Juve Stabia vs Cremonese – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Juve Stabia at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Juve Stabia vs Cremonese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 22 as Juve Stabia welcome Cremonese to Stadio Romeo Menti. Kick-off is set for Saturday 23 January 2027 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Juve Stabia stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D D D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Juve Stabia have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Juve Stabia at Stadio Romeo Menti this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Cremonese — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Cremonese have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Cremonese have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Juve Stabia 1.30 PPG, Cremonese 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Juve Stabia, 2 for Cremonese and 1 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 May 2025, ended 0–3 with Cremonese winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Juve Stabia trading profile (45 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Cremonese trading profile (45 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juve Stabia 58% versus Cremonese 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Juve Stabia 47% | Cremonese 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juve Stabia 1.40 xG and Cremonese 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juve Stabia attack 0.866 / defence 1.084 | Cremonese attack 0.660 / defence 1.202. League average goals — home 1.343 / away 1.271. Cremonese bring a strong defensive rating of 1.202 — this is suppressing Juve Stabia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 Juve Stabia games / 7 Cremonese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Juve Stabia 47% | Draw 30% | Cremonese 23%. Fair-value odds: Juve Stabia 2.13 | Draw 3.33 | Cremonese 4.35. Juve Stabia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Juve Stabia as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Juve Stabia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.31 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Juve Stabia 60% | Cremonese 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juve Stabia vs Cremonese | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadio Romeo Menti • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Jan 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juve Stabia 47% | Draw 30% | Cremonese 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 46% | xG Juve Stabia 1.40 / Cremonese 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Juve Stabia attack 0.866 / def 1.084 | Cremonese attack 0.660 / def 1.202 | league avg home 1.343 / away 1.271 • Poisson stance: Juve Stabia (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Juve Stabia xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Cremonese xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juve Stabia vs Cremonese kick off?
Juve Stabia vs Cremonese is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 23 January 2027 at Stadio Romeo Menti.
Where is Juve Stabia vs Cremonese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Romeo Menti.
What competition is Juve Stabia vs Cremonese part of?
Juve Stabia vs Cremonese is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Juve Stabia vs Cremonese?
Our statistical model gives Juve Stabia a 47% chance of winning, Cremonese a 23% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Juve Stabia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juve Stabia vs Cremonese?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Juve Stabia and Cremonese will score (BTTS).
Will Juve Stabia vs Cremonese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juve Stabia and Cremonese?
Record (4 meetings): Juve Stabia 1W | Draws 1 | Cremonese 2W.
What form are Juve Stabia and Cremonese in?
Juve Stabia (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-D-D-W. Cremonese (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Juve Stabia's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Cremonese's defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.40. The same calculation in reverse, Cremonese's attack versus Juve Stabia's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.3%), 0-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juve Stabia Win
47%
2.12
30%
3.37
23%
4.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Juve Stabia xG
Total xG
2.31
0.91
Cremonese xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
4.30
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
40%
2.48
25%
4.05
Win to Nil
19%
5.26
6%
17.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 9.0 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 12.7 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juve Stabia vs Cremonese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Juve Stabia and Cremonese expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Juve Stabia and 0.91 for Cremonese, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Juve Stabia vs Cremonese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 45 outings, Juve Stabia have picked up 1.36 PPG on a 14W 19D 12L record — L-D-D-D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Juve Stabia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Cremonese's form line: 9W 13D 23L from 45 games, 0.89 PPG, last five W-D-D-D-L. It's still early in the season for Cremonese, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Juve Stabia are the form team by 0.47 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cremonese.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Juve Stabia have posted 1.71 PPG from 21 outings (9W 9D 3L).
On the road, Cremonese have gone 4W 4D 13L from 21 away games — 0.76 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Juve Stabia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Juve Stabia are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Cremonese are on 0.84 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juve Stabia
Early Season
Cremonese
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Juve Stabia and Cremonese in coming into this match?
Juve Stabia have gone 14W 19D 12L in their last 45 games (1.36 PPG), while Cremonese have gone 9W 13D 23L in their last 45 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juve Stabia at home or Cremonese away?
Juve Stabia's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juve Stabia at home: 1.71 PPG; Cremonese away: 0.76 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Juve Stabia and Cremonese runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 May 2025, when Cremonese won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Juve Stabia's record when hosting Cremonese specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Juve Stabia
1
Draws
2
Cremonese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Juve Stabia and Cremonese?
From 4 meetings on record, Juve Stabia have won 1, Cremonese have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Juve Stabia and Cremonese last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2025, when Cremonese 3-0 Juve Stabia.
Who has won more matches between Juve Stabia and Cremonese?
Cremonese have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Juve Stabia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Juve Stabia 52%, Cremonese 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Juve Stabia) and 43% (Cremonese).
On the defensive side: Juve Stabia keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Cremonese in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juve Stabia home games / Cremonese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Juve Stabia play Cremonese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Juve Stabia's recent matches and 33% of Cremonese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Juve Stabia vs Cremonese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Juve Stabia's recent games and 43% of Cremonese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Juve Stabia and Cremonese tend to score early?
Juve Stabia have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Cremonese in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.