Palermo 2-1 Cagliari – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Palermo take on Cagliari.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cagliari make the trip to Stadio Renzo Barbera to face Palermo in Serie B, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Sunday 18 December 2022 at 17:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Palermo have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L L W D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Palermo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Palermo's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 3L across 9 games at Stadio Renzo Barbera this term (1.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 9 home games (56%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Renzo Barbera. At home, both teams have scored in only 22% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Cagliari (all games): 2W 6D 2L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: D D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Cagliari, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Cagliari have posted 1W 6D 3L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Palermo against 1.20 for Cagliari. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading
Palermo half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 38% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 41% of games.
Cagliari half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palermo 29% versus Cagliari 65%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Palermo 29% | Cagliari 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palermo 0.99 xG and Cagliari 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palermo attack 0.751 / defence 0.931 | Cagliari attack 0.913 / defence 1.176. League average goals — home 1.126 / away 1.094. Palermo's attack strength of 0.751 is below the league average — the 0.99 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 17 Palermo games / 17 Cagliari games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Palermo 34% | Draw 36% | Cagliari 30%. Fair-value odds: Palermo 2.94 | Draw 2.78 | Cagliari 3.33. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 1.93. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.93 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 30% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.93 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 30% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Palermo 22% | Cagliari 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palermo vs Cagliari | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stadio Renzo Barbera • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Dec 2022, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palermo 34% | Draw 36% | Cagliari 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 41% | xG Palermo 0.99 / Cagliari 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Palermo attack 0.751 / def 0.931 | Cagliari attack 0.913 / def 1.176 | league avg home 1.126 / away 1.094 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Palermo xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Cagliari xG
41%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palermo vs Cagliari kick off?
Palermo vs Cagliari kicked off at 17:45 on Sunday 18 December 2022 at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
What was the final score in Palermo vs Cagliari?
Palermo 2 - 1 Cagliari.
Where is Palermo vs Cagliari being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
What competition is Palermo vs Cagliari part of?
Palermo vs Cagliari is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Palermo vs Cagliari?
Our statistical model gives Palermo a 34% chance of winning, Cagliari a 30% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Palermo vs Cagliari?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Palermo and Cagliari will score (BTTS).
Will Palermo vs Cagliari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Cagliari?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Palermo and Cagliari in?
Palermo (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-D-D. Cagliari (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Palermo's attack rating (0.75) and Cagliari's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 0.99 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Cagliari's attack (0.91x) against Palermo's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 1-0 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
34%
2.98
36%
2.76
30%
3.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
14.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Palermo xG
Total xG
1.93
0.93
Cagliari xG
2.98
34%
Home win
2.76
36%
Draw
3.32
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.47
59%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
39%
2.53
37%
2.70
Win to Nil
13%
7.55
11%
8.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.6 | 13.6 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.5 | 13.5 | 6.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 6.7 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palermo vs Cagliari?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.3%.
How many goals are Palermo and Cagliari expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Palermo and 0.93 for Cagliari, a combined total of 1.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Palermo vs Cagliari?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Palermo come into this having played 17 games, going 5W 5D 7L for 1.18 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-D-D. The sample for Palermo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Cagliari sit at 1.29 PPG from 17 outings (5W 7D 5L), a run that reads D-D-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Cagliari is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.18 PPG for Palermo against 1.29 for Cagliari. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Palermo's home form reads 2W 3D 3L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.12 PPG return.
Away from home, Cagliari have taken 0.88 points per game from 8 outings (1W 4D 3L). That's a step down from their 1.29 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Cagliari's season.
Attack vs Defence
Palermo are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Cagliari are on 1.18 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Palermo have seen both teams score in 29% of their recent games; Cagliari in 65%.
Defensively: Palermo have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palermo
Blended
Cagliari
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palermo and Cagliari in coming into this match?
Palermo have gone 5W 5D 7L in their last 17 games (1.18 PPG), while Cagliari have gone 5W 7D 5L in their last 17 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palermo at home or Cagliari away?
Palermo's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palermo at home: 1.12 PPG; Cagliari away: 0.88 PPG.
Have Palermo or Cagliari been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palermo have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Cagliari in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Palermo
0
Draws
1
Cagliari
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Cagliari?
From 2 meetings on record, Palermo have won 1, Cagliari have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Palermo and Cagliari last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2023, when Cagliari 2-1 Palermo.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Palermo see a goal before the break in 38% of their matches.
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palermo 25%, Cagliari 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Palermo and 38% for Cagliari.
On the defensive side: Palermo keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Palermo have failed to score in 50% of games; Cagliari in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palermo home games / Cagliari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palermo play Cagliari?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Palermo's recent matches and 50% of Cagliari's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Palermo vs Cagliari usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Palermo's recent games and 38% of Cagliari's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Palermo and Cagliari tend to score early?
Palermo have had a goal before half-time in 38% of their recent matches, Cagliari in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Palermo edge out Cagliari 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palermo beat Cagliari 2-1 at Stadio Renzo Barbera, Regular Season - 18, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palermo 0.99 xG and Cagliari 0.93 xG, a combined 1.93. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Palermo beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palermo attack 0.75 / defence 0.93 against Cagliari attack 0.91 / defence 1.18, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palermo 34% | Draw 36% | Cagliari 30%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The actual Palermo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palermo 29%, Cagliari 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palermo's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Cagliari's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Palermo 1.18 PPG, Cagliari 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Palermo win broke the near-deadlock. Palermo (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm. Cagliari (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.