Como 3-1 Ternana – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Como at 52% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Como vs Ternana encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Como host Ternana at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia in Serie B, Regular Season - 37. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 13 May 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Como — All Games: 2W 6D 2L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D D D D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Como at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Across all Serie B games this season, Ternana have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Ternana away from home this season: 0W 4D 6L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Como at 1.20 PPG versus Ternana's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Como, 0 for Ternana and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Dec 2022, ended 3–0 with Como winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Como in-play tendencies (74 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 24% of games (home games).
Ternana in-play tendencies (74 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 42% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Como 60% versus Ternana 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Como 36% | Ternana 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Como 1.47 xG and Ternana 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Como attack 1.115 / defence 1.014 | Ternana attack 0.735 / defence 1.127. League average goals — home 1.167 / away 1.022. Data: 74 Como games / 74 Ternana games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Como 52% | Draw 30% | Ternana 18%. Fair-value odds: Como 1.92 | Draw 3.33 | Ternana 5.56. Como hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Como as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Como offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.23 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Como 50% | Ternana 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Como vs Ternana | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia • Kick-off: Saturday 13 May 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Como 52% | Draw 30% | Ternana 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 43% | xG Como 1.47 / Ternana 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Como attack 1.115 / def 1.014 | Ternana attack 0.735 / def 1.127 | league avg home 1.167 / away 1.022 • Poisson stance: Como (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Como xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Ternana xG
43%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Como vs Ternana kick off?
Como vs Ternana kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 13 May 2023 at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia.
What was the final score in Como vs Ternana?
Como 3 - 1 Ternana.
Where is Como vs Ternana being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia.
What competition is Como vs Ternana part of?
Como vs Ternana is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Como vs Ternana?
Our statistical model gives Como a 52% chance of winning, Ternana a 18% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Como the favourite.
Will both teams score in Como vs Ternana?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Como and Ternana will score (BTTS).
Will Como vs Ternana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Como and Ternana?
Record (3 meetings): Como 2W | Draws 1 | Ternana 0W.
What form are Como and Ternana in?
Como (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-D-D-L. Ternana (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Como's attack at 1.11x the league average against Ternana's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.47 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ternana's attack versus Como's defence, projects 0.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 74/74 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.6%), 0-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Como Win
52%
1.92
30%
3.32
18%
5.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Como xG
Total xG
2.23
0.76
Ternana xG
1.92
52%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
5.64
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
47%
2.14
23%
4.33
Win to Nil
24%
4.11
4%
24.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 8.2 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.8 | 12.0 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 8.8 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.7 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Como vs Ternana?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Como and Ternana expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Como and 0.76 for Ternana, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Como vs Ternana?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Como come into this having played 74 games, going 20W 30D 24L for 1.22 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-D-L.
On the other side, Ternana sit at 1.31 PPG from 74 outings (26W 19D 29L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Como on 1.22 PPG, Ternana on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Como's home form reads 12W 14D 11L across 37 games on their own ground, a 1.35 PPG return.
Away from home, Ternana have taken 1.05 points per game from 37 outings (9W 12D 16L).
The Goals Picture
Como are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Ternana are on 1.24 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 74 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Como
Current Season
Ternana
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Como and Ternana in coming into this match?
Como have gone 20W 30D 24L in their last 74 games (1.22 PPG), while Ternana have gone 26W 19D 29L in their last 74 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Como at home or Ternana away?
Como's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Como at home: 1.35 PPG; Ternana away: 1.05 PPG.
Have Como or Ternana been keeping clean sheets recently?
Como have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Ternana in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Como and Ternana runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Como go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Dec 2022, when Como won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Como's record when hosting Ternana specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Como
1
Draws
0
Ternana
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Como and Ternana?
From 6 meetings on record, Como have won 5, Ternana have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Como and Ternana last play each other?
They last met on 3 February 2024, when Ternana 0-1 Como.
Who has won more matches between Como and Ternana?
Como have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Como are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Ternana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Como 54%, Ternana 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 24% (Como) and 57% (Ternana).
On the defensive side: Ternana in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Como home games / Ternana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Como play Ternana?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Como's games and 68% of Ternana's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Como vs Ternana usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 24% of Como's recent games and 57% of Ternana's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Como and Ternana tend to score early?
Como have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Ternana in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Como cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Ternana.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Como beat Ternana 3-1 at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia, Regular Season - 37, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Como 1.47 xG and Ternana 0.76 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Como beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Como attack 1.11 / defence 1.01 against Ternana attack 0.73 / defence 1.13, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Como 52% | Draw 30% | Ternana 18%, with Como to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Como 36%, Ternana 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Como's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Ternana's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Como 1.22 PPG, Ternana 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Como win broke the near-deadlock. Como (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.22 average — above their attacking norm. Ternana (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.68 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.