Juve Stabia vs Cremonese – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Juve Stabia at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Juve Stabia vs Cremonese encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 22 as Juve Stabia welcome Cremonese to Stadio Romeo Menti. Kick-off is set for Saturday 23 January 2027 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Juve Stabia stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Juve Stabia have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Juve Stabia at Stadio Romeo Menti this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Cremonese — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Cremonese have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Cremonese have gone 2W 0D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Juve Stabia are in the better shape of the two on current Serie B data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Juve Stabia, 2 for Cremonese and 1 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 May 2025, ended 0–3 with Cremonese winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Juve Stabia trading profile (40 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
Cremonese trading profile (40 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 28% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juve Stabia 58% versus Cremonese 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Juve Stabia 48% | Cremonese 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juve Stabia 1.47 xG and Cremonese 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juve Stabia attack 1.010 / defence 0.949 | Cremonese attack 0.717 / defence 1.076. League average goals — home 1.351 / away 1.180. Data: 40 Juve Stabia games / 2 Cremonese games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Juve Stabia 52% | Draw 29% | Cremonese 19%. Fair-value odds: Juve Stabia 1.92 | Draw 3.45 | Cremonese 5.26. Juve Stabia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Juve Stabia as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Juve Stabia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.27 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Juve Stabia 70% | Cremonese 20% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juve Stabia vs Cremonese | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadio Romeo Menti • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Jan 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juve Stabia 52% | Draw 29% | Cremonese 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 44% | xG Juve Stabia 1.47 / Cremonese 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Juve Stabia attack 1.010 / def 0.949 | Cremonese attack 0.717 / def 1.076 | league avg home 1.351 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: Juve Stabia (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Juve Stabia xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Cremonese xG
44%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juve Stabia vs Cremonese kick off?
Juve Stabia vs Cremonese is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 23 January 2027 at Stadio Romeo Menti.
Where is Juve Stabia vs Cremonese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Romeo Menti.
What competition is Juve Stabia vs Cremonese part of?
Juve Stabia vs Cremonese is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Juve Stabia vs Cremonese?
Our statistical model gives Juve Stabia a 52% chance of winning, Cremonese a 19% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Juve Stabia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juve Stabia vs Cremonese?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Juve Stabia and Cremonese will score (BTTS).
Will Juve Stabia vs Cremonese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juve Stabia and Cremonese?
Record (4 meetings): Juve Stabia 1W | Draws 1 | Cremonese 2W.
What form are Juve Stabia and Cremonese in?
Juve Stabia (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-L-W. Cremonese (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Juve Stabia's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Cremonese's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.47. The same calculation in reverse, Cremonese's attack versus Juve Stabia's defence, projects 0.80 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (40/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.6%), 0-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juve Stabia Win
52%
1.93
29%
3.48
19%
5.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Juve Stabia xG
Total xG
2.27
0.80
Cremonese xG
1.93
52%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
5.15
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
45%
2.23
23%
4.34
Win to Nil
23%
4.31
4%
22.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 8.3 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.1 | 12.2 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.1 | 8.9 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.4 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juve Stabia vs Cremonese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Juve Stabia and Cremonese expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Juve Stabia and 0.80 for Cremonese, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Juve Stabia vs Cremonese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 40 outings, Juve Stabia have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 13W 16D 11L record — W-D-L-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Juve Stabia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Cremonese's form line: 8W 10D 22L from 40 games, 0.85 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Cremonese, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Juve Stabia are the form team by 0.53 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cremonese.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Juve Stabia have posted 1.78 PPG from 18 outings (8W 8D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.38 PPG overall — Juve Stabia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Cremonese have gone 4W 2D 12L from 18 away games — 0.78 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Juve Stabia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Juve Stabia are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Cremonese are on 0.80 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 40 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juve Stabia
Early Season
Cremonese
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Juve Stabia and Cremonese in coming into this match?
Juve Stabia have gone 13W 16D 11L in their last 40 games (1.38 PPG), while Cremonese have gone 8W 10D 22L in their last 40 (0.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juve Stabia at home or Cremonese away?
Juve Stabia's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juve Stabia at home: 1.78 PPG; Cremonese away: 0.78 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Juve Stabia and Cremonese runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 May 2025, when Cremonese won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Juve Stabia's record when hosting Cremonese specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Juve Stabia
1
Draws
2
Cremonese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Juve Stabia and Cremonese?
From 4 meetings on record, Juve Stabia have won 1, Cremonese have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Juve Stabia and Cremonese last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2025, when Cremonese 3-0 Juve Stabia.
Who has won more matches between Juve Stabia and Cremonese?
Cremonese have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Juve Stabia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Juve Stabia 56%, Cremonese 28% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Juve Stabia) and 39% (Cremonese).
On the defensive side: Juve Stabia keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Cremonese in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juve Stabia home games / Cremonese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Juve Stabia play Cremonese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Juve Stabia's recent matches and 28% of Cremonese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Juve Stabia vs Cremonese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Juve Stabia's recent games and 39% of Cremonese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Juve Stabia and Cremonese tend to score early?
Juve Stabia have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Cremonese in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.