Cosenza 1-0 Bari – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bari at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cosenza vs Bari fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 36 sees Bari travel to Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla to take on Cosenza. The game is scheduled for Thursday 1 May 2025, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cosenza stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Serie B matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L D D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Cosenza at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Across all Serie B games this season, Bari have recorded 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Bari away from home this season: 1W 5D 4L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Cosenza 0.90 PPG, Bari 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Cosenza have won 1, Bari 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Cosenza in-play tendencies (72 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Bari in-play tendencies (72 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cosenza 53% versus Bari 61%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cosenza 42% | Bari 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cosenza 0.94 xG and Bari 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cosenza attack 0.713 / defence 1.103 | Bari attack 0.959 / defence 1.018. League average goals — home 1.297 / away 1.186. Cosenza's attack strength of 0.713 is below the league average — the 0.94 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 72 Cosenza games / 72 Bari games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cosenza 26% | Draw 32% | Bari 42%. Fair-value odds: Cosenza 3.85 | Draw 3.12 | Bari 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bari are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bari offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.20 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates are neutral: Cosenza 40% | Bari 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cosenza vs Bari | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla • Kick-off: Thursday 1 May 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cosenza 26% | Draw 32% | Bari 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Cosenza 0.94 / Bari 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Cosenza attack 0.713 / def 1.103 | Bari attack 0.959 / def 1.018 | league avg home 1.297 / away 1.186 • Poisson stance: Bari (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Cosenza xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Bari xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cosenza vs Bari kick off?
Cosenza vs Bari kicked off at 14:00 on Thursday 1 May 2025 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What was the final score in Cosenza vs Bari?
Cosenza 1 - 0 Bari.
Where is Cosenza vs Bari being played?
The match is being played at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What competition is Cosenza vs Bari part of?
Cosenza vs Bari is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cosenza vs Bari?
Our statistical model gives Cosenza a 26% chance of winning, Bari a 42% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Bari the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cosenza vs Bari?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Cosenza and Bari will score (BTTS).
Will Cosenza vs Bari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Bari?
Record (5 meetings): Cosenza 1W | Draws 2 | Bari 2W.
What form are Cosenza and Bari in?
Cosenza (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-D-L. Bari (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Cosenza's attack rating (0.71) and Bari's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 0.94 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bari's attack versus Cosenza's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 72/72 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.8%), 0-1 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bari Win
26%
3.83
32%
3.12
42%
2.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Cosenza xG
Total xG
2.20
1.25
Bari xG
3.83
26%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
2.39
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
29%
3.51
39%
2.56
Win to Nil
7%
13.45
16%
6.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 14.0 | 8.8 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 13.1 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 6.2 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cosenza vs Bari?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Cosenza and Bari expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Cosenza and 1.25 for Bari, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Cosenza vs Bari?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cosenza come into this having played 72 games, going 17W 27D 28L for 1.08 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-D-L.
On the other side, Bari sit at 1.18 PPG from 72 outings (17W 34D 21L), a run that reads D-L-D-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cosenza on 1.08 PPG, Bari on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Cosenza's home form reads 8W 14D 13L across 35 games on their own ground, a 1.09 PPG return.
Away from home, Bari have taken 0.89 points per game from 35 outings (5W 16D 14L).
Goals in Recent Form
Cosenza are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Bari are on 1.11 scored and 1.19 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bari in 61%.
Last 72 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cosenza
Current Season
Bari
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cosenza and Bari in coming into this match?
Cosenza have gone 17W 27D 28L in their last 72 games (1.08 PPG), while Bari have gone 17W 34D 21L in their last 72 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cosenza at home or Bari away?
Cosenza's home record (1.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cosenza at home: 1.09 PPG; Bari away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 May 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Apr 2024, when Cosenza won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cosenza's record when hosting Bari specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Cosenza
2
Draws
2
Bari
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Bari?
From 6 meetings on record, Cosenza have won 2, Bari have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cosenza and Bari last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2025, when Cosenza 1-0 Bari.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cosenza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Bari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cosenza 57%, Bari 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Cosenza) and 40% (Bari).
On the defensive side: Cosenza have failed to score in 29% of games; Bari in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cosenza home games / Bari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cosenza play Bari?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Cosenza's games and 57% of Bari's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cosenza vs Bari usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Cosenza's recent games and 40% of Bari's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cosenza and Bari tend to score early?
Cosenza have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Bari in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cosenza defy the odds to beat Bari 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cosenza beat Bari 1-0 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla, Regular Season - 36, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cosenza 0.94 xG and Bari 1.25 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Bari landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cosenza attack 0.71 / defence 1.10 against Bari attack 0.96 / defence 1.02, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cosenza 26% | Draw 32% | Bari 42%, with Bari to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Cosenza win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cosenza 42%, Bari 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cosenza's trading profile (72 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Bari's trading profile (72 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cosenza 1.08 PPG, Bari 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cosenza win broke the near-deadlock. Cosenza (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line. Bari (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.