Cremonese 1-1 Juve Stabia – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Cremonese at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cremonese vs Juve Stabia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 33 as Cremonese welcome Juve Stabia to Stadio Giovanni Zini. Kick-off is set for Sunday 13 April 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Cremonese have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: D W W D W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cremonese have posted 4W 4D 2L at Stadio Giovanni Zini — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Juve Stabia — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Juve Stabia's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Cremonese) versus 1.90 (Juve Stabia). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Cremonese, 0 for Juve Stabia and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 20 Oct 2024, ended 2–1 with Cremonese winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Cremonese trading profile (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Juve Stabia trading profile (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cremonese 62% versus Juve Stabia 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cremonese 56% | Juve Stabia 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cremonese 1.76 xG and Juve Stabia 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cremonese attack 1.243 / defence 1.105 | Juve Stabia attack 0.865 / defence 1.117. League average goals — home 1.271 / away 1.174. Data: 70 Cremonese games / 32 Juve Stabia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cremonese 51% | Draw 26% | Juve Stabia 23%. Fair-value odds: Cremonese 1.96 | Draw 3.85 | Juve Stabia 4.35. Cremonese hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Cremonese as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cremonese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.89 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cremonese 70% | Juve Stabia 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cremonese vs Juve Stabia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Stadio Giovanni Zini • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Apr 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cremonese 51% | Draw 26% | Juve Stabia 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 57% | xG Cremonese 1.76 / Juve Stabia 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Cremonese attack 1.243 / def 1.105 | Juve Stabia attack 0.865 / def 1.117 | league avg home 1.271 / away 1.174 • Poisson stance: Cremonese (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Cremonese xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Juve Stabia xG
57%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cremonese vs Juve Stabia kick off?
Cremonese vs Juve Stabia kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 13 April 2025 at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What was the final score in Cremonese vs Juve Stabia?
Cremonese 1 - 1 Juve Stabia.
Where is Cremonese vs Juve Stabia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What competition is Cremonese vs Juve Stabia part of?
Cremonese vs Juve Stabia is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cremonese vs Juve Stabia?
Our statistical model gives Cremonese a 51% chance of winning, Juve Stabia a 23% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Cremonese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cremonese vs Juve Stabia?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Cremonese and Juve Stabia will score (BTTS).
Will Cremonese vs Juve Stabia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Juve Stabia?
Record (1 meetings): Cremonese 1W | Draws 0 | Juve Stabia 0W.
What form are Cremonese and Juve Stabia in?
Cremonese (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-W-D-W. Juve Stabia (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Cremonese's attack at 1.24x the league average against Juve Stabia's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.76 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Juve Stabia's attack versus Cremonese's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 70/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cremonese Win
51%
1.96
26%
3.80
23%
4.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Cremonese xG
Total xG
2.89
1.12
Juve Stabia xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
4.41
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
33%
3.07
17%
5.84
Win to Nil
17%
6.03
4%
25.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 6.3 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 11.0 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.7 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cremonese vs Juve Stabia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Cremonese and Juve Stabia expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Cremonese and 1.12 for Juve Stabia, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Cremonese vs Juve Stabia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 32 outings, Cremonese have picked up 1.62 PPG on a 14W 10D 8L record — D-W-W-D-W across the most recent five.
Juve Stabia's form line: 13W 10D 9L from 32 games, 1.53 PPG, last five L-D-W-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cremonese on 1.62 PPG, Juve Stabia on 1.53. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Cremonese have posted 1.50 PPG from 16 outings (6W 6D 4L).
On the road, Juve Stabia have gone 4W 7D 5L from 16 away games — 1.19 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Cremonese are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Juve Stabia are on 1.19 scored and 1.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cremonese have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 32 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cremonese
Current Season
Juve Stabia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cremonese and Juve Stabia in coming into this match?
Cremonese have gone 14W 10D 8L in their last 32 games (1.62 PPG), while Juve Stabia have gone 13W 10D 9L in their last 32 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cremonese at home or Juve Stabia away?
Cremonese's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cremonese at home: 1.50 PPG; Juve Stabia away: 1.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 May 2025, when Cremonese won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cremonese's record when hosting Juve Stabia specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Cremonese
1
Draws
1
Juve Stabia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Juve Stabia?
From 4 meetings on record, Cremonese have won 2, Juve Stabia have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cremonese and Juve Stabia last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2025, when Cremonese 3-0 Juve Stabia.
Who has won more matches between Cremonese and Juve Stabia?
Cremonese have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Juve Stabia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Cremonese at 69%, Juve Stabia at 62%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Cremonese) and 50% (Juve Stabia).
On the defensive side: Juve Stabia in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cremonese home games / Juve Stabia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cremonese play Juve Stabia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Cremonese's games and 62% of Juve Stabia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cremonese vs Juve Stabia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Cremonese's recent games and 50% of Juve Stabia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cremonese and Juve Stabia tend to score early?
Cremonese have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Juve Stabia in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cremonese and Juve Stabia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cremonese and Juve Stabia finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Regular Season - 33, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cremonese 1.76 xG and Juve Stabia 1.12 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cremonese attack 1.24 / defence 1.10 against Juve Stabia attack 0.86 / defence 1.12, drawn from 70/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cremonese 51% | Draw 26% | Juve Stabia 23%, with Cremonese to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cremonese 56%, Juve Stabia 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cremonese's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Juve Stabia's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cremonese 1.62 PPG, Juve Stabia 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.