Modena 1-2 Venezia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Modena at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Modena vs Venezia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Modena and Venezia meet at Stadio Alberto Braglia in Serie B, Regular Season - 17. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 20 December 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Modena's overall Serie B record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D D L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Modena, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Alberto Braglia, Modena have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Venezia have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Venezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Venezia's away record: 1W 6D 3L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Venezia arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.50) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Modena, 2 for Venezia and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.2 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 18 Feb 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Modena — key trading statistics (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Venezia — key trading statistics (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Modena 57% versus Venezia 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Modena 48% | Venezia 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Modena 1.37 xG and Venezia 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Modena attack 1.024 / defence 0.903 | Venezia attack 0.912 / defence 1.002. League average goals — home 1.333 / away 1.063. Data: 54 Modena games / 16 Venezia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Modena 47% | Draw 30% | Venezia 23%. Fair-value odds: Modena 2.13 | Draw 3.33 | Venezia 4.35. Modena hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Modena are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Venezia (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Modena if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.24 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 4.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates are neutral: Modena 50% | Venezia 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Modena vs Venezia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Braglia • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Dec 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Modena 47% | Draw 30% | Venezia 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Modena 1.37 / Venezia 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Modena attack 1.024 / def 0.903 | Venezia attack 0.912 / def 1.002 | league avg home 1.333 / away 1.063 • Poisson stance: Modena (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Modena xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Venezia xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Modena vs Venezia kick off?
Modena vs Venezia kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 20 December 2025 at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What was the final score in Modena vs Venezia?
Modena 1 - 2 Venezia.
Where is Modena vs Venezia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What competition is Modena vs Venezia part of?
Modena vs Venezia is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Modena vs Venezia?
Our statistical model gives Modena a 47% chance of winning, Venezia a 23% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Modena the favourite.
Will both teams score in Modena vs Venezia?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Modena and Venezia will score (BTTS).
Will Modena vs Venezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Venezia?
Record (4 meetings): Modena 0W | Draws 2 | Venezia 2W.
What form are Modena and Venezia in?
Modena (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-L-L-W. Venezia (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Modena's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Venezia's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.37. Flip it around — Venezia's attack (0.91x) against Modena's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from 54/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.9%), 0-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Modena Win
47%
2.12
30%
3.32
23%
4.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Modena xG
Total xG
2.24
0.88
Venezia xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
4.38
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
42%
2.40
25%
3.93
Win to Nil
20%
5.10
6%
17.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 9.3 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.5 | 12.7 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 8.7 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Modena vs Venezia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Modena and Venezia expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Modena and 0.88 for Venezia, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Modena vs Venezia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Modena's recent record stands at 18W 20D 16L from 54 games, a 1.37 PPG return, with D-D-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Modena is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Venezia, meanwhile, have gone 13W 19D 22L across 54 games — 1.07 PPG, with W-W-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Venezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.37 PPG for Modena against 1.07 for Venezia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Modena have managed 11W 10D 6L from 27 games — 1.59 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Venezia's away record stands at 1W 14D 12L across 27 trips, a 0.63 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.07 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Venezia's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Modena come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Modena are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Venezia are on 1.11 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Modena
Blended
Venezia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Modena and Venezia in coming into this match?
Modena have gone 18W 20D 16L in their last 54 games (1.37 PPG), while Venezia have gone 13W 19D 22L in their last 54 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Modena at home or Venezia away?
Modena's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Modena at home: 1.59 PPG; Venezia away: 0.63 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 10 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Venezia won 5-0 on 1 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Modena have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Venezia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Modena
2
Draws
3
Venezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Venezia?
From 6 meetings on record, Modena have won 1, Venezia have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Modena and Venezia last play each other?
They last met on 10 February 2026, when Venezia 0-2 Modena.
Who has won more matches between Modena and Venezia?
Venezia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Venezia see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Modena 63%, Venezia 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Modena) and 48% (Venezia).
On the defensive side: Venezia in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Modena home games / Venezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Modena play Venezia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Modena's games and 59% of Venezia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Modena vs Venezia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Modena's recent games and 48% of Venezia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Modena and Venezia tend to score early?
Modena have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Venezia in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Venezia defy the odds to beat Modena 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Venezia beat Modena 1-2 at Stadio Alberto Braglia, Regular Season - 17, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Modena 1.37 xG and Venezia 0.88 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Venezia outscored their 0.88 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Modena attack 1.02 / defence 0.90 against Venezia attack 0.91 / defence 1.00, drawn from 54/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Modena 47% | Draw 30% | Venezia 23%, with Modena to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Venezia win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Modena 48%, Venezia 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Modena's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Venezia's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Modena 1.37 PPG, Venezia 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Venezia win broke the near-deadlock. Modena (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Venezia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.