Padova vs Benevento – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Padova at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Padova vs Benevento encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Benevento make the trip to Stadio Euganeo to face Padova in Serie B, Regular Season - 29. The match kicks off on Saturday 6 March 2027 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Padova's overall Serie B record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W W W D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Padova have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadio Euganeo, Padova have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Benevento have collected 0.33 PPG across 3 Serie B outings this season: 0W 1D 2L. Last five: L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.67 per game is modest, conceding 1.33 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Benevento have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form ledger tips toward Padova. A 1.27 PPG lead over Benevento (1.60 vs 0.33) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading
Padova half-time and goal-timing data (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games.
Benevento half-time and goal-timing data (3 games): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Padova 67% and Benevento 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Padova 33% | Benevento 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Padova 1.37 xG and Benevento 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Padova attack 0.893 / defence 0.965 | Benevento attack 0.696 / defence 1.106. League average goals — home 1.391 / away 1.158. Data: 41 Padova games / 3 Benevento games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Padova 51% | Draw 28% | Benevento 21%. Fair-value odds: Padova 1.96 | Draw 3.57 | Benevento 4.76. Padova hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Padova are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Padova if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.15 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Padova 50% | Benevento 67%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Padova vs Benevento | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stadio Euganeo • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Mar 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Padova 51% | Draw 28% | Benevento 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 40% | xG Padova 1.37 / Benevento 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Padova attack 0.893 / def 0.965 | Benevento attack 0.696 / def 1.106 | league avg home 1.391 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: Padova (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Padova xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Benevento xG
40%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Padova vs Benevento kick off?
Padova vs Benevento is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 6 March 2027 at Stadio Euganeo.
Where is Padova vs Benevento being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Euganeo.
What competition is Padova vs Benevento part of?
Padova vs Benevento is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Padova vs Benevento?
Our statistical model gives Padova a 51% chance of winning, Benevento a 21% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Padova the favourite.
Will both teams score in Padova vs Benevento?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Padova and Benevento will score (BTTS).
Will Padova vs Benevento have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Padova and Benevento?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Padova and Benevento in?
Padova (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. Benevento (all comps): 0W-1D-2L in 3 | 0.33 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 1.33 | L5 L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Padova's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Benevento's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.37. Flip it around — Benevento's attack (0.70x) against Padova's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 0.78.
These ratings are built from 41/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.0%), 0-0 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Padova Win
51%
1.96
28%
3.60
21%
4.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Padova xG
Total xG
2.15
0.78
Benevento xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
4.72
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.48
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
46%
2.17
25%
3.95
Win to Nil
23%
4.26
5%
18.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 9.0 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.0 | 12.4 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.0 | 8.5 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.0 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Padova vs Benevento?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Padova and Benevento expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Padova and 0.78 for Benevento, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Padova vs Benevento?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 3 outings, Padova have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 1W 1D 1L record — W-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Padova, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Benevento's form line: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games, 0.33 PPG, last five L-D-L. It's still early in the season for Benevento, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Padova are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Benevento.
Attack vs Defence
Padova are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Benevento are on 0.67 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Padova have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Benevento in 67%.
Last 3 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Padova
Early Season
Benevento
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Padova and Benevento in coming into this match?
Padova have gone 1W 1D 1L in their last 3 games (1.33 PPG), while Benevento have gone 0W 1D 2L in their last 3 (0.33 PPG).
Have Padova or Benevento been keeping clean sheets recently?
Padova have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Benevento in 0%.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Padova are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Benevento see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Padova, 67% for Benevento — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Padova and 33% for Benevento.
On the defensive side: Padova keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Benevento in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Padova home games / Benevento away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Padova play Benevento?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Padova's games and 67% of Benevento's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Padova vs Benevento usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Padova's recent games and 33% of Benevento's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Padova and Benevento tend to score early?
Padova have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Benevento in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.