Cosenza 3-1 Como – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cosenza at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cosenza vs Como encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Cosenza and Como meet at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla in Serie B, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Friday 30 September 2022 at 19:30 UTC.
Current Form
Cosenza's overall Serie B record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W L D L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Cosenza have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cosenza's home record at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Como have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Como have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Como have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form favours the hosts. Cosenza's 1.50 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Como's 0.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Cosenza, 1 for Como and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Feb 2022, ended 1–2 with Como winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Cosenza half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Como half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cosenza 52% versus Como 64%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cosenza 36% | Como 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cosenza 1.38 xG and Como 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cosenza attack 0.931 / defence 1.035 | Como attack 1.087 / defence 1.180. League average goals — home 1.258 / away 1.057. Data: 44 Cosenza games / 44 Como games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cosenza 41% | Draw 26% | Como 32%. Fair-value odds: Cosenza 2.44 | Draw 3.85 | Como 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cosenza are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cosenza if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.57 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Cosenza 50% | Como 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cosenza vs Como | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla • Kick-off: Friday 30 Sep 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cosenza 41% | Draw 26% | Como 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Cosenza 1.38 / Como 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Cosenza attack 0.931 / def 1.035 | Como attack 1.087 / def 1.180 | league avg home 1.258 / away 1.057 • Poisson stance: Cosenza (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Cosenza xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Como xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cosenza vs Como kick off?
Cosenza vs Como kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 30 September 2022 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What was the final score in Cosenza vs Como?
Cosenza 3 - 1 Como.
Where is Cosenza vs Como being played?
The match is being played at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What competition is Cosenza vs Como part of?
Cosenza vs Como is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cosenza vs Como?
Our statistical model gives Cosenza a 41% chance of winning, Como a 32% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Cosenza the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cosenza vs Como?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Cosenza and Como will score (BTTS).
Will Cosenza vs Como have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Como?
Record (2 meetings): Cosenza 1W | Draws 0 | Como 1W.
What form are Cosenza and Como in?
Cosenza (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-D-L-D. Como (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Cosenza's attack rating (0.93) and Como's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.38 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Como's attack (1.09x) against Cosenza's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cosenza Win
41%
2.42
26%
3.79
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Cosenza xG
Total xG
2.57
1.19
Como xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
30%
3.28
25%
3.98
Win to Nil
13%
7.95
8%
12.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 9.1 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.6 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.7 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cosenza vs Como?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Cosenza and Como expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Cosenza and 1.19 for Como, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Cosenza vs Como?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 44 outings, Cosenza have picked up 1.05 PPG on a 11W 13D 20L record — W-L-D-L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Cosenza, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Como's form line: 11W 17D 16L from 44 games, 1.14 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-D. It's still early in the season for Como, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.05 PPG for Cosenza against 1.14 for Como. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Cosenza have posted 1.43 PPG from 21 outings (9W 3D 9L).
On the road, Como have gone 6W 8D 7L from 21 away games — 1.24 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Cosenza are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Como are on 1.25 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Como in 64%.
Last 44 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cosenza
Early Season
Como
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cosenza and Como in coming into this match?
Cosenza have gone 11W 13D 20L in their last 44 games (1.05 PPG), while Como have gone 11W 17D 16L in their last 44 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cosenza at home or Como away?
Cosenza's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cosenza at home: 1.43 PPG; Como away: 1.24 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Como won 5-1 on 25 Feb 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cosenza have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Como — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Cosenza
1
Draws
3
Como
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Como?
From 6 meetings on record, Cosenza have won 2, Como have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cosenza and Como last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2024, when Como 1-1 Cosenza.
Who has won more matches between Cosenza and Como?
Como have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cosenza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Como are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cosenza 43%, Como 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Cosenza) and 52% (Como).
On the defensive side: Cosenza have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cosenza home games / Como away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cosenza play Como?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 43% of Cosenza's games and 71% of Como's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cosenza vs Como usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Cosenza's recent games and 52% of Como's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cosenza and Como tend to score early?
Cosenza have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Como in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cosenza cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Como.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cosenza beat Como 3-1 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla, Regular Season - 7, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cosenza 1.38 xG and Como 1.19 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Cosenza beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cosenza attack 0.93 / defence 1.03 against Como attack 1.09 / defence 1.18, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cosenza 41% | Draw 26% | Como 32%, with Cosenza to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cosenza 36%, Como 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cosenza's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Como's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cosenza 1.05 PPG, Como 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cosenza win broke the near-deadlock. Cosenza (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm. Como (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.76 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.