisa as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.08 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Parma 60% | Pisa 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Parma vs Pisa | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stadio Ennio Tardini • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Sep 2021, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Parma 19% | Draw 26% | Pisa 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 60% | xG Parma 1.11 / Pisa 1.97 • Poisson strength factors: Parma attack 0.910 / def 1.109 | Pisa attack 1.269 / def 1.112 | league avg home 1.098 / away 1.401 • Poisson stance: Pisa (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Parma xG
Expected Goals
1.97
Pisa xG
60%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Parma vs Pisa kick off?
Parma vs Pisa kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 26 September 2021 at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What was the final score in Parma vs Pisa?
Parma 1 - 1 Pisa.
Where is Parma vs Pisa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What competition is Parma vs Pisa part of?
Parma vs Pisa is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Parma vs Pisa?
Our statistical model gives Parma a 19% chance of winning, Pisa a 55% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Pisa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Parma vs Pisa?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Parma and Pisa will score (BTTS).
Will Parma vs Pisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Pisa?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Parma and Pisa in?
Parma (all comps): 2W-1D-2L in 5 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-W-L-L. Pisa (all comps): 5W-0D-0L in 5 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Parma's attack rating (0.91) and Pisa's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.11 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Pisa's attack (1.27x) against Parma's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.97.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pisa Win
19%
5.35
26%
3.80
55%
1.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Parma xG
Total xG
3.08
1.97
Pisa xG
5.35
19%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
1.82
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
14%
7.17
33%
3.04
Win to Nil
3%
38.35
18%
5.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 9.0 | 8.9 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 10.0 | 9.9 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Parma vs Pisa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Parma and Pisa expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Parma and 1.97 for Pisa, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Parma vs Pisa?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Parma's recent record stands at 2W 1D 2L from 5 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with D-W-W-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Parma, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Pisa, meanwhile, have gone 5W 0D 0L across 5 games — 3.00 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Pisa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Pisa by 1.60 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Parma heading into this one.
Attack vs Defence
Parma are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Pisa are on 2.40 scored and 0.60 conceded. Parma's scoring rate against Pisa's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Parma have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Pisa in 60%.
Defensively: Parma have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games; Pisa in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Parma
Early Season
Pisa
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Parma and Pisa in coming into this match?
Parma have gone 2W 1D 2L in their last 5 games (1.40 PPG), while Pisa have gone 5W 0D 0L in their last 5 (3.00 PPG).
Have Parma or Pisa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Parma have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Pisa in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie B, Serie A all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Parma have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Parma have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Pisa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Parma
3
Draws
1
Pisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Pisa?
From 8 meetings on record, Parma have won 4, Pisa have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Parma and Pisa last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Parma 1-0 Pisa.
Who has won more matches between Parma and Pisa?
Parma have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Parma 60%, Pisa 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Parma and 60% for Pisa. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Parma keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Pisa in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Parma home games / Pisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Parma play Pisa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Parma's games and 60% of Pisa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Parma vs Pisa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Parma's matches and 60% of Pisa's.
Do Parma and Pisa tend to score early?
Parma have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Pisa in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Parma and Pisa share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Ennio Tardini, Regular Season - 6, as Parma and Pisa drew 1-1 in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Parma 1.11 xG and Pisa 1.97 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Pisa landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Parma attack 0.91 / defence 1.11 against Pisa attack 1.27 / defence 1.11, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Parma 19% | Draw 26% | Pisa 55%, with Pisa to win its most likely call at 55%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Parma 80%, Pisa 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Parma's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Pisa's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Pisa arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 1.40. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Parma managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward. Pisa managed 1 against a 2.40 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.