Cremonese 1-2 Ternana – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Cremonese (46%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Cremonese face Ternana.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ternana make the trip to Stadio Giovanni Zini to face Cremonese in Serie B, Regular Season - 33. The match kicks off on Saturday 13 April 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Cremonese have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W W L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Cremonese's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Stadio Giovanni Zini this term (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Giovanni Zini. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Ternana (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Ternana have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Cremonese. A 0.60 PPG lead over Ternana (1.80 vs 1.20) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record favours Cremonese, who have won 3 of the last 3 meetings against Ternana — a 0D 0W return for the visitors.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2023, ended 1–0 with Cremonese winning.
The historical record gives Cremonese a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 3 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Data
Cremonese goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (70 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Ternana goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (70 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cremonese 49% versus Ternana 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cremonese 47% | Ternana 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cremonese 1.52 xG and Ternana 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cremonese attack 0.924 / defence 0.866 | Ternana attack 0.980 / defence 1.306. League average goals — home 1.257 / away 1.244. Ternana bring a strong defensive rating of 1.306 — this is suppressing Cremonese's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 32 Cremonese games / 70 Ternana games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cremonese 46% | Draw 29% | Ternana 25%. Fair-value odds: Cremonese 2.17 | Draw 3.45 | Ternana 4.00. Cremonese hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cremonese at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cremonese if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.57 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Cremonese 30% | Ternana 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cremonese vs Ternana | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Stadio Giovanni Zini • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Apr 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cremonese 46% | Draw 29% | Ternana 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 53% | xG Cremonese 1.52 / Ternana 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Cremonese attack 0.924 / def 0.866 | Ternana attack 0.980 / def 1.306 | league avg home 1.257 / away 1.244 • Poisson stance: Cremonese (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Cremonese xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Ternana xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cremonese vs Ternana kick off?
Cremonese vs Ternana kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 13 April 2024 at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What was the final score in Cremonese vs Ternana?
Cremonese 1 - 2 Ternana.
Where is Cremonese vs Ternana being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What competition is Cremonese vs Ternana part of?
Cremonese vs Ternana is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cremonese vs Ternana?
Our statistical model gives Cremonese a 46% chance of winning, Ternana a 25% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Cremonese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cremonese vs Ternana?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Cremonese and Ternana will score (BTTS).
Will Cremonese vs Ternana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Ternana?
Record (3 meetings): Cremonese 3W | Draws 0 | Ternana 0W.
What form are Cremonese and Ternana in?
Cremonese (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. Ternana (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Cremonese's attack at 0.92x the league average against Ternana's defence at 1.31x — combine the two and it projects 1.52 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Ternana's attack (0.98x) against Cremonese's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 32/70 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cremonese Win
46%
2.16
29%
3.44
25%
4.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Cremonese xG
Total xG
2.57
1.05
Ternana xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
4.04
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
22%
4.55
Win to Nil
16%
6.21
5%
18.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 8.1 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 12.2 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cremonese vs Ternana?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Cremonese and Ternana expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Cremonese and 1.05 for Ternana, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Cremonese vs Ternana?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Cremonese's recent record stands at 22W 20D 28L from 70 games, a 1.23 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-W in the last five.
Ternana, meanwhile, have gone 19W 19D 32L across 70 games — 1.09 PPG, with L-L-W-L-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.23 PPG for Cremonese against 1.09 for Ternana. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Cremonese have managed 11W 9D 14L from 34 games — 1.24 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ternana's away record stands at 7W 7D 20L across 34 trips, a 0.82 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cremonese come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Cremonese are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Ternana are on 1.04 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 70 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cremonese
Current Season
Ternana
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cremonese and Ternana in coming into this match?
Cremonese have gone 22W 20D 28L in their last 70 games (1.23 PPG), while Ternana have gone 19W 19D 32L in their last 70 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cremonese at home or Ternana away?
Cremonese's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cremonese at home: 1.24 PPG; Ternana away: 0.82 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cremonese have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Ternana — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Cremonese
0
Draws
1
Ternana
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Ternana?
From 4 meetings on record, Cremonese have won 3, Ternana have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cremonese and Ternana last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2024, when Cremonese 1-2 Ternana.
Who has won more matches between Cremonese and Ternana?
Cremonese have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Ternana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cremonese 38%, Ternana 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Cremonese) and 65% (Ternana).
On the defensive side: Cremonese keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Cremonese have failed to score in 35% of games; Ternana in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cremonese home games / Ternana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cremonese play Ternana?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Cremonese's recent matches and 62% of Ternana's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cremonese vs Ternana usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Cremonese's recent games and 65% of Ternana's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cremonese and Ternana tend to score early?
Cremonese have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Ternana in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Ternana defy the odds to beat Cremonese 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ternana beat Cremonese 1-2 at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Regular Season - 33, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cremonese 1.52 xG and Ternana 1.05 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Ternana outscored their 1.05 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cremonese attack 0.92 / defence 0.87 against Ternana attack 0.98 / defence 1.31, drawn from 32/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cremonese 46% | Draw 29% | Ternana 25%, with Cremonese to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Ternana win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cremonese 47%, Ternana 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cremonese's trading profile (70 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Ternana's trading profile (70 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cremonese 1.23 PPG, Ternana 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ternana win broke the near-deadlock. Ternana (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.