Padova vs Pisa – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pisa at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Padova vs Pisa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Padova host Pisa at Stadio Euganeo in Serie B, Regular Season - 36. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 1 May 2027 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Padova — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Padova have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Padova at Stadio Euganeo this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pisa stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Pisa have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Pisa away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Padova at 1.30 PPG versus Pisa's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Padova, 0 for Pisa and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 23 Aug 2026, ended 1–0 with Padova winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Padova in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Pisa in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); they fail to score in 49% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Padova 51% versus Pisa 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Padova 40% | Pisa 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Padova 0.97 xG and Pisa 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Padova attack 0.788 / defence 1.050 | Pisa attack 1.255 / defence 0.918. League average goals — home 1.343 / away 1.271. Padova's attack strength of 0.788 is below the league average — the 0.97 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Pisa have an above-average attack strength of 1.255 — the away xG of 1.67 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 45 Padova games / 7 Pisa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Padova 21% | Draw 26% | Pisa 53%. Fair-value odds: Padova 4.76 | Draw 3.85 | Pisa 1.89. Pisa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Pisa at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pisa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.65 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Padova 40% | Pisa 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Padova vs Pisa | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Stadio Euganeo • Kick-off: Saturday 1 May 2027, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Padova 21% | Draw 26% | Pisa 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 52% | xG Padova 0.97 / Pisa 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: Padova attack 0.788 / def 1.050 | Pisa attack 1.255 / def 0.918 | league avg home 1.343 / away 1.271 • Poisson stance: Pisa (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Padova xG
Expected Goals
1.67
Pisa xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Padova vs Pisa kick off?
Padova vs Pisa is scheduled to kick off at 13:00 on Saturday 1 May 2027 at Stadio Euganeo.
Where is Padova vs Pisa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Euganeo.
What competition is Padova vs Pisa part of?
Padova vs Pisa is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Padova vs Pisa?
Our statistical model gives Padova a 21% chance of winning, Pisa a 53% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Pisa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Padova vs Pisa?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Padova and Pisa will score (BTTS).
Will Padova vs Pisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Padova and Pisa?
Record (1 meetings): Padova 1W | Draws 0 | Pisa 0W.
What form are Padova and Pisa in?
Padova (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Pisa (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Padova's attack at 0.79x the league average against Pisa's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 0.97 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Pisa's attack versus Padova's defence, projects 1.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.4%), 0-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pisa Win
21%
4.82
26%
3.78
53%
1.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
0 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Padova xG
Total xG
2.65
1.67
Pisa xG
4.82
21%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
1.89
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
19%
5.33
38%
2.64
Win to Nil
4%
25.70
20%
5.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 11.9 | 9.9 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.5 | 9.7 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 5.6 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Padova vs Pisa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Padova and Pisa expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Padova and 1.67 for Pisa, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Padova vs Pisa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 45 outings, Padova have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 14W 11D 20L record — L-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Padova, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Pisa's form line: 6W 13D 26L from 45 games, 0.69 PPG, last five W-L-D-W-W. It's still early in the season for Pisa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Padova are the form team by 0.49 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Pisa.
Venue Form
On home soil, Padova have posted 1.32 PPG from 22 outings (7W 8D 7L).
On the road, Pisa have gone 2W 9D 11L from 22 away games — 0.68 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Padova come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Padova are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Pisa are on 0.89 scored and 1.78 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Padova
Early Season
Pisa
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Padova and Pisa in coming into this match?
Padova have gone 14W 11D 20L in their last 45 games (1.18 PPG), while Pisa have gone 6W 13D 26L in their last 45 (0.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Padova at home or Pisa away?
Padova's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Padova at home: 1.32 PPG; Pisa away: 0.68 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
1 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. The two were last together as recently as 23 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
1
Padova
0
Draws
0
Pisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Padova and Pisa?
From 1 meetings on record, Padova have won 1, Pisa have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Padova and Pisa last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2026, when Pisa 0-1 Padova.
Who has won more matches between Padova and Pisa?
Padova have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Padova are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Padova 59%, Pisa 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Padova) and 73% (Pisa).
On the defensive side: Pisa in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Padova home games / Pisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Padova play Pisa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Padova's recent matches and 50% of Pisa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Padova vs Pisa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Padova's recent games and 73% of Pisa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Padova and Pisa tend to score early?
Padova have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Pisa in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.