Lecco 3-2 Parma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Parma at 75% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lecco vs Parma encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Parma make the trip to Stadio Rigamonti Ceppi to face Lecco in Serie B, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Sunday 12 November 2023 at 15:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Lecco have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L W W D D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Lecco, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Lecco have posted 0W 1D 4L at Stadio Rigamonti Ceppi — 0.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.20 lags behind their overall 0.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadio Rigamonti Ceppi this season.
Parma's overall Serie B record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Parma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Parma have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Parma are 1.40 PPG clear of Lecco in recent Serie B fixtures (2.30 vs 0.90). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading Data
Lecco goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Parma goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lecco 54% versus Parma 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lecco 54% | Parma 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lecco 0.74 xG and Parma 2.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lecco attack 0.660 / defence 1.421 | Parma attack 1.517 / defence 1.027. League average goals — home 1.099 / away 1.169. Lecco's attack strength of 0.660 is below the league average — the 0.74 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Parma have an above-average attack strength of 1.517 — the away xG of 2.52 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 11 Lecco games / 50 Parma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lecco 8% | Draw 17% | Parma 75%. Fair-value odds: Lecco 12.50 | Draw 5.88 | Parma 1.33. The model has a clear lean to Parma (75%) — a 67pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Parma as the most likely outcome at 75% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.27 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: Lecco 40% | Parma 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lecco vs Parma | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadio Rigamonti Ceppi • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Nov 2023, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lecco 8% | Draw 17% | Parma 75% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 49% | xG Lecco 0.74 / Parma 2.52 • Poisson strength factors: Lecco attack 0.660 / def 1.421 | Parma attack 1.517 / def 1.027 | league avg home 1.099 / away 1.169 • Poisson stance: Parma (75%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.74
Lecco xG
Expected Goals
2.52
Parma xG
49%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lecco vs Parma kick off?
Lecco vs Parma kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 12 November 2023 at Stadio Rigamonti Ceppi.
What was the final score in Lecco vs Parma?
Lecco 3 - 2 Parma.
Where is Lecco vs Parma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Rigamonti Ceppi.
What competition is Lecco vs Parma part of?
Lecco vs Parma is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Lecco vs Parma?
Our statistical model gives Lecco a 8% chance of winning, Parma a 75% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Parma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lecco vs Parma?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Lecco and Parma will score (BTTS).
Will Lecco vs Parma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lecco and Parma?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lecco and Parma in?
Lecco (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-D-D. Parma (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Lecco's attacking strength (0.66x league average) is weighed against Parma's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.74. Flip it around — Parma's attack (1.52x) against Lecco's defence (1.42x) — and the away total comes out at 2.52.
These ratings are built from 11/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-2, at 12.1%. Close behind: 0-3 (10.2%), 1-2 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Parma Win
8%
12.35
17%
5.98
75%
1.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
12.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 3
10.2%
Away win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.74
Lecco xG
Total xG
3.27
2.52
Parma xG
12.35
8%
Home win
5.98
17%
Draw
1.33
75%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
8%
12.44
47%
2.11
Win to Nil
1%
153.59
36%
2.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 9.6 | 12.1 | 10.2 | 6.4 | 3.2 |
| 1 | 2.8 | 7.2 | 9.0 | 7.6 | 4.8 | 2.4 |
| 2 | 1.1 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | – | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lecco vs Parma?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Lecco and Parma expected to score?
The model projects 0.74 expected goals for Lecco and 2.52 for Parma, a combined total of 3.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Lecco vs Parma?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 75%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Lecco's recent record stands at 2W 3D 6L from 11 games, a 0.82 PPG return, with L-W-W-D-D in the last five. The sample for Lecco is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Parma, meanwhile, have gone 8W 2D 1L across 11 games — 2.36 PPG, with W-L-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Parma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Parma by 1.54 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Lecco heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Lecco have managed 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — 0.20 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 0.82 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Parma's away record stands at 4W 0D 1L across 5 trips, a 2.40 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Parma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lecco are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Parma are on 2.09 scored and 0.82 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Parma in 64%.
Defensively: Parma in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lecco
Blended
Parma
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lecco and Parma in coming into this match?
Lecco have gone 2W 3D 6L in their last 11 games (0.82 PPG), while Parma have gone 8W 2D 1L in their last 11 (2.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lecco at home or Parma away?
Parma's away record (2.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lecco at home: 0.20 PPG; Parma away: 2.40 PPG.
Have Lecco or Parma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lecco have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Parma in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since November 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Lecco
0
Draws
1
Parma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lecco and Parma?
From 2 meetings on record, Lecco have won 1, Parma have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Lecco and Parma last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2024, when Parma 4-0 Lecco.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lecco are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lecco 40%, Parma 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 40% for Lecco and 100% for Parma. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lecco have failed to score in 60% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lecco home games / Parma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lecco play Parma?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of Lecco's games and 80% of Parma's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lecco vs Parma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 40% of Lecco's matches and 100% of Parma's.
Do Lecco and Parma tend to score early?
Lecco have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Parma in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Lecco defy the odds to beat Parma 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lecco beat Parma 3-2 at Stadio Rigamonti Ceppi, Regular Season - 13, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lecco 0.74 xG and Parma 2.52 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Lecco beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lecco attack 0.66 / defence 1.42 against Parma attack 1.52 / defence 1.03, drawn from 11/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lecco 8% | Draw 17% | Parma 75%, with Parma to win its most likely call at 75%. Instead the game produced a Lecco win, an outcome the model had rated at just 8% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lecco 54%, Parma 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lecco's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Parma's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Parma arrived the stronger side — 2.36 PPG against 0.82. Form was overturned, with Lecco winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Lecco (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm. Parma (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.