Genoa 2-1 Ascoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Genoa at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Genoa vs Ascoli encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Genoa and Ascoli meet at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris in Serie B, Regular Season - 36. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 6 May 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Genoa have collected 2.40 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 7W 3D 0L. Last five: W D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.20 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.20 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 9 clean sheets from 10 games (90%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
At home at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Genoa have gone 9W 1D 0L this season (10 games, 2.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game. 10 clean sheets from 10 home games (100%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
Ascoli's overall Serie B record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Ascoli have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.00 in Genoa's favour (2.40 vs 1.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Genoa 0W, Ascoli 0W, 1D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 0.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 11 Dec 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Genoa half-time and goal-timing data (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 41% of games.
Ascoli half-time and goal-timing data (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genoa 37% versus Ascoli 49%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Genoa 38% | Ascoli 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genoa 1.42 xG and Ascoli 0.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genoa attack 1.107 / defence 0.636 | Ascoli attack 0.927 / defence 1.126. League average goals — home 1.142 / away 1.010. Genoa's defence rating of 0.636 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 35 Genoa games / 73 Ascoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Genoa 56% | Draw 30% | Ascoli 14%. Fair-value odds: Genoa 1.79 | Draw 3.33 | Ascoli 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Genoa (56%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Genoa as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 30% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.02 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 36% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Genoa 0% | Ascoli 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genoa vs Ascoli | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Saturday 6 May 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genoa 56% | Draw 30% | Ascoli 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 36% | xG Genoa 1.42 / Ascoli 0.59 • Poisson strength factors: Genoa attack 1.107 / def 0.636 | Ascoli attack 0.927 / def 1.126 | league avg home 1.142 / away 1.010 • Poisson stance: Genoa (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Genoa xG
Expected Goals
0.59
Ascoli xG
36%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Genoa vs Ascoli kick off?
Genoa vs Ascoli kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 6 May 2023 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Genoa vs Ascoli?
Genoa 2 - 1 Ascoli.
Where is Genoa vs Ascoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Genoa vs Ascoli part of?
Genoa vs Ascoli is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Genoa vs Ascoli?
Our statistical model gives Genoa a 56% chance of winning, Ascoli a 14% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Genoa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genoa vs Ascoli?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Genoa and Ascoli will score (BTTS).
Will Genoa vs Ascoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Ascoli?
Record (1 meetings): Genoa 0W | Draws 1 | Ascoli 0W.
What form are Genoa and Ascoli in?
Genoa (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.20 | L5 W-D-W-W-D. Ascoli (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Genoa's attack rating (1.11) and Ascoli's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.42 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Ascoli's attack (0.93x) against Genoa's defence (0.64x) — and the away total comes out at 0.59.
These ratings are built from 35/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.8%), 2-0 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Genoa Win
56%
1.79
30%
3.31
14%
7.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.5%
Home win
0 – 0
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Genoa xG
Total xG
2.02
0.59
Ascoli xG
1.79
56%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
7.14
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.81
64%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
55%
1.81
24%
4.15
Win to Nil
31%
3.25
3%
29.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.3 | 7.9 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.9 | 11.3 | 3.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.5 | 8.0 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.4 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Genoa vs Ascoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.5%.
How many goals are Genoa and Ascoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Genoa and 0.59 for Ascoli, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Genoa vs Ascoli?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Genoa's recent record stands at 23W 27D 23L from 73 games, a 1.32 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-D in the last five.
Ascoli, meanwhile, have gone 30W 18D 25L across 73 games — 1.48 PPG, with W-L-W-D-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.32 PPG for Genoa against 1.48 for Ascoli. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Genoa have managed 13W 14D 9L from 36 games — 1.47 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ascoli's away record stands at 17W 7D 12L across 36 trips, a 1.61 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Genoa are averaging 0.99 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Ascoli are on 1.22 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Defensively: Genoa have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 73 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genoa
Current Season
Ascoli
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Genoa and Ascoli in coming into this match?
Genoa have gone 23W 27D 23L in their last 73 games (1.32 PPG), while Ascoli have gone 30W 18D 25L in their last 73 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genoa at home or Ascoli away?
Ascoli's away record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genoa at home: 1.47 PPG; Ascoli away: 1.61 PPG.
Have Genoa or Ascoli been keeping clean sheets recently?
Genoa have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Ascoli in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since December 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Genoa
1
Draws
0
Ascoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Ascoli?
From 2 meetings on record, Genoa have won 1, Ascoli have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Genoa and Ascoli last play each other?
They last met on 6 May 2023, when Genoa 2-1 Ascoli.
Who has won more matches between Genoa and Ascoli?
Genoa have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Genoa see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Ascoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genoa 31%, Ascoli 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 31% for Genoa and 39% for Ascoli.
On the defensive side: Genoa keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Genoa have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genoa home games / Ascoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Genoa play Ascoli?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 31% of Genoa's recent matches and 50% of Ascoli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Genoa vs Ascoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Genoa's recent games and 39% of Ascoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Genoa and Ascoli tend to score early?
Genoa have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Ascoli in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Genoa edge out Ascoli 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Genoa beat Ascoli 2-1 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 36, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genoa 1.42 xG and Ascoli 0.59 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genoa attack 1.11 / defence 0.64 against Ascoli attack 0.93 / defence 1.13, drawn from 35/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genoa 56% | Draw 30% | Ascoli 14%, with Genoa to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genoa 38%, Ascoli 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genoa's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Ascoli's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Genoa 1.32 PPG, Ascoli 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Genoa win broke the near-deadlock. Genoa (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.