Empoli 0-1 Sudtirol – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Empoli at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Empoli vs Sudtirol encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Empoli host Sudtirol at Stadio Carlo Castellani in Serie B, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 17 January 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Empoli have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: L L W D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Empoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Empoli at Stadio Carlo Castellani this season: 3W 6D 1L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sudtirol — All Games: 1W 6D 3L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sudtirol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sudtirol away from home this season: 0W 8D 2L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Empoli carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 0.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Empoli, 0 for Sudtirol and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 Oct 2025, ended 2–1 with Empoli winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Empoli in-play tendencies (57 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Sudtirol in-play tendencies (57 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Empoli 56% versus Sudtirol 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Empoli 47% | Sudtirol 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Empoli 1.33 xG and Sudtirol 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Empoli attack 1.090 / defence 1.117 | Sudtirol attack 0.867 / defence 0.930. League average goals — home 1.311 / away 1.021. Data: 19 Empoli games / 57 Sudtirol games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Empoli 43% | Draw 30% | Sudtirol 26%. Fair-value odds: Empoli 2.33 | Draw 3.33 | Sudtirol 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Empoli at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Empoli offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.32 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. This conflicts with form data: Empoli 80% | Sudtirol 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Empoli vs Sudtirol | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stadio Carlo Castellani • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Jan 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Empoli 43% | Draw 30% | Sudtirol 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Empoli 1.33 / Sudtirol 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Empoli attack 1.090 / def 1.117 | Sudtirol attack 0.867 / def 0.930 | league avg home 1.311 / away 1.021 • Poisson stance: Empoli (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Empoli xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Sudtirol xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Empoli vs Sudtirol kick off?
Empoli vs Sudtirol kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 17 January 2026 at Stadio Carlo Castellani.
What was the final score in Empoli vs Sudtirol?
Empoli 0 - 1 Sudtirol.
Where is Empoli vs Sudtirol being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Carlo Castellani.
What competition is Empoli vs Sudtirol part of?
Empoli vs Sudtirol is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Empoli vs Sudtirol?
Our statistical model gives Empoli a 43% chance of winning, Sudtirol a 26% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Empoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Empoli vs Sudtirol?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Empoli and Sudtirol will score (BTTS).
Will Empoli vs Sudtirol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Sudtirol?
Record (1 meetings): Empoli 1W | Draws 0 | Sudtirol 0W.
What form are Empoli and Sudtirol in?
Empoli (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-L-W-D-W. Sudtirol (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Empoli's attack rating (1.09) and Sudtirol's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.33 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sudtirol's attack versus Empoli's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 1-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Empoli Win
43%
2.31
30%
3.30
26%
3.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
9.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Empoli xG
Total xG
2.32
0.99
Sudtirol xG
2.31
43%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
3.78
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
26%
3.78
Win to Nil
16%
6.21
7%
14.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 9.7 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 12.9 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 8.6 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Empoli vs Sudtirol?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Empoli and Sudtirol expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Empoli and 0.99 for Sudtirol, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Empoli vs Sudtirol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 57 outings, Empoli have picked up 1.02 PPG on a 13W 19D 25L record — L-L-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Empoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sudtirol's form line: 15W 20D 22L from 57 games, 1.14 PPG, last five D-D-D-L-W. The sample for Sudtirol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Empoli on 1.02 PPG, Sudtirol on 1.14. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Empoli have posted 0.97 PPG from 29 outings (5W 13D 11L).
On the road, Sudtirol have gone 6W 11D 12L from 29 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Empoli are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Sudtirol are on 1.19 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 57 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Empoli
Blended
Sudtirol
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Empoli and Sudtirol in coming into this match?
Empoli have gone 13W 19D 25L in their last 57 games (1.02 PPG), while Sudtirol have gone 15W 20D 22L in their last 57 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Empoli at home or Sudtirol away?
Sudtirol's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Empoli at home: 0.97 PPG; Sudtirol away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Empoli
0
Draws
1
Sudtirol
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Sudtirol?
From 2 meetings on record, Empoli have won 1, Sudtirol have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Empoli and Sudtirol last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Empoli 0-1 Sudtirol.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Empoli see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Empoli 52%, Sudtirol 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Empoli) and 45% (Sudtirol).
On the defensive side: Empoli have failed to score in 38% of games; Sudtirol in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Empoli home games / Sudtirol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Empoli play Sudtirol?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Empoli's recent matches and 52% of Sudtirol's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Empoli vs Sudtirol usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Empoli's recent games and 45% of Sudtirol's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Empoli and Sudtirol tend to score early?
Empoli have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Sudtirol in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sudtirol defy the odds to beat Empoli 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sudtirol beat Empoli 0-1 at Stadio Carlo Castellani, Regular Season - 20, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Empoli 1.33 xG and Sudtirol 0.99 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Empoli fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Empoli attack 1.09 / defence 1.12 against Sudtirol attack 0.87 / defence 0.93, drawn from 19/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Empoli 43% | Draw 30% | Sudtirol 26%, with Empoli to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Sudtirol win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Empoli 47%, Sudtirol 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Empoli's trading profile (57 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sudtirol's trading profile (57 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Empoli 1.02 PPG, Sudtirol 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sudtirol win broke the near-deadlock. Empoli (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward. Sudtirol (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.