Cremonese 2-0 Ternana – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cremonese at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cremonese vs Ternana encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ternana make the trip to Stadio Giovanni Zini to face Cremonese in Serie B, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Saturday 2 October 2021 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Cremonese have collected 2.00 PPG across 6 Serie B outings this season: 4W 0D 2L. Last five: L W W L W. They are averaging 1.33 goals per game and conceding 0.83 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 6 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 17% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Cremonese have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cremonese's form when playing at home: 2W 0D 1L across 3 games at Stadio Giovanni Zini this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 3 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
Ternana (all games): 2W 1D 3L across 6 Serie B outings this term — 1.17 points per game. Last five: L L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.33 per game is modest, conceding 1.83 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Ternana have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form ledger tips toward Cremonese. A 0.83 PPG lead over Ternana (2.00 vs 1.17) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading Data
Cremonese goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (6 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Ternana goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (6 games): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cremonese 17% versus Ternana 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cremonese 50% | Ternana 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cremonese 1.51 xG and Ternana 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cremonese attack 1.066 / defence 1.121 | Ternana attack 0.924 / defence 1.297. League average goals — home 1.092 / away 1.327. Ternana bring a strong defensive rating of 1.297 — this is suppressing Cremonese's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 6 Cremonese games / 6 Ternana games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cremonese 38% | Draw 29% | Ternana 32%. Fair-value odds: Cremonese 2.63 | Draw 3.45 | Ternana 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.51 / 1.37) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cremonese at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cremonese if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.88 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Cremonese 0% | Ternana 67% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cremonese vs Ternana | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stadio Giovanni Zini • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Oct 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cremonese 38% | Draw 29% | Ternana 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 60% | xG Cremonese 1.51 / Ternana 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Cremonese attack 1.066 / def 1.121 | Ternana attack 0.924 / def 1.297 | league avg home 1.092 / away 1.327 • Poisson stance: Cremonese (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Cremonese xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Ternana xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cremonese vs Ternana kick off?
Cremonese vs Ternana kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 2 October 2021 at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What was the final score in Cremonese vs Ternana?
Cremonese 2 - 0 Ternana.
Where is Cremonese vs Ternana being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What competition is Cremonese vs Ternana part of?
Cremonese vs Ternana is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cremonese vs Ternana?
Our statistical model gives Cremonese a 38% chance of winning, Ternana a 32% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Cremonese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cremonese vs Ternana?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Cremonese and Ternana will score (BTTS).
Will Cremonese vs Ternana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Ternana?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cremonese and Ternana in?
Cremonese (all comps): 4W-0D-2L in 6 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 0.83 | L5 L-W-W-L-W. Ternana (all comps): 2W-1D-3L in 6 | 1.17 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 1.83 | L5 L-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Cremonese's attack at 1.07x the league average against Ternana's defence at 1.30x — combine the two and it projects 1.51 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Ternana's attack (0.92x) against Cremonese's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.37.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cremonese Win
38%
2.60
29%
3.42
32%
3.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Cremonese xG
Total xG
2.88
1.37
Ternana xG
2.60
38%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
3.09
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
25%
3.95
22%
4.53
Win to Nil
10%
10.28
7%
13.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 7.7 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 11.6 | 8.0 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.8 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.4 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cremonese vs Ternana?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Cremonese and Ternana expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Cremonese and 1.37 for Ternana, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Cremonese vs Ternana?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Cremonese's recent record stands at 4W 0D 2L from 6 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Cremonese, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ternana, meanwhile, have gone 2W 1D 3L across 6 games — 1.17 PPG, with L-L-D-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Ternana, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Cremonese by 0.83 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ternana heading into this one.
Attack vs Defence
Cremonese are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; Ternana are on 1.33 scored and 1.83 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cremonese have seen both teams score in 17% of their recent games; Ternana in 67%.
Defensively: Cremonese have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 6 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cremonese
Early Season
Ternana
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cremonese and Ternana in coming into this match?
Cremonese have gone 4W 0D 2L in their last 6 games (2.00 PPG), while Ternana have gone 2W 1D 3L in their last 6 (1.17 PPG).
Have Cremonese or Ternana been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cremonese have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Ternana in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cremonese have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Ternana — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Cremonese
0
Draws
1
Ternana
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Ternana?
From 4 meetings on record, Cremonese have won 3, Ternana have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cremonese and Ternana last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2024, when Cremonese 1-2 Ternana.
Who has won more matches between Cremonese and Ternana?
Cremonese have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Ternana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cremonese 17%, Ternana 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Cremonese) and 50% (Ternana).
On the defensive side: Cremonese keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Cremonese have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cremonese home games / Ternana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cremonese play Ternana?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 17% of Cremonese's recent matches and 67% of Ternana's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cremonese vs Ternana usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Cremonese's recent games and 50% of Ternana's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cremonese and Ternana tend to score early?
Cremonese have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Ternana in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cremonese cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Ternana.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cremonese beat Ternana 2-0 at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Regular Season - 7, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cremonese 1.51 xG and Ternana 1.37 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Ternana landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cremonese attack 1.07 / defence 1.12 against Ternana attack 0.92 / defence 1.30, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cremonese 38% | Draw 29% | Ternana 32%, with Cremonese to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cremonese 50%, Ternana 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cremonese's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 17% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Ternana's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Cremonese arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.17. That form edge translated into the three points. Cremonese conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line. Ternana managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.