Mantova 2-5 Venezia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Venezia at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mantova vs Venezia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Venezia make the trip to Stadio Danilo Martelli to face Mantova in Serie B, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Saturday 24 January 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Mantova (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L D D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Mantova, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Mantova have posted 3W 2D 5L at Stadio Danilo Martelli — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Venezia have collected 2.50 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Venezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Venezia's away record: 3W 5D 2L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Venezia are 1.10 PPG clear of Mantova in recent Serie B fixtures (2.50 vs 1.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Mantova register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Venezia in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Mantova lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Nov 2025, ended 0–3 with Venezia winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Mantova goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Venezia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mantova 55% versus Venezia 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mantova 50% | Venezia 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mantova 1.17 xG and Venezia 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mantova attack 0.911 / defence 1.205 | Venezia attack 1.141 / defence 0.991. League average goals — home 1.297 / away 1.041. Data: 58 Mantova games / 20 Venezia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mantova 30% | Draw 27% | Venezia 43%. Fair-value odds: Mantova 3.33 | Draw 3.70 | Venezia 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Venezia are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Venezia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.60 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Mantova 70% | Venezia 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mantova vs Venezia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadio Danilo Martelli • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Jan 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mantova 30% | Draw 27% | Venezia 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Mantova 1.17 / Venezia 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Mantova attack 0.911 / def 1.205 | Venezia attack 1.141 / def 0.991 | league avg home 1.297 / away 1.041 • Poisson stance: Venezia (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Mantova xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Venezia xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mantova vs Venezia kick off?
Mantova vs Venezia kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 24 January 2026 at Stadio Danilo Martelli.
What was the final score in Mantova vs Venezia?
Mantova 2 - 5 Venezia.
Where is Mantova vs Venezia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Danilo Martelli.
What competition is Mantova vs Venezia part of?
Mantova vs Venezia is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Mantova vs Venezia?
Our statistical model gives Mantova a 30% chance of winning, Venezia a 43% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Venezia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mantova vs Venezia?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Mantova and Venezia will score (BTTS).
Will Mantova vs Venezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mantova and Venezia?
Record (1 meetings): Mantova 0W | Draws 0 | Venezia 1W.
What form are Mantova and Venezia in?
Mantova (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-D-D-W. Venezia (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Mantova's attack rating (0.91) and Venezia's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.17 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Venezia's attack (1.14x) against Mantova's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.43.
These ratings are built from 58/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.0%), 0-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Venezia Win
30%
3.28
27%
3.72
43%
2.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Mantova xG
Total xG
2.60
1.43
Venezia xG
3.28
30%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
2.34
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
24%
4.19
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
7%
13.74
13%
7.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 10.6 | 7.6 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.4 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.3 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mantova vs Venezia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Mantova and Venezia expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Mantova and 1.43 for Venezia, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Mantova vs Venezia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Mantova come into this having played 58 games, going 15W 18D 25L for 1.09 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-D-W. The sample for Mantova is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Venezia sit at 1.21 PPG from 58 outings (17W 19D 22L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Venezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.09 PPG for Mantova against 1.21 for Venezia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Mantova's home form reads 11W 9D 9L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.45 PPG return.
Away from home, Venezia have taken 0.79 points per game from 29 outings (3W 14D 12L). That's a step down from their 1.21 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Venezia's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mantova come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Mantova are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Venezia are on 1.19 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 58 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mantova
Blended
Venezia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mantova and Venezia in coming into this match?
Mantova have gone 15W 18D 25L in their last 58 games (1.09 PPG), while Venezia have gone 17W 19D 22L in their last 58 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mantova at home or Venezia away?
Mantova's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mantova at home: 1.45 PPG; Venezia away: 0.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since November 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Mantova
0
Draws
2
Venezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mantova and Venezia?
From 2 meetings on record, Mantova have won 0, Venezia have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Mantova and Venezia last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Mantova 2-5 Venezia.
Who has won more matches between Mantova and Venezia?
Venezia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Mantova see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Venezia see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mantova 52%, Venezia 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Mantova) and 52% (Venezia).
On the defensive side: Mantova keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Mantova have failed to score in 28% of games; Venezia in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mantova home games / Venezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mantova play Venezia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Mantova's games and 62% of Venezia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mantova vs Venezia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Mantova's recent games and 52% of Venezia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Dominant Venezia run riot with a 2-5 hammering of Mantova.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Venezia beat Mantova 2-5 at Stadio Danilo Martelli, Regular Season - 21, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mantova 1.17 xG and Venezia 1.43 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 2-5 for 7 actual goals. Mantova beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Venezia outscored their 1.43 projection by 3.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mantova attack 0.91 / defence 1.21 against Venezia attack 1.14 / defence 0.99, drawn from 58/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mantova 30% | Draw 27% | Venezia 43%, with Venezia to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mantova 50%, Venezia 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mantova's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Venezia's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mantova 1.09 PPG, Venezia 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Venezia win broke the near-deadlock. Mantova (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.24 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Venezia (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.