Frosinone 0-0 Lecce – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Lecce at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Frosinone vs Lecce fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Frosinone host Lecce at Stadio Benito Stirpe in Serie B, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 20 November 2021 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Frosinone have gone 4W 5D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: D W D W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Frosinone, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Frosinone have posted 2W 3D 1L at Stadio Benito Stirpe — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Lecce — All Games: 6W 4D 0L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D D D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Lecce, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lecce's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 1L across 6 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.17 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Lecce — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Trading Patterns
Frosinone in-play and half-time data (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Lecce in-play and half-time data (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Frosinone 58% versus Lecce 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Frosinone 42% | Lecce 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Frosinone 1.07 xG and Lecce 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Frosinone attack 1.010 / defence 1.128 | Lecce attack 0.866 / defence 1.050. League average goals — home 1.011 / away 1.142. Data: 12 Frosinone games / 12 Lecce games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Frosinone 33% | Draw 32% | Lecce 35%. Fair-value odds: Frosinone 3.03 | Draw 3.12 | Lecce 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lecce at 35% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lecce offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.19 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates are neutral: Frosinone 67% | Lecce 50%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Frosinone vs Lecce | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadio Benito Stirpe • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Nov 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Frosinone 33% | Draw 32% | Lecce 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 45% | xG Frosinone 1.07 / Lecce 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Frosinone attack 1.010 / def 1.128 | Lecce attack 0.866 / def 1.050 | league avg home 1.011 / away 1.142 • Poisson stance: Lecce (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Frosinone xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Lecce xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Frosinone vs Lecce kick off?
Frosinone vs Lecce kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 20 November 2021 at Stadio Benito Stirpe.
What was the final score in Frosinone vs Lecce?
Frosinone 0 - 0 Lecce.
Where is Frosinone vs Lecce being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Benito Stirpe.
What competition is Frosinone vs Lecce part of?
Frosinone vs Lecce is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Frosinone vs Lecce?
Our statistical model gives Frosinone a 33% chance of winning, Lecce a 35% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Lecce the favourite.
Will both teams score in Frosinone vs Lecce?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Frosinone and Lecce will score (BTTS).
Will Frosinone vs Lecce have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Frosinone and Lecce?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Frosinone and Lecce in?
Frosinone (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-D-W-W. Lecce (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Frosinone's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Lecce's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.07. The same calculation in reverse, Lecce's attack versus Frosinone's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.0%), 0-1 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lecce Win
33%
3.03
32%
3.15
35%
2.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Frosinone xG
Total xG
2.19
1.12
Lecce xG
3.03
33%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
2.84
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
33%
3.05
34%
2.92
Win to Nil
11%
9.25
12%
8.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 12.5 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 13.4 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.2 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Frosinone vs Lecce?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Frosinone and Lecce expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Frosinone and 1.12 for Lecce, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Frosinone vs Lecce?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Frosinone's recent record stands at 5W 6D 1L from 12 games, a 1.75 PPG return, with D-W-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for Frosinone is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lecce, meanwhile, have gone 6W 5D 1L across 12 games — 1.92 PPG, with D-D-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Lecce is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Frosinone on 1.75 PPG, Lecce on 1.92. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Frosinone have managed 2W 3D 1L from 6 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lecce's away record stands at 2W 3D 1L across 6 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.92 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Lecce's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Frosinone are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; Lecce are on 1.75 scored and 0.83 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Lecce in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Frosinone
Blended
Lecce
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Frosinone and Lecce in coming into this match?
Frosinone have gone 5W 6D 1L in their last 12 games (1.75 PPG), while Lecce have gone 6W 5D 1L in their last 12 (1.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Frosinone at home or Lecce away?
Frosinone's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Frosinone at home: 1.50 PPG; Lecce away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Frosinone or Lecce been keeping clean sheets recently?
Frosinone have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Lecce in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie B, Serie A all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Frosinone's record when hosting Lecce specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Frosinone
2
Draws
2
Lecce
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Frosinone and Lecce?
From 4 meetings on record, Frosinone have won 0, Lecce have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Frosinone and Lecce last play each other?
They last met on 3 March 2024, when Frosinone 1-1 Lecce.
Who has won more matches between Frosinone and Lecce?
Lecce have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Frosinone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Lecce see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Frosinone 67%, Lecce 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Frosinone) and 50% (Lecce). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lecce in 33%; Frosinone have failed to score in 33% of games; Lecce in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Frosinone home games / Lecce away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Frosinone play Lecce?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Frosinone's games and 50% of Lecce's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Frosinone vs Lecce usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Frosinone's matches and 50% of Lecce's.
Do Frosinone and Lecce tend to score early?
Frosinone have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Lecce in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Frosinone's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Frosinone and Lecce finished level at 0-0 at Stadio Benito Stirpe, Regular Season - 13, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Frosinone 1.07 xG and Lecce 1.12 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Frosinone fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Lecce landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Frosinone attack 1.01 / defence 1.13 against Lecce attack 0.87 / defence 1.05, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Frosinone 33% | Draw 32% | Lecce 35%, with Lecce to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Frosinone 42%, Lecce 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Frosinone's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Lecce's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Frosinone 1.75 PPG, Lecce 1.92 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Frosinone (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Lecce (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.