Juve Stabia vs Carrarese – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson rates Juve Stabia at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Juve Stabia vs Carrarese encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Carrarese make the trip to Stadio Romeo Menti to face Juve Stabia in Serie B, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Saturday 6 February 2027 at 14:00 UTC.

Form

Juve Stabia (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Juve Stabia have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

At home at Stadio Romeo Menti, Juve Stabia have gone 2W 5D 3L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Carrarese's overall Serie B record this term: 0W 3D 7L from 10 games (0.30 PPG). Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Carrarese have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Carrarese away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

Form favours the hosts. Juve Stabia's 1.00 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Carrarese's 0.30 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Juve Stabia lead 1W to 1W over the last 4 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Mar 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Juve Stabia — key trading statistics (43 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).

Carrarese — key trading statistics (43 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juve Stabia 58% versus Carrarese 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Juve Stabia 46% | Carrarese 46%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Juve Stabia 1.14 xG and Carrarese 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juve Stabia attack 0.838 / defence 1.139 | Carrarese attack 0.831 / defence 0.991. League average goals — home 1.372 / away 1.156. Data: 43 Juve Stabia games / 42 Carrarese games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Juve Stabia 37% | Draw 29% | Carrarese 34%. Fair-value odds: Juve Stabia 2.70 | Draw 3.45 | Carrarese 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Juve Stabia as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Juve Stabia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.23 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates are neutral: Juve Stabia 70% | Carrarese 40%.

The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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