Padova vs Vicenza Virtus – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Padova at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Padova vs Vicenza Virtus fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Euganeo plays host to Padova versus Vicenza Virtus in Serie B, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Saturday 5 December 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Padova (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Padova have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Padova at Stadio Euganeo this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Vicenza Virtus have collected 1.33 PPG across 3 Serie B outings this season: 1W 1D 1L. Last five: W L D. They are scoring at 1.67 per game and conceding 2.33. Conceding 2.33 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Vicenza Virtus have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Padova against 1.33 for Vicenza Virtus. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
Padova goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games.
Vicenza Virtus goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Padova 67% and Vicenza Virtus 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Padova 33% | Vicenza Virtus 100%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Padova 1.70 xG and Vicenza Virtus 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Padova attack 0.893 / defence 0.965 | Vicenza Virtus attack 0.843 / defence 1.364. League average goals — home 1.391 / away 1.158. Vicenza Virtus bring a strong defensive rating of 1.364 — this is suppressing Padova's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 41 Padova games / 3 Vicenza Virtus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Padova 55% | Draw 24% | Vicenza Virtus 21%. Fair-value odds: Padova 1.82 | Draw 4.17 | Vicenza Virtus 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Padova (55%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Padova as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.64 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Padova 50% | Vicenza Virtus 67%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Padova vs Vicenza Virtus | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadio Euganeo • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Dec 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Padova 55% | Draw 24% | Vicenza Virtus 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 50% | xG Padova 1.70 / Vicenza Virtus 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Padova attack 0.893 / def 0.965 | Vicenza Virtus attack 0.843 / def 1.364 | league avg home 1.391 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: Padova (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Padova xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Vicenza Virtus xG
50%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Padova vs Vicenza Virtus kick off?
Padova vs Vicenza Virtus is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 5 December 2026 at Stadio Euganeo.
Where is Padova vs Vicenza Virtus being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Euganeo.
What competition is Padova vs Vicenza Virtus part of?
Padova vs Vicenza Virtus is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Padova vs Vicenza Virtus?
Our statistical model gives Padova a 55% chance of winning, Vicenza Virtus a 21% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Padova the favourite.
Will both teams score in Padova vs Vicenza Virtus?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Padova and Vicenza Virtus will score (BTTS).
Will Padova vs Vicenza Virtus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Padova and Vicenza Virtus?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Padova and Vicenza Virtus in?
Padova (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. Vicenza Virtus (all comps): 1W-1D-1L in 3 | 1.33 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 2.33 | L5 W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Padova's attack rating (0.89) and Vicenza Virtus's defence rating (1.36), the model arrives at 1.70 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Vicenza Virtus's attack (0.84x) against Padova's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 41/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 2-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Padova Win
55%
1.82
24%
4.16
21%
4.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Padova xG
Total xG
2.64
0.94
Vicenza Virtus xG
1.82
55%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
4.79
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
18%
5.45
Win to Nil
21%
4.66
4%
26.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 6.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.1 | 11.4 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.7 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Padova vs Vicenza Virtus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Padova and Vicenza Virtus expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Padova and 0.94 for Vicenza Virtus, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Padova vs Vicenza Virtus?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 3 outings, Padova have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 1W 1D 1L record — W-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Padova, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Vicenza Virtus's form line: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games, 1.33 PPG, last five W-L-D. It's still early in the season for Vicenza Virtus, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Padova against 1.33 for Vicenza Virtus. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Padova are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Vicenza Virtus are on 1.67 scored and 2.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Padova have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Vicenza Virtus in 67%.
Last 3 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Padova
Early Season
Vicenza Virtus
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Padova and Vicenza Virtus in coming into this match?
Padova have gone 1W 1D 1L in their last 3 games (1.33 PPG), while Vicenza Virtus have gone 1W 1D 1L in their last 3 (1.33 PPG).
Have Padova or Vicenza Virtus been keeping clean sheets recently?
Padova have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Vicenza Virtus in 0%.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Padova are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Vicenza Virtus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Padova, 67% for Vicenza Virtus — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 33% for Padova and 100% for Vicenza Virtus. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Padova keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Vicenza Virtus in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Padova home games / Vicenza Virtus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Padova play Vicenza Virtus?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Padova's games and 67% of Vicenza Virtus's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Padova vs Vicenza Virtus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 33% of Padova's matches and 100% of Vicenza Virtus's.
Do Padova and Vicenza Virtus tend to score early?
Padova have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Vicenza Virtus in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.