Mantova 0-2 Cremonese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Mantova at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mantova vs Cremonese encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees Cremonese travel to Stadio Danilo Martelli to take on Mantova. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 27 October 2026, 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Mantova — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Mantova, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Danilo Martelli, Mantova have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cremonese stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Serie B matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Cremonese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Cremonese have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, Mantova have the edge — a 1.10 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 0.90) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Mantova have won 1, Cremonese 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 25 Apr 2025, ended 2–4 with Cremonese winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Mantova in-play tendencies (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Cremonese in-play tendencies (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mantova 52% versus Cremonese 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mantova 52% | Cremonese 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mantova 1.75 xG and Cremonese 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mantova attack 1.096 / defence 0.979 | Cremonese attack 0.644 / defence 1.248. League average goals — home 1.281 / away 1.333. Cremonese bring a strong defensive rating of 1.248 — this is suppressing Mantova's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 46 Mantova games / 8 Cremonese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mantova 58% | Draw 25% | Cremonese 17%. Fair-value odds: Mantova 1.72 | Draw 4.00 | Cremonese 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Mantova (58%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Mantova at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.59 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: Mantova 40% | Cremonese 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mantova vs Cremonese | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadio Danilo Martelli • Kick-off: Tuesday 27 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mantova 58% | Draw 25% | Cremonese 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 48% | xG Mantova 1.75 / Cremonese 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Mantova attack 1.096 / def 0.979 | Cremonese attack 0.644 / def 1.248 | league avg home 1.281 / away 1.333 • Poisson stance: Mantova (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Mantova xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Cremonese xG
48%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mantova vs Cremonese kick off?
Mantova vs Cremonese kicked off at 19:00 on Tuesday 27 October 2026 at Stadio Danilo Martelli.
What was the final score in Mantova vs Cremonese?
Mantova 0 - 2 Cremonese.
Where is Mantova vs Cremonese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Danilo Martelli.
What competition is Mantova vs Cremonese part of?
Mantova vs Cremonese is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Mantova vs Cremonese?
Our statistical model gives Mantova a 58% chance of winning, Cremonese a 17% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Mantova the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mantova vs Cremonese?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Mantova and Cremonese will score (BTTS).
Will Mantova vs Cremonese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mantova and Cremonese?
Record (2 meetings): Mantova 1W | Draws 0 | Cremonese 1W.
What form are Mantova and Cremonese in?
Mantova (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-W-L-W. Cremonese (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Mantova's attack rating (1.10) and Cremonese's defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 1.75 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cremonese's attack versus Mantova's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.7%), 2-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mantova Win
58%
1.71
25%
4.07
17%
5.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.5%
Home win
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Mantova xG
Total xG
2.59
0.84
Cremonese xG
1.71
58%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
5.87
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
43%
2.32
17%
5.77
Win to Nil
25%
3.97
3%
33.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 6.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.1 | 11.0 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 9.7 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.7 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mantova vs Cremonese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Mantova and Cremonese expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Mantova and 0.84 for Cremonese, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Mantova vs Cremonese?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 46 outings, Mantova have picked up 1.37 PPG on a 18W 9D 19L record — W-D-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Mantova is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cremonese's form line: 9W 13D 24L from 46 games, 0.87 PPG, last five D-D-D-L-L. The sample for Cremonese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Mantova are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cremonese.
Venue Form
On home soil, Mantova have posted 1.61 PPG from 23 outings (11W 4D 8L).
On the road, Cremonese have gone 5W 5D 13L from 23 away games — 0.87 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mantova come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Mantova are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Cremonese are on 0.83 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mantova
Blended
Cremonese
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mantova and Cremonese in coming into this match?
Mantova have gone 18W 9D 19L in their last 46 games (1.37 PPG), while Cremonese have gone 9W 13D 24L in their last 46 (0.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mantova at home or Cremonese away?
Mantova's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mantova at home: 1.61 PPG; Cremonese away: 0.87 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. The two were last together as recently as 27 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Cremonese have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Mantova's record when hosting Cremonese specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Mantova
0
Draws
2
Cremonese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mantova and Cremonese?
From 3 meetings on record, Mantova have won 1, Cremonese have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Mantova and Cremonese last play each other?
They last met on 27 October 2026, when Mantova 0-2 Cremonese.
Who has won more matches between Mantova and Cremonese?
Cremonese have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Mantova are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mantova 61%, Cremonese 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Mantova) and 44% (Cremonese).
On the defensive side: Cremonese in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mantova home games / Cremonese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mantova play Cremonese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Mantova's recent matches and 35% of Cremonese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mantova vs Cremonese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Mantova's recent games and 44% of Cremonese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mantova and Cremonese tend to score early?
Mantova have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Cremonese in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cremonese cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Mantova.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cremonese beat Mantova 0-2 at Stadio Danilo Martelli, Regular Season - 9, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mantova 1.75 xG and Cremonese 0.84 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Mantova fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Cremonese outscored their 0.84 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mantova attack 1.10 / defence 0.98 against Cremonese attack 0.64 / defence 1.25, drawn from 46/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mantova 58% | Draw 25% | Cremonese 17%, with Mantova to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a Cremonese win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mantova 52%, Cremonese 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mantova's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cremonese's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Mantova arrived the stronger side — 1.37 PPG against 0.87. Form was overturned, with Cremonese winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Mantova (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.52 scoring average — below par going forward. Cremonese (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.74 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.