Frosinone 3-4 Parma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Frosinone at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Frosinone vs Parma encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Parma travel to Stadio Benito Stirpe to take on Frosinone. The game is scheduled for Friday 24 February 2023, 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Frosinone — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 2.30 points per game. Last five: W W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.40 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Frosinone, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Frosinone's form when playing at home: 8W 2D 0L across 10 games at Stadio Benito Stirpe this term (2.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.30 conceded per game. 8 clean sheets from 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Benito Stirpe. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Parma stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Parma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Parma's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
On current form, Frosinone have the edge — a 1.20 PPG advantage (2.30 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Frosinone have won 1, Parma 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2022, ended 1–2 with Parma winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Frosinone in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Parma in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Frosinone 44% versus Parma 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Frosinone 49% | Parma 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Frosinone 1.69 xG and Parma 0.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Frosinone attack 1.272 / defence 0.668 | Parma attack 0.912 / defence 1.132. League average goals — home 1.175 / away 1.001. Frosinone carry an above-average attack strength of 1.272 — their λ of 1.69 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Frosinone's defence rating of 0.668 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 63 Frosinone games / 63 Parma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Frosinone 63% | Draw 25% | Parma 12%. Fair-value odds: Frosinone 1.59 | Draw 4.00 | Parma 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Frosinone (63%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Frosinone at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.30 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. Form rates corroborate: Frosinone 20% | Parma 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Frosinone vs Parma | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stadio Benito Stirpe • Kick-off: Friday 24 Feb 2023, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Frosinone 63% | Draw 25% | Parma 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 38% | xG Frosinone 1.69 / Parma 0.61 • Poisson strength factors: Frosinone attack 1.272 / def 0.668 | Parma attack 0.912 / def 1.132 | league avg home 1.175 / away 1.001 • Poisson stance: Frosinone (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Frosinone xG
Expected Goals
0.61
Parma xG
38%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Frosinone vs Parma kick off?
Frosinone vs Parma kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 24 February 2023 at Stadio Benito Stirpe.
What was the final score in Frosinone vs Parma?
Frosinone 3 - 4 Parma.
Where is Frosinone vs Parma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Benito Stirpe.
What competition is Frosinone vs Parma part of?
Frosinone vs Parma is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Frosinone vs Parma?
Our statistical model gives Frosinone a 63% chance of winning, Parma a 12% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Frosinone the favourite.
Will both teams score in Frosinone vs Parma?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Frosinone and Parma will score (BTTS).
Will Frosinone vs Parma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Frosinone and Parma?
Record (3 meetings): Frosinone 1W | Draws 1 | Parma 1W.
What form are Frosinone and Parma in?
Frosinone (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Parma (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Frosinone's attack rating (1.27) and Parma's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.69 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Parma's attack versus Frosinone's defence, projects 0.61 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.6%. Close behind: 2-0 (14.3%), 1-1 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Frosinone Win
63%
1.59
25%
4.06
12%
8.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.3%
Home win
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Frosinone xG
Total xG
2.30
0.61
Parma xG
1.59
63%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
8.12
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.64
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
54%
1.84
18%
5.43
Win to Nil
34%
2.92
2%
44.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.9 | 10.3 | 3.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.3 | 8.7 | 2.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.1 | 4.9 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Frosinone vs Parma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.6%.
How many goals are Frosinone and Parma expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Frosinone and 0.61 for Parma, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Frosinone vs Parma?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Frosinone come into this having played 63 games, going 32W 17D 14L for 1.79 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-D. The sample for Frosinone is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Parma sit at 1.32 PPG from 63 outings (20W 23D 20L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for Parma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Frosinone carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.47 PPG clear of Parma — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Frosinone's home form reads 20W 8D 3L across 31 games on their own ground, a 2.19 PPG return.
Away from home, Parma have taken 1.19 points per game from 31 outings (8W 13D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Frosinone come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Frosinone are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Parma are on 1.24 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Defensively: Frosinone have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Frosinone
Blended
Parma
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Frosinone and Parma in coming into this match?
Frosinone have gone 32W 17D 14L in their last 63 games (1.79 PPG), while Parma have gone 20W 23D 20L in their last 63 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Frosinone at home or Parma away?
Frosinone's home record (2.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Frosinone at home: 2.19 PPG; Parma away: 1.19 PPG.
Have Frosinone or Parma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Frosinone have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Parma in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Parma have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Frosinone's record when hosting Parma specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Frosinone
1
Draws
2
Parma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Frosinone and Parma?
From 4 meetings on record, Frosinone have won 1, Parma have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Frosinone and Parma last play each other?
They last met on 24 February 2023, when Frosinone 3-4 Parma.
Who has won more matches between Frosinone and Parma?
Parma have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Frosinone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Frosinone 39%, Parma 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Frosinone) and 45% (Parma).
On the defensive side: Frosinone keep a clean sheet in 58% of their matches; Parma in 32%; Parma in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Frosinone home games / Parma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Frosinone play Parma?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Frosinone's recent matches and 48% of Parma's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Frosinone vs Parma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Frosinone's recent games and 45% of Parma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Frosinone and Parma tend to score early?
Frosinone have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Parma in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Parma defy the odds to beat Frosinone 3-4.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Parma beat Frosinone 3-4 at Stadio Benito Stirpe, Regular Season - 26, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Frosinone 1.69 xG and Parma 0.61 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. Frosinone beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Parma outscored their 0.61 projection by 3.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Frosinone attack 1.27 / defence 0.67 against Parma attack 0.91 / defence 1.13, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Frosinone 63% | Draw 25% | Parma 12%, with Frosinone to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a Parma win, an outcome the model had rated at just 12% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Frosinone 49%, Parma 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Frosinone's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Parma's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Frosinone arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.32. Form was overturned, with Parma winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Frosinone (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.77 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 0.61 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Parma (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.23 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.