Modena 1-0 Ascoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Modena at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Modena vs Ascoli fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ascoli make the trip to Stadio Alberto Braglia to face Modena in Serie B, Regular Season - 2. The match kicks off on Saturday 26 August 2023 at 19:30 UTC.
Form
Modena (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L D L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Modena haven't played a Serie B game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Modena's home record at Stadio Alberto Braglia: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
Ascoli have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Ascoli have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Ascoli have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Modena against 1.10 for Ascoli. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Modena lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Mar 2023, ended 0–1 with Ascoli winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Modena — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games).
Ascoli — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Modena 55% versus Ascoli 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Modena 47% | Ascoli 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Modena 1.48 xG and Ascoli 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Modena attack 1.006 / defence 0.939 | Ascoli attack 0.843 / defence 1.212. League average goals — home 1.213 / away 1.021. Ascoli bring a strong defensive rating of 1.212 — this is suppressing Modena's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 38 Modena games / 39 Ascoli games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Modena 51% | Draw 31% | Ascoli 18%. Fair-value odds: Modena 1.96 | Draw 3.23 | Ascoli 5.56. Modena hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Modena are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Modena if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.29 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: Modena 40% | Ascoli 40% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (38 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Modena vs Ascoli | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Braglia • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Aug 2023, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Modena 51% | Draw 31% | Ascoli 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 45% | xG Modena 1.48 / Ascoli 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Modena attack 1.006 / def 0.939 | Ascoli attack 0.843 / def 1.212 | league avg home 1.213 / away 1.021 • Poisson stance: Modena (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Modena xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Ascoli xG
45%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Modena vs Ascoli kick off?
Modena vs Ascoli kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 26 August 2023 at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What was the final score in Modena vs Ascoli?
Modena 1 - 0 Ascoli.
Where is Modena vs Ascoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What competition is Modena vs Ascoli part of?
Modena vs Ascoli is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Modena vs Ascoli?
Our statistical model gives Modena a 51% chance of winning, Ascoli a 18% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Modena the favourite.
Will both teams score in Modena vs Ascoli?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Modena and Ascoli will score (BTTS).
Will Modena vs Ascoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Ascoli?
Record (2 meetings): Modena 1W | Draws 0 | Ascoli 1W.
What form are Modena and Ascoli in?
Modena (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-L-W. Ascoli (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Modena's attack rating (1.01) and Ascoli's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 1.48 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Ascoli's attack (0.84x) against Modena's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
The sample (38/39 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.4%), 0-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Modena Win
51%
1.98
31%
3.20
18%
5.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Modena xG
Total xG
2.29
0.81
Ascoli xG
1.98
51%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
5.53
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
45%
2.25
23%
4.39
Win to Nil
23%
4.44
4%
24.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 8.2 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.0 | 12.1 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.0 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.5 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Modena vs Ascoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Modena and Ascoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Modena and 0.81 for Ascoli, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Modena vs Ascoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 38 outings, Modena have picked up 1.26 PPG on a 13W 9D 16L record — D-L-D-L-W across the most recent five. Modena haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Ascoli's form line: 11W 11D 16L from 38 games, 1.16 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-L. It's still early in the season for Ascoli, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.26 PPG for Modena against 1.16 for Ascoli. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Modena have posted 1.53 PPG from 19 outings (7W 8D 4L).
On the road, Ascoli have gone 5W 5D 9L from 19 away games — 1.05 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Modena come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Modena are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Ascoli are on 1.00 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Modena
Pre-Season
Ascoli
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Modena and Ascoli in coming into this match?
Modena have gone 13W 9D 16L in their last 38 games (1.26 PPG), while Ascoli have gone 11W 11D 16L in their last 38 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Modena at home or Ascoli away?
Modena's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Modena at home: 1.53 PPG; Ascoli away: 1.05 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Modena have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Ascoli — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Modena
1
Draws
1
Ascoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Ascoli?
From 4 meetings on record, Modena have won 2, Ascoli have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Modena and Ascoli last play each other?
They last met on 20 April 2024, when Ascoli 0-0 Modena.
Who has won more matches between Modena and Ascoli?
Modena have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Ascoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Modena 53%, Ascoli 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 32% for Modena and 32% for Ascoli.
On the defensive side: Modena keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Modena have failed to score in 26% of games; Ascoli in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Modena home games / Ascoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Modena play Ascoli?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Modena's recent matches and 42% of Ascoli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Modena vs Ascoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Modena's recent games and 32% of Ascoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Modena and Ascoli tend to score early?
Modena have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Ascoli in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Modena edge out Ascoli 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Modena beat Ascoli 1-0 at Stadio Alberto Braglia, Regular Season - 2, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Modena 1.48 xG and Ascoli 0.81 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Ascoli landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Modena attack 1.01 / defence 0.94 against Ascoli attack 0.84 / defence 1.21, drawn from 38/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Modena 51% | Draw 31% | Ascoli 18%, with Modena to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Modena 47%, Ascoli 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Modena's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Ascoli's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Modena 1.26 PPG, Ascoli 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Modena win broke the near-deadlock. Modena (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.95 average — tighter than their form line. Ascoli (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.