Monza 1-1 Parma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Monza at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Monza vs Parma fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Monza and Parma meet at U-Power Stadium in Serie B, Regular Season - 27. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 2 March 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
Monza (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Monza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Monza's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at U-Power Stadium this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Monza are significantly better at U-Power Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Parma have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: W L L D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Parma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Parma's away record: 2W 5D 3L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Monza 0W, Parma 0W, 1D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 0.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 Oct 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Monza half-time and goal-timing data (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Parma half-time and goal-timing data (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Monza 58% versus Parma 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Monza 46% | Parma 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Monza 1.45 xG and Parma 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Monza attack 1.250 / defence 1.129 | Parma attack 0.765 / defence 1.132. League average goals — home 1.026 / away 1.126. Data: 26 Monza games / 26 Parma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Monza 46% | Draw 32% | Parma 23%. Fair-value odds: Monza 2.17 | Draw 3.12 | Parma 4.35. Monza hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Monza at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Monza if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.42 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Monza 50% | Parma 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Monza vs Parma | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: U-Power Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 2 Mar 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Monza 46% | Draw 32% | Parma 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Monza 1.45 / Parma 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Monza attack 1.250 / def 1.129 | Parma attack 0.765 / def 1.132 | league avg home 1.026 / away 1.126 • Poisson stance: Monza (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Monza xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Parma xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Monza vs Parma kick off?
Monza vs Parma kicked off at 17:30 on Wednesday 2 March 2022 at U-Power Stadium.
What was the final score in Monza vs Parma?
Monza 1 - 1 Parma.
Where is Monza vs Parma being played?
The match is being played at U-Power Stadium.
What competition is Monza vs Parma part of?
Monza vs Parma is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Monza vs Parma?
Our statistical model gives Monza a 46% chance of winning, Parma a 23% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Monza the favourite.
Will both teams score in Monza vs Parma?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Monza and Parma will score (BTTS).
Will Monza vs Parma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Monza and Parma?
Record (1 meetings): Monza 0W | Draws 1 | Parma 0W.
What form are Monza and Parma in?
Monza (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Parma (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Monza's attack rating (1.25) and Parma's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.45 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Parma's attack (0.77x) against Monza's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.2%), 0-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Monza Win
46%
2.19
32%
3.17
23%
4.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Monza xG
Total xG
2.42
0.97
Parma xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
4.39
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
23%
4.27
Win to Nil
17%
5.79
5%
18.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 8.6 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 12.5 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Monza vs Parma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Monza and Parma expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Monza and 0.97 for Parma, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Monza vs Parma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Monza come into this having played 26 games, going 12W 8D 6L for 1.69 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-L. The sample for Monza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Parma sit at 1.23 PPG from 26 outings (7W 11D 8L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Parma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Monza carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.46 PPG clear of Parma — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Monza's home form reads 9W 2D 2L across 13 games on their own ground, a 2.23 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.69 PPG overall — Monza are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Parma have taken 1.15 points per game from 13 outings (3W 6D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Monza come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Monza are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Parma are on 1.27 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Last 26 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Monza
Blended
Parma
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Monza and Parma in coming into this match?
Monza have gone 12W 8D 6L in their last 26 games (1.69 PPG), while Parma have gone 7W 11D 8L in their last 26 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Monza at home or Parma away?
Monza's home record (2.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Monza at home: 2.23 PPG; Parma away: 1.15 PPG.
Have Monza or Parma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Monza have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Parma in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie B, Serie A all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Monza have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Parma — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Monza
3
Draws
1
Parma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Monza and Parma?
From 4 meetings on record, Monza have won 0, Parma have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Monza and Parma last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2025, when Monza 1-1 Parma.
Who has won more matches between Monza and Parma?
Parma have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Monza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Monza 54%, Parma 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Monza) and 62% (Parma). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Monza keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Parma in 38%; Parma in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Monza home games / Parma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Monza play Parma?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Monza's recent matches and 54% of Parma's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Monza vs Parma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Monza's matches and 62% of Parma's.
Do Monza and Parma tend to score early?
Monza have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Parma in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Monza and Parma share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at U-Power Stadium, Regular Season - 27, as Monza and Parma drew 1-1 in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Monza 1.45 xG and Parma 0.97 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Monza attack 1.25 / defence 1.13 against Parma attack 0.77 / defence 1.13, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Monza 46% | Draw 32% | Parma 23%, with Monza to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Monza 46%, Parma 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Monza's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Parma's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Monza arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.23. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Monza (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.92 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.