Crotone 0-0 Cittadella – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Cittadella at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Crotone vs Cittadella encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Cittadella travel to Stadio Ezio Scida to take on Crotone. The game is scheduled for Saturday 5 February 2022, 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Crotone have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L L W D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Crotone, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Crotone have posted 2W 4D 4L at Stadio Ezio Scida — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cittadella stand at 4W 6D 0L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W D D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cittadella, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Cittadella have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Cittadella's 1.80 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Crotone's 0.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Crotone, 1 for Cittadella and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 6.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2021, ended 2–4 with Cittadella winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Crotone in-play and half-time data (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Cittadella in-play and half-time data (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crotone 65% versus Cittadella 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Crotone 50% | Cittadella 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crotone 1.27 xG and Cittadella 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crotone attack 1.041 / defence 1.323 | Cittadella attack 0.847 / defence 1.250. League average goals — home 0.973 / away 1.249. Cittadella bring a strong defensive rating of 1.250 — this is suppressing Crotone's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 20 Crotone games / 20 Cittadella games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crotone 33% | Draw 29% | Cittadella 39%. Fair-value odds: Crotone 3.03 | Draw 3.45 | Cittadella 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cittadella at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cittadella offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.67 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Crotone 70% | Cittadella 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crotone vs Cittadella | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadio Ezio Scida • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Feb 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crotone 33% | Draw 29% | Cittadella 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Crotone 1.27 / Cittadella 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Crotone attack 1.041 / def 1.323 | Cittadella attack 0.847 / def 1.250 | league avg home 0.973 / away 1.249 • Poisson stance: Cittadella (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Crotone xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Cittadella xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crotone vs Cittadella kick off?
Crotone vs Cittadella kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 5 February 2022 at Stadio Ezio Scida.
What was the final score in Crotone vs Cittadella?
Crotone 0 - 0 Cittadella.
Where is Crotone vs Cittadella being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ezio Scida.
What competition is Crotone vs Cittadella part of?
Crotone vs Cittadella is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Crotone vs Cittadella?
Our statistical model gives Crotone a 33% chance of winning, Cittadella a 39% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Cittadella the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crotone vs Cittadella?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Crotone and Cittadella will score (BTTS).
Will Crotone vs Cittadella have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crotone and Cittadella?
Record (1 meetings): Crotone 0W | Draws 0 | Cittadella 1W.
What form are Crotone and Cittadella in?
Crotone (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-D-D. Cittadella (all comps): 4W-6D-0L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Crotone's attack at 1.04x the league average against Cittadella's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cittadella's attack versus Crotone's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 0-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cittadella Win
33%
3.07
29%
3.49
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Crotone xG
Total xG
2.67
1.40
Cittadella xG
3.07
33%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.80
45%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
25%
4.06
28%
3.55
Win to Nil
8%
12.47
11%
9.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 9.7 | 6.8 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.3 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.8 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crotone vs Cittadella?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Crotone and Cittadella expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Crotone and 1.40 for Cittadella, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Crotone vs Cittadella?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Crotone come into this having played 20 games, going 2W 7D 11L for 0.65 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-D-D. The sample for Crotone is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Cittadella sit at 1.55 PPG from 20 outings (8W 7D 5L), a run that reads W-W-D-D-D across their last five. The sample for Cittadella is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cittadella carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.90 PPG clear of Crotone — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Crotone's home form reads 2W 4D 4L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Cittadella have taken 1.30 points per game from 10 outings (3W 4D 3L).
The Goals Picture
Crotone are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Cittadella are on 1.25 scored and 1.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Crotone have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Defensively: Cittadella in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crotone
Blended
Cittadella
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crotone and Cittadella in coming into this match?
Crotone have gone 2W 7D 11L in their last 20 games (0.65 PPG), while Cittadella have gone 8W 7D 5L in their last 20 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crotone at home or Cittadella away?
Cittadella's away record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crotone at home: 1.00 PPG; Cittadella away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Crotone or Cittadella been keeping clean sheets recently?
Crotone have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Cittadella in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Crotone and Cittadella runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Crotone
1
Draws
1
Cittadella
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crotone and Cittadella?
From 2 meetings on record, Crotone have won 0, Cittadella have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Crotone and Cittadella last play each other?
They last met on 5 February 2022, when Crotone 0-0 Cittadella.
Who has won more matches between Crotone and Cittadella?
Cittadella have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Crotone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Cittadella are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crotone 70%, Cittadella 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Crotone) and 20% (Cittadella).
On the defensive side: Crotone have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crotone home games / Cittadella away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crotone play Cittadella?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Crotone's games and 50% of Cittadella's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Crotone vs Cittadella usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Crotone's recent games and 20% of Cittadella's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crotone and Cittadella tend to score early?
Crotone have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Cittadella in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Crotone's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Crotone and Cittadella finished level at 0-0 at Stadio Ezio Scida, Regular Season - 21, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crotone 1.27 xG and Cittadella 1.40 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Crotone fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Cittadella landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crotone attack 1.04 / defence 1.32 against Cittadella attack 0.85 / defence 1.25, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crotone 33% | Draw 29% | Cittadella 39%, with Cittadella to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crotone 50%, Cittadella 30%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crotone's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cittadella's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Cittadella arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 0.65. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Crotone (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line. Cittadella (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.