Juve Stabia 1-1 Sampdoria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Juve Stabia at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Juve Stabia vs Sampdoria fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Juve Stabia host Sampdoria at Stadio Romeo Menti in Serie B, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 4 March 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Juve Stabia — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: D W L L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Juve Stabia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Romeo Menti, Juve Stabia have gone 5W 4D 1L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Romeo Menti.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sampdoria stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sampdoria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sampdoria's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Juve Stabia 1.60 PPG, Sampdoria 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Juve Stabia have won 1, Sampdoria 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.3 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 24 Nov 2025, ended 0–1 with Sampdoria winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Juve Stabia in-play and half-time data (66 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Sampdoria in-play and half-time data (66 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juve Stabia 50% versus Sampdoria 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Juve Stabia 48% | Sampdoria 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juve Stabia 1.42 xG and Sampdoria 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juve Stabia attack 1.047 / defence 1.020 | Sampdoria attack 0.827 / defence 1.059. League average goals — home 1.278 / away 1.146. Data: 65 Juve Stabia games / 65 Sampdoria games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Juve Stabia 46% | Draw 29% | Sampdoria 24%. Fair-value odds: Juve Stabia 2.17 | Draw 3.45 | Sampdoria 4.17. Juve Stabia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Juve Stabia at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Juve Stabia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.38 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: Juve Stabia 40% | Sampdoria 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juve Stabia vs Sampdoria | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stadio Romeo Menti • Kick-off: Wednesday 4 Mar 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juve Stabia 46% | Draw 29% | Sampdoria 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Juve Stabia 1.42 / Sampdoria 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Juve Stabia attack 1.047 / def 1.020 | Sampdoria attack 0.827 / def 1.059 | league avg home 1.278 / away 1.146 • Poisson stance: Juve Stabia (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Juve Stabia xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Sampdoria xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juve Stabia vs Sampdoria kick off?
Juve Stabia vs Sampdoria kicked off at 19:00 on Wednesday 4 March 2026 at Stadio Romeo Menti.
What was the final score in Juve Stabia vs Sampdoria?
Juve Stabia 1 - 1 Sampdoria.
Where is Juve Stabia vs Sampdoria being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Romeo Menti.
What competition is Juve Stabia vs Sampdoria part of?
Juve Stabia vs Sampdoria is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Juve Stabia vs Sampdoria?
Our statistical model gives Juve Stabia a 46% chance of winning, Sampdoria a 24% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Juve Stabia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juve Stabia vs Sampdoria?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Juve Stabia and Sampdoria will score (BTTS).
Will Juve Stabia vs Sampdoria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juve Stabia and Sampdoria?
Record (3 meetings): Juve Stabia 1W | Draws 1 | Sampdoria 1W.
What form are Juve Stabia and Sampdoria in?
Juve Stabia (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-L-D. Sampdoria (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Juve Stabia's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Sampdoria's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.42. The same calculation in reverse, Sampdoria's attack versus Juve Stabia's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.4%), 0-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juve Stabia Win
46%
2.16
29%
3.41
24%
4.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
2 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Juve Stabia xG
Total xG
2.38
0.97
Sampdoria xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
4.09
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
38%
2.63
24%
4.12
Win to Nil
18%
5.68
6%
16.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 12.6 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juve Stabia vs Sampdoria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Juve Stabia and Sampdoria expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Juve Stabia and 0.97 for Sampdoria, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Juve Stabia vs Sampdoria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Juve Stabia's recent record stands at 24W 24D 18L from 66 games, a 1.45 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Juve Stabia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sampdoria, meanwhile, have gone 16W 25D 25L across 66 games — 1.11 PPG, with W-D-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Sampdoria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Juve Stabia on 1.45 PPG, Sampdoria on 1.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Juve Stabia have managed 17W 10D 5L from 32 games — 1.91 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.45 PPG overall — Juve Stabia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Sampdoria's away record stands at 3W 14D 15L across 32 trips, a 0.72 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Juve Stabia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Juve Stabia are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Sampdoria are on 1.03 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 66 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juve Stabia
Blended
Sampdoria
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Juve Stabia and Sampdoria in coming into this match?
Juve Stabia have gone 24W 24D 18L in their last 66 games (1.45 PPG), while Sampdoria have gone 16W 25D 25L in their last 66 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juve Stabia at home or Sampdoria away?
Juve Stabia's home record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juve Stabia at home: 1.91 PPG; Sampdoria away: 0.72 PPG.
Have Juve Stabia or Sampdoria been keeping clean sheets recently?
Juve Stabia have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Sampdoria in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Juve Stabia's record when hosting Sampdoria specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Juve Stabia
2
Draws
1
Sampdoria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Juve Stabia and Sampdoria?
From 5 meetings on record, Juve Stabia have won 2, Sampdoria have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Juve Stabia and Sampdoria last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Sampdoria 1-2 Juve Stabia.
Who has won more matches between Juve Stabia and Sampdoria?
Juve Stabia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Juve Stabia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Sampdoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Juve Stabia 44%, Sampdoria 72% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Juve Stabia) and 53% (Sampdoria).
On the defensive side: Juve Stabia keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Sampdoria in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juve Stabia home games / Sampdoria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Juve Stabia play Sampdoria?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of Juve Stabia's games and 72% of Sampdoria's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Juve Stabia vs Sampdoria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Juve Stabia's recent games and 53% of Sampdoria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Juve Stabia and Sampdoria tend to score early?
Juve Stabia have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Sampdoria in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Juve Stabia and Sampdoria share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Juve Stabia and Sampdoria finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Romeo Menti, Regular Season - 28, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juve Stabia 1.42 xG and Sampdoria 0.97 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juve Stabia attack 1.05 / defence 1.02 against Sampdoria attack 0.83 / defence 1.06, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Juve Stabia 46% | Draw 29% | Sampdoria 24%, with Juve Stabia to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juve Stabia 48%, Sampdoria 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Juve Stabia's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Sampdoria's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Juve Stabia 1.45 PPG, Sampdoria 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.