Cremonese 1-1 Reggiana – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Cremonese at 46% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cremonese vs Reggiana encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Cremonese and Reggiana meet at Stadio Giovanni Zini in Serie B (matchday 24). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 10 February 2024 at 13:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Cremonese have collected 2.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.

Cremonese's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Reggiana (all games): 3W 5D 2L across their last 10 — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W D D W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

Reggiana away from home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Cremonese's favour (2.20 vs 1.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for Cremonese, 0 for Reggiana and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 4.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 16 Sep 2023, ended Cremonese 2–2 Reggiana — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Cremonese half-time and goal-timing data (last 23 games, 11 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.

Reggiana half-time and goal-timing data (last 23 games, 11 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cremonese 35% versus Reggiana 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cremonese 44% | Reggiana 48%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Cremonese surrender their half-time lead 25% of the time, while Reggiana have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Cremonese 1.37 xG and Reggiana 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cremonese attack 0.935 / defence 0.714 | Reggiana attack 1.109 / defence 1.098. League average goals — home 1.336 / away 1.192. Cremonese have a tight defence (rating 0.714), which is pulling Reggiana's projected output down. Data: built from Cremonese's last 23 games and Reggiana's last 23.

Result probabilities: Cremonese 46% | Draw 28% | Reggiana 25%. Fair-value odds: Cremonese 2.16 | Draw 3.51 | Reggiana 3.95. Cremonese hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Cremonese at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cremonese if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.32 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 59% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Cremonese 30% (last 10 home games) | Reggiana 50% (last 10 away games).

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