Juve Stabia 0-1 Cittadella – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Juve Stabia at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Juve Stabia vs Cittadella fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Juve Stabia host Cittadella at Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti in Serie B, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 1 March 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Juve Stabia stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Juve Stabia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Juve Stabia at Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Serie B games this season, Cittadella have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Cittadella, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Cittadella have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Juve Stabia at 1.40 PPG versus Cittadella's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Juve Stabia, 0 for Cittadella and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 Nov 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Juve Stabia in-play tendencies (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Cittadella in-play tendencies (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 23% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juve Stabia 56% versus Cittadella 37%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Juve Stabia 56% | Cittadella 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juve Stabia 1.42 xG and Cittadella 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juve Stabia attack 1.154 / defence 1.018 | Cittadella attack 0.806 / defence 1.016. League average goals — home 1.209 / away 1.101. Data: 27 Juve Stabia games / 65 Cittadella games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Juve Stabia 47% | Draw 31% | Cittadella 22%. Fair-value odds: Juve Stabia 2.13 | Draw 3.23 | Cittadella 4.55. Juve Stabia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Juve Stabia are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Juve Stabia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.32 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: Juve Stabia 60% | Cittadella 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juve Stabia vs Cittadella | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Mar 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juve Stabia 47% | Draw 31% | Cittadella 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Juve Stabia 1.42 / Cittadella 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Juve Stabia attack 1.154 / def 1.018 | Cittadella attack 0.806 / def 1.016 | league avg home 1.209 / away 1.101 • Poisson stance: Juve Stabia (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Juve Stabia xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Cittadella xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juve Stabia vs Cittadella kick off?
Juve Stabia vs Cittadella kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 1 March 2025 at Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti.
What was the final score in Juve Stabia vs Cittadella?
Juve Stabia 0 - 1 Cittadella.
Where is Juve Stabia vs Cittadella being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti.
What competition is Juve Stabia vs Cittadella part of?
Juve Stabia vs Cittadella is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Juve Stabia vs Cittadella?
Our statistical model gives Juve Stabia a 47% chance of winning, Cittadella a 22% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Juve Stabia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juve Stabia vs Cittadella?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Juve Stabia and Cittadella will score (BTTS).
Will Juve Stabia vs Cittadella have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juve Stabia and Cittadella?
Record (1 meetings): Juve Stabia 0W | Draws 1 | Cittadella 0W.
What form are Juve Stabia and Cittadella in?
Juve Stabia (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Cittadella (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Juve Stabia's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against Cittadella's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.42. The same calculation in reverse, Cittadella's attack versus Juve Stabia's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.3%), 0-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juve Stabia Win
47%
2.13
31%
3.22
22%
4.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Juve Stabia xG
Total xG
2.32
0.90
Cittadella xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
4.55
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
40%
2.47
24%
4.12
Win to Nil
19%
5.26
5%
18.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 8.9 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 13.9 | 12.6 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 8.9 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juve Stabia vs Cittadella?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Juve Stabia and Cittadella expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Juve Stabia and 0.90 for Cittadella, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Juve Stabia vs Cittadella?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 27 outings, Juve Stabia have picked up 1.44 PPG on a 10W 9D 8L record — W-L-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Juve Stabia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cittadella's form line: 8W 7D 12L from 27 games, 1.15 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-L. The sample for Cittadella is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Juve Stabia on 1.44 PPG, Cittadella on 1.15. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Juve Stabia have posted 1.85 PPG from 13 outings (7W 3D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.44 PPG overall — Juve Stabia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Cittadella have gone 6W 1D 6L from 13 away games — 1.46 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Juve Stabia are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Cittadella are on 0.78 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Defensively: Cittadella in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 27 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juve Stabia
Blended
Cittadella
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Juve Stabia and Cittadella in coming into this match?
Juve Stabia have gone 10W 9D 8L in their last 27 games (1.44 PPG), while Cittadella have gone 8W 7D 12L in their last 27 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juve Stabia at home or Cittadella away?
Juve Stabia's home record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juve Stabia at home: 1.85 PPG; Cittadella away: 1.46 PPG.
Have Juve Stabia or Cittadella been keeping clean sheets recently?
Juve Stabia have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Cittadella in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Juve Stabia
1
Draws
1
Cittadella
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Juve Stabia and Cittadella?
From 2 meetings on record, Juve Stabia have won 0, Cittadella have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Juve Stabia and Cittadella last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2025, when Juve Stabia 0-1 Cittadella.
Who has won more matches between Juve Stabia and Cittadella?
Cittadella have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Juve Stabia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time.
Cittadella see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Juve Stabia 54%, Cittadella 23% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Juve Stabia) and 38% (Cittadella).
On the defensive side: Juve Stabia keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Cittadella in 46%; Cittadella in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juve Stabia home games / Cittadella away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Juve Stabia play Cittadella?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Juve Stabia's recent matches and 23% of Cittadella's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Juve Stabia vs Cittadella usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Juve Stabia's recent games and 38% of Cittadella's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Juve Stabia and Cittadella tend to score early?
Juve Stabia have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, Cittadella in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cittadella defy the odds to beat Juve Stabia 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cittadella beat Juve Stabia 0-1 at Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti, Regular Season - 28, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juve Stabia 1.42 xG and Cittadella 0.90 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Juve Stabia fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juve Stabia attack 1.15 / defence 1.02 against Cittadella attack 0.81 / defence 1.02, drawn from 27/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Juve Stabia 47% | Draw 31% | Cittadella 22%, with Juve Stabia to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Cittadella win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juve Stabia 56%, Cittadella 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Juve Stabia's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cittadella's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Juve Stabia 1.44 PPG, Cittadella 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cittadella win broke the near-deadlock. Juve Stabia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward. Cittadella (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.54 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.