Frosinone 2-1 Crotone – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Frosinone at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Frosinone vs Crotone encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Crotone travel to Stadio Benito Stirpe to take on Frosinone. The game is scheduled for Monday 1 November 2021, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Frosinone have gone 3W 6D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: D L D W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Frosinone, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Frosinone at Stadio Benito Stirpe this season: 1W 3D 1L from 5 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Crotone stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Serie B matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Crotone, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Crotone away from home this season: 0W 1D 3L from 4 away games — 0.25 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Frosinone carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Data
Frosinone trading profile (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Crotone trading profile (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Frosinone 50% versus Crotone 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Frosinone 30% | Crotone 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Frosinone 1.33 xG and Crotone 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Frosinone attack 0.977 / defence 1.119 | Crotone attack 0.765 / defence 1.364. League average goals — home 1.001 / away 1.134. Crotone bring a strong defensive rating of 1.364 — this is suppressing Frosinone's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 10 Frosinone games / 10 Crotone games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Frosinone 43% | Draw 31% | Crotone 25%. Fair-value odds: Frosinone 2.33 | Draw 3.23 | Crotone 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Frosinone at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Frosinone offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.31 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Frosinone 60% | Crotone 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Frosinone vs Crotone | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadio Benito Stirpe • Kick-off: Monday 1 Nov 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Frosinone 43% | Draw 31% | Crotone 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG Frosinone 1.33 / Crotone 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Frosinone attack 0.977 / def 1.119 | Crotone attack 0.765 / def 1.364 | league avg home 1.001 / away 1.134 • Poisson stance: Frosinone (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Frosinone xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Crotone xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Frosinone vs Crotone kick off?
Frosinone vs Crotone kicked off at 14:00 on Monday 1 November 2021 at Stadio Benito Stirpe.
What was the final score in Frosinone vs Crotone?
Frosinone 2 - 1 Crotone.
Where is Frosinone vs Crotone being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Benito Stirpe.
What competition is Frosinone vs Crotone part of?
Frosinone vs Crotone is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Frosinone vs Crotone?
Our statistical model gives Frosinone a 43% chance of winning, Crotone a 25% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Frosinone the favourite.
Will both teams score in Frosinone vs Crotone?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Frosinone and Crotone will score (BTTS).
Will Frosinone vs Crotone have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Frosinone and Crotone?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Frosinone and Crotone in?
Frosinone (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-L-D-W-D. Crotone (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Frosinone's attack rating (0.98) and Crotone's defence rating (1.36), the model arrives at 1.33 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Crotone's attack versus Frosinone's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 1-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Frosinone Win
43%
2.31
31%
3.19
25%
3.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Frosinone xG
Total xG
2.31
0.97
Crotone xG
2.31
43%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
3.94
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
16%
6.11
7%
14.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 9.7 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 12.9 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 8.6 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Frosinone vs Crotone?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Frosinone and Crotone expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Frosinone and 0.97 for Crotone, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Frosinone vs Crotone?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Frosinone's recent record stands at 3W 6D 1L from 10 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with D-L-D-W-D in the last five. The sample for Frosinone is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Crotone, meanwhile, have gone 1W 4D 5L across 10 games — 0.70 PPG, with L-D-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Crotone is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Frosinone by 0.80 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Crotone heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Frosinone have managed 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — 1.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Crotone's away record stands at 0W 1D 3L across 4 trips, a 0.25 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.70 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Crotone's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Frosinone come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Frosinone are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game recently; Crotone are on 1.10 scored and 1.90 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Crotone in 60%.
Defensively: Frosinone have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Frosinone
Blended
Crotone
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Frosinone and Crotone in coming into this match?
Frosinone have gone 3W 6D 1L in their last 10 games (1.50 PPG), while Crotone have gone 1W 4D 5L in their last 10 (0.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Frosinone at home or Crotone away?
Frosinone's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Frosinone at home: 1.25 PPG; Crotone away: 0.25 PPG.
Have Frosinone or Crotone been keeping clean sheets recently?
Frosinone have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Crotone in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Frosinone and Crotone runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Frosinone
0
Draws
1
Crotone
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Frosinone and Crotone?
From 2 meetings on record, Frosinone have won 1, Crotone have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Frosinone and Crotone last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2022, when Crotone 2-0 Frosinone.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Frosinone see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Crotone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Frosinone 50%, Crotone 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Frosinone) and 50% (Crotone).
On the defensive side: Frosinone have failed to score in 50% of games; Crotone in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Frosinone home games / Crotone away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Frosinone play Crotone?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Frosinone's recent matches and 50% of Crotone's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Frosinone vs Crotone usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Frosinone's recent games and 50% of Crotone's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Frosinone and Crotone tend to score early?
Frosinone have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Crotone in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Frosinone edge out Crotone 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Frosinone beat Crotone 2-1 at Stadio Benito Stirpe, Regular Season - 11, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Frosinone 1.33 xG and Crotone 0.97 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Frosinone attack 0.98 / defence 1.12 against Crotone attack 0.77 / defence 1.36, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Frosinone 43% | Draw 31% | Crotone 25%, with Frosinone to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Frosinone 30%, Crotone 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Frosinone's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Crotone's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Frosinone arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.70. That form edge translated into the three points. Frosinone (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.