Mantova 1-1 Brescia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mantova at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Mantova face Brescia.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Brescia travel to Stadio Danilo Martelli to take on Mantova in Serie B (matchday 8). The game is scheduled for Sunday 6 October 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 7 matches, Mantova stand at 3W 1D 3L — 1.43 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.29 goals per game and conceding 1.57 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings (29%).
At home, Mantova have gone 3W 0D 0L in their last 3 home games (3.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from their last 3 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.43 — Mantova are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Brescia — last 10 games: 5W 0D 5L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
On the road, Brescia have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Mantova 1.43 PPG, Brescia 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
Mantova trading profile (last 7 games, 3 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%.
Brescia trading profile (last 7 games, 3 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mantova 43% versus Brescia 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mantova 43% | Brescia 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mantova 1.32 xG and Brescia 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mantova attack 0.957 / defence 0.992 | Brescia attack 0.918 / defence 1.062. League average goals — home 1.295 / away 1.114. Data: built from Mantova's last 7 games and Brescia's last 45.
Result probabilities: Mantova 42% | Draw 30% | Brescia 28%. Fair-value odds: Mantova 2.36 | Draw 3.31 | Brescia 3.64. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Mantova as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mantova offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.33 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Mantova 33% (last 3 home games) | Brescia 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mantova vs Brescia | Competition: Serie B, matchday 8 | Venue: Stadio Danilo Martelli • Kick-off: Sunday 6 October 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mantova 42% | Draw 30% | Brescia 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Mantova 1.32 / Brescia 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Mantova attack 0.957 / def 0.992 | Brescia attack 0.918 / def 1.062 | league avg home 1.295 / away 1.114 • Poisson stance: Mantova (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Mantova xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Brescia xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Mantova vs Brescia FAQs
What time does Mantova vs Brescia kick off?
Mantova vs Brescia kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 6 October 2024 at Stadio Danilo Martelli.
What was the final score in Mantova vs Brescia?
Mantova 1 - 1 Brescia.
Where is Mantova vs Brescia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Danilo Martelli.
What competition is Mantova vs Brescia part of?
Mantova vs Brescia is a Serie B fixture (matchday 8) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Mantova vs Brescia?
Our statistical model gives Mantova a 42% chance of winning, Brescia a 28% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Mantova the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mantova vs Brescia?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Mantova and Brescia will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Mantova vs Brescia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Mantova's attack rating (0.96) and Brescia's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.32 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Brescia's attack versus Mantova's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Mantova's last 7 games and Brescia's last 45 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.4%), 1-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mantova Win
42%
2.36
30%
3.31
28%
3.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Mantova xG
Total xG
2.33
1.01
Brescia xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
3.64
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
27%
3.73
Win to Nil
15%
6.52
7%
13.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 13.0 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.5 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Mantova vs Brescia Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Mantova vs Brescia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Mantova and Brescia expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Mantova and 1.01 for Brescia, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Mantova vs Brescia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Mantova come into this having played 7 games, going 3W 1D 3L for 1.43 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-L.
On the other side, Brescia sit at 1.71 PPG from 7 outings (4W 0D 3L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mantova on 1.43 PPG, Brescia on 1.71. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Mantova's home form reads 3W 0D 0L across their last 3 home games, a 3.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.43 PPG overall — Mantova are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Brescia have taken 1.00 points per game from their last 3 away games (1W 0D 2L). That's a step down from their 1.71 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Brescia's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mantova come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Mantova are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Brescia are on 1.57 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Last 7 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mantova
Early Season
Brescia
Early Season
Mantova (Home) vs Brescia (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Mantova
Early Season
Brescia
Early Season
❓ Mantova vs Brescia Form FAQs
What form are Mantova and Brescia in coming into this match?
Mantova have gone 3W 1D 3L in their last 7 games (1.43 PPG), while Brescia have gone 4W 0D 3L in their last 7 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mantova at home or Brescia away?
Mantova's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mantova at home: 3.00 PPG; Brescia away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 2 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2024. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent in our data was on 5 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Mantova
1
Draws
0
Brescia
Recent Meetings
❓ Mantova vs Brescia H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Mantova and Brescia?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Mantova have won 1, Brescia have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Mantova and Brescia last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 April 2025: Brescia 1-2 Mantova.
Who has won more matches between Mantova and Brescia?
Mantova have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Mantova see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Brescia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mantova 33%, Brescia 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Mantova) and 67% (Brescia).
On the defensive side: Mantova keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Brescia in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mantova home games / Brescia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Mantova vs Brescia Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Mantova and Brescia matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Mantova's recent matches and 67% of Brescia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Mantova and Brescia matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Mantova's recent games and 67% of Brescia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mantova and Brescia matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 33% of Mantova's recent matches and 100% of Brescia's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mantova and Brescia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mantova and Brescia finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Danilo Martelli, Regular Season - 8, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mantova 1.32 xG and Brescia 1.01 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mantova attack 0.96 / defence 0.99 against Brescia attack 0.92 / defence 1.06, drawn from 7/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mantova 42% | Draw 30% | Brescia 28%, with Mantova to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mantova 43%, Brescia 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mantova's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Brescia's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mantova 1.43 PPG, Brescia 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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