Palermo 0-0 Como – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Palermo at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Palermo vs Como fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Palermo host Como at Stadio Renzo Barbera in Serie B, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 8 December 2022 at 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Palermo have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W W L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Palermo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Palermo at Stadio Renzo Barbera this season: 3W 2D 3L from 8 home games — 1.38 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 8 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Renzo Barbera. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Como stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Como, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Como have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Palermo) versus 1.30 (Como). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Profile
Palermo in-play tendencies (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Como in-play tendencies (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palermo 27% versus Como 60%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Palermo 33% | Como 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palermo 1.46 xG and Como 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palermo attack 0.828 / defence 1.046 | Como attack 1.074 / defence 1.486. League average goals — home 1.186 / away 1.120. Como bring a strong defensive rating of 1.486 — this is suppressing Palermo's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 15 Palermo games / 53 Como games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Palermo 40% | Draw 28% | Como 31%. Fair-value odds: Palermo 2.50 | Draw 3.57 | Como 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Palermo are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Palermo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.72 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral: Palermo 25% | Como 80%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palermo vs Como | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadio Renzo Barbera • Kick-off: Thursday 8 Dec 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palermo 40% | Draw 28% | Como 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 56% | xG Palermo 1.46 / Como 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Palermo attack 0.828 / def 1.046 | Como attack 1.074 / def 1.486 | league avg home 1.186 / away 1.120 • Poisson stance: Palermo (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Palermo xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Como xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palermo vs Como kick off?
Palermo vs Como kicked off at 19:30 on Thursday 8 December 2022 at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
What was the final score in Palermo vs Como?
Palermo 0 - 0 Como.
Where is Palermo vs Como being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
What competition is Palermo vs Como part of?
Palermo vs Como is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Palermo vs Como?
Our statistical model gives Palermo a 40% chance of winning, Como a 31% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Palermo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palermo vs Como?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Palermo and Como will score (BTTS).
Will Palermo vs Como have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Como?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Palermo and Como in?
Palermo (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. Como (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Palermo's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Como's defensive record (1.49x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.46. The same calculation in reverse, Como's attack versus Palermo's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palermo Win
40%
2.47
28%
3.52
31%
3.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Palermo xG
Total xG
2.72
1.26
Como xG
2.47
40%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
3.21
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
28%
3.51
23%
4.30
Win to Nil
12%
8.69
7%
13.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 8.3 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.1 | 7.6 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.8 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palermo vs Como?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Palermo and Como expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Palermo and 1.26 for Como, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Palermo vs Como?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Palermo come into this having played 15 games, going 5W 3D 7L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-W. The sample for Palermo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Como sit at 1.00 PPG from 15 outings (3W 6D 6L), a run that reads L-W-D-D-D across their last five. The sample for Como is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Palermo on 1.20 PPG, Como on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Palermo's home form reads 2W 2D 3L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.14 PPG return.
Away from home, Como have taken 0.43 points per game from 7 outings (0W 3D 4L). That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Como's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palermo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Palermo are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Como are on 1.13 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Palermo have seen both teams score in 27% of their recent games; Como in 60%.
Defensively: Palermo have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 15 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palermo
Blended
Como
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palermo and Como in coming into this match?
Palermo have gone 5W 3D 7L in their last 15 games (1.20 PPG), while Como have gone 3W 6D 6L in their last 15 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palermo at home or Como away?
Palermo's home record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palermo at home: 1.14 PPG; Como away: 0.43 PPG.
Have Palermo or Como been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palermo have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Como in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Palermo and Como runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Feb 2024, when Palermo won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Palermo's record when hosting Como specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Palermo
3
Draws
0
Como
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Como?
From 4 meetings on record, Palermo have won 1, Como have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Palermo and Como last play each other?
They last met on 17 February 2024, when Palermo 3-0 Como.
Who has won more matches between Palermo and Como?
Palermo have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Palermo see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches.
Como are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palermo 29%, Como 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Palermo) and 57% (Como).
On the defensive side: Palermo keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Palermo have failed to score in 43% of games; Como in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palermo home games / Como away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palermo play Como?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Palermo's recent matches and 71% of Como's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Palermo vs Como usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Palermo's recent games and 57% of Como's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Palermo and Como tend to score early?
Palermo have had a goal before half-time in 43% of their recent matches, Como in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Palermo's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palermo and Como finished level at 0-0 at Stadio Renzo Barbera, Regular Season - 16, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palermo 1.46 xG and Como 1.26 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Palermo fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Como landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palermo attack 0.83 / defence 1.05 against Como attack 1.07 / defence 1.49, drawn from 15/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palermo 40% | Draw 28% | Como 31%, with Palermo to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palermo 33%, Como 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palermo's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 27% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Como's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Palermo 1.20 PPG, Como 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Palermo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. Como (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.43 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.