Juve Stabia 0-0 Brescia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Brescia at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Juve Stabia vs Brescia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Juve Stabia host Brescia at Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti in Serie B, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 23 November 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Juve Stabia — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L D D D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Juve Stabia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti, Juve Stabia have gone 2W 1D 3L this season (6 games, 1.17 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Brescia stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Brescia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Brescia away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Juve Stabia at 1.00 PPG versus Brescia's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
Juve Stabia in-play tendencies (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 0% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Brescia in-play tendencies (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juve Stabia 46% versus Brescia 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Juve Stabia 54% | Brescia 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juve Stabia 1.11 xG and Brescia 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juve Stabia attack 0.931 / defence 1.353 | Brescia attack 0.875 / defence 1.040. League average goals — home 1.145 / away 1.079. Data: 13 Juve Stabia games / 51 Brescia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Juve Stabia 30% | Draw 33% | Brescia 38%. Fair-value odds: Juve Stabia 3.33 | Draw 3.03 | Brescia 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Brescia at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Brescia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.39 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Juve Stabia 50% | Brescia 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juve Stabia vs Brescia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Nov 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juve Stabia 30% | Draw 33% | Brescia 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 51% | xG Juve Stabia 1.11 / Brescia 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Juve Stabia attack 0.931 / def 1.353 | Brescia attack 0.875 / def 1.040 | league avg home 1.145 / away 1.079 • Poisson stance: Brescia (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Juve Stabia xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Brescia xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juve Stabia vs Brescia kick off?
Juve Stabia vs Brescia kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 23 November 2024 at Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti.
What was the final score in Juve Stabia vs Brescia?
Juve Stabia 0 - 0 Brescia.
Where is Juve Stabia vs Brescia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti.
What competition is Juve Stabia vs Brescia part of?
Juve Stabia vs Brescia is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Juve Stabia vs Brescia?
Our statistical model gives Juve Stabia a 30% chance of winning, Brescia a 38% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Brescia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juve Stabia vs Brescia?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Juve Stabia and Brescia will score (BTTS).
Will Juve Stabia vs Brescia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juve Stabia and Brescia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Juve Stabia and Brescia in?
Juve Stabia (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-D-D-L. Brescia (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-W-L.
What do the betting odds say about Juve Stabia vs Brescia?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Juve Stabia's attack rating (0.93) and Brescia's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.11 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Brescia's attack versus Juve Stabia's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 0-1 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Brescia Win
30%
3.39
33%
3.06
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Juve Stabia xG
Total xG
2.39
1.28
Brescia xG
3.39
30%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
28%
3.59
33%
3.03
Win to Nil
8%
12.14
12%
8.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 11.7 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 13.0 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.2 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juve Stabia vs Brescia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Juve Stabia and Brescia expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Juve Stabia and 1.28 for Brescia, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Juve Stabia vs Brescia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Juve Stabia's recent record stands at 4W 5D 4L from 13 games, a 1.31 PPG return, with L-D-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for Juve Stabia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Brescia, meanwhile, have gone 5W 2D 6L across 13 games — 1.31 PPG, with L-L-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for Brescia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Juve Stabia on 1.31 PPG, Brescia on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Juve Stabia have managed 2W 1D 3L from 6 games — 1.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Brescia's away record stands at 2W 1D 3L across 6 trips, a 1.17 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Juve Stabia are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Brescia are on 1.38 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Defensively: Juve Stabia have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juve Stabia
Blended
Brescia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Juve Stabia and Brescia in coming into this match?
Juve Stabia have gone 4W 5D 4L in their last 13 games (1.31 PPG), while Brescia have gone 5W 2D 6L in their last 13 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juve Stabia at home or Brescia away?
Juve Stabia's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juve Stabia at home: 1.17 PPG; Brescia away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Juve Stabia or Brescia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Juve Stabia have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Brescia in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Juve Stabia
2
Draws
0
Brescia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Juve Stabia and Brescia?
From 2 meetings on record, Juve Stabia have won 0, Brescia have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Juve Stabia and Brescia last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2025, when Brescia 0-0 Juve Stabia.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Juve Stabia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Brescia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Juve Stabia 50%, Brescia 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Juve Stabia) and 33% (Brescia).
On the defensive side: Juve Stabia keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Brescia in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juve Stabia home games / Brescia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Juve Stabia play Brescia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Juve Stabia's recent matches and 50% of Brescia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Juve Stabia vs Brescia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Juve Stabia's recent games and 33% of Brescia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Juve Stabia and Brescia tend to score early?
Juve Stabia have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Brescia in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Juve Stabia's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Juve Stabia and Brescia finished level at 0-0 at Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti, Regular Season - 14, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juve Stabia 1.11 xG and Brescia 1.28 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Juve Stabia fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Brescia landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juve Stabia attack 0.93 / defence 1.35 against Brescia attack 0.88 / defence 1.04, drawn from 13/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Juve Stabia 30% | Draw 33% | Brescia 38%, with Brescia to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juve Stabia 54%, Brescia 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Juve Stabia's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Brescia's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Juve Stabia 1.31 PPG, Brescia 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Juve Stabia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line. Brescia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.