Parma 1-0 Cosenza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Parma at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Parma vs Cosenza fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cosenza make the trip to Stadio Ennio Tardini to face Parma in Serie B, Regular Season - 3. The match kicks off on Sunday 28 August 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Parma (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D W D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Parma have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Parma's home record at Stadio Ennio Tardini: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Cosenza's overall Serie B record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Cosenza have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Cosenza have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Cosenza arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.30) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Parma lead 1W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 2 Apr 2022, ended 3–1 with Parma winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Parma half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).
Cosenza half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Parma 55% versus Cosenza 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Parma 42% | Cosenza 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Parma 1.33 xG and Cosenza 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Parma attack 1.084 / defence 1.134 | Cosenza attack 0.953 / defence 0.917. League average goals — home 1.341 / away 1.085. Data: 40 Parma games / 40 Cosenza games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Parma 40% | Draw 28% | Cosenza 32%. Fair-value odds: Parma 2.50 | Draw 3.57 | Cosenza 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Parma at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Cosenza (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Parma if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.51 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Parma 70% | Cosenza 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (40 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Parma vs Cosenza | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stadio Ennio Tardini • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Aug 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Parma 40% | Draw 28% | Cosenza 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Parma 1.33 / Cosenza 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Parma attack 1.084 / def 1.134 | Cosenza attack 0.953 / def 0.917 | league avg home 1.341 / away 1.085 • Poisson stance: Parma (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Parma xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Cosenza xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Parma vs Cosenza kick off?
Parma vs Cosenza kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 28 August 2022 at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What was the final score in Parma vs Cosenza?
Parma 1 - 0 Cosenza.
Where is Parma vs Cosenza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What competition is Parma vs Cosenza part of?
Parma vs Cosenza is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Parma vs Cosenza?
Our statistical model gives Parma a 40% chance of winning, Cosenza a 32% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Parma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Parma vs Cosenza?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Parma and Cosenza will score (BTTS).
Will Parma vs Cosenza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Cosenza?
Record (2 meetings): Parma 1W | Draws 1 | Cosenza 0W.
What form are Parma and Cosenza in?
Parma (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-D-D. Cosenza (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Parma's attack rating (1.08) and Cosenza's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.33 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Cosenza's attack (0.95x) against Parma's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
The sample (40/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.8%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Parma Win
40%
2.51
28%
3.59
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Parma xG
Total xG
2.51
1.17
Cosenza xG
2.51
40%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
12%
8.10
8%
11.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 9.6 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.8 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.5 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Parma vs Cosenza?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Parma and Cosenza expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Parma and 1.17 for Cosenza, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Parma vs Cosenza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Parma's recent record stands at 11W 18D 11L from 40 games, a 1.27 PPG return, with L-D-W-D-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Parma, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Cosenza, meanwhile, have gone 11W 11D 18L across 40 games — 1.10 PPG, with W-L-W-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Cosenza, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.27 PPG for Parma against 1.10 for Cosenza. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Parma have managed 4W 10D 5L from 19 games — 1.16 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cosenza's away record stands at 1W 8D 10L across 19 trips, a 0.58 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.10 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Cosenza's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Parma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Parma are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Cosenza are on 1.00 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 40 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Parma
Early Season
Cosenza
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Parma and Cosenza in coming into this match?
Parma have gone 11W 18D 11L in their last 40 games (1.27 PPG), while Cosenza have gone 11W 11D 18L in their last 40 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Parma at home or Cosenza away?
Parma's home record (1.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Parma at home: 1.16 PPG; Cosenza away: 0.58 PPG.
Have Parma or Cosenza been keeping clean sheets recently?
Parma have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Cosenza in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Parma have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Cosenza — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Parma
3
Draws
1
Cosenza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Cosenza?
From 6 meetings on record, Parma have won 2, Cosenza have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Parma and Cosenza last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2024, when Parma 1-1 Cosenza.
Who has won more matches between Parma and Cosenza?
Parma have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Cosenza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Parma 63%, Cosenza 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Parma) and 37% (Cosenza).
On the defensive side: Parma have failed to score in 26% of games; Cosenza in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Parma home games / Cosenza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Parma play Cosenza?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Parma's games and 58% of Cosenza's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Parma vs Cosenza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Parma's recent games and 37% of Cosenza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Parma and Cosenza tend to score early?
Parma have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Cosenza in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Parma edge out Cosenza 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Parma beat Cosenza 1-0 at Stadio Ennio Tardini, Regular Season - 3, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Parma 1.33 xG and Cosenza 1.17 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Cosenza landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Parma attack 1.08 / defence 1.13 against Cosenza attack 0.95 / defence 0.92, drawn from 40/40 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Parma 40% | Draw 28% | Cosenza 32%, with Parma to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Parma 42%, Cosenza 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Parma's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Cosenza's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Parma 1.27 PPG, Cosenza 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Parma win broke the near-deadlock. Parma (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.