Como 1-1 Cosenza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Como at 39% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Como vs Cosenza encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Como and Cosenza meet at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia in Serie B (matchday 38). This fixture gets under way on Friday 10 May 2024 at 20:30 UK time.
Current Form
Como's record over their last 10 games: 7W 2D 1L (2.30 PPG). Last five: W W D W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters, Como have posted 7W 2D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Cosenza have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D W W W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Cosenza's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across their last 10 road games (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form favours the hosts. Como's 2.30 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Cosenza's 1.30 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 3 wins for Como, 2 for Cosenza and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.6 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 26 Dec 2023, ended Como 2–1 Cosenza — a Como win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.6 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Como half-time and goal-timing data (last 75 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 27 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Cosenza half-time and goal-timing data (last 75 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Como 53% versus Cosenza 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Como 47% | Cosenza 39%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Como surrender their half-time lead 26% of the time, while Cosenza have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 32% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Como 1.29 xG and Cosenza 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Como attack 1.243 / defence 0.902 | Cosenza attack 1.048 / defence 0.843. League average goals — home 1.234 / away 1.170. Data: built from Como's last 75 games and Cosenza's last 75.
Result probabilities: Como 39% | Draw 32% | Cosenza 30%. Fair-value odds: Como 2.59 | Draw 3.16 | Cosenza 3.37. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Como are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Como if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.40 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.6 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Como 60% (last 10 home games) | Cosenza 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Como vs Cosenza | Competition: Serie B, matchday 38 | Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia • Kick-off: Friday 10 May 2024 at 20:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Como 39% | Draw 32% | Cosenza 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Como 1.29 / Cosenza 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Como attack 1.243 / def 0.902 | Cosenza attack 1.048 / def 0.843 | league avg home 1.234 / away 1.170 • Poisson stance: Como (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Como xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Cosenza xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Como vs Cosenza FAQs
What time does Como vs Cosenza kick off?
Como vs Cosenza kicked off at 20:30 UK time on Friday 10 May 2024 at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia.
What was the final score in Como vs Cosenza?
Como 1 - 1 Cosenza.
Where is Como vs Cosenza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia.
What competition is Como vs Cosenza part of?
Como vs Cosenza is a Serie B fixture (matchday 38) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Como vs Cosenza?
Our statistical model gives Como a 39% chance of winning, Cosenza a 30% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Como the favourite.
Will both teams score in Como vs Cosenza?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Como and Cosenza will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Como vs Cosenza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Como's attacking strength (1.24x league average) is weighed against Cosenza's defensive record (0.84x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.29. Flip it around — Cosenza's attack (1.05x) against Como's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from Como's last 75 games and Cosenza's last 75 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.8%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Como Win
39%
2.59
32%
3.16
30%
3.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Como xG
Total xG
2.40
1.11
Cosenza xG
2.59
39%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
3.37
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
33%
3.02
27%
3.64
Win to Nil
13%
7.81
8%
12.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 10.0 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 13.0 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.4 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Como vs Cosenza Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Como vs Cosenza?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Como and Cosenza expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Como and 1.11 for Cosenza, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Como vs Cosenza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 75 outings, Como have picked up 1.59 PPG on a 31W 26D 18L record — W-W-D-W-D across the most recent five.
Cosenza's form line: 19W 27D 29L from 75 games, 1.12 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-D.
Put side by side, Como are the form team by 0.47 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cosenza.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Como have posted 1.92 PPG from their last 37 home games (20W 11D 6L).
On the road, Cosenza have gone 7W 13D 17L from their last 37 away games — 0.92 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Como come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Como are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Cosenza are on 1.00 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 75 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Como
Current Season
Cosenza
Current Season
Como (Home) vs Cosenza (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Como
Current Season
Cosenza
Current Season
❓ Como vs Cosenza Form FAQs
What form are Como and Cosenza in coming into this match?
Como have gone 31W 26D 18L in their last 75 games (1.59 PPG), while Cosenza have gone 19W 27D 29L in their last 75 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Como at home or Cosenza away?
Como's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Como at home: 1.92 PPG; Cosenza away: 0.92 PPG.
Have Como or Cosenza been keeping clean sheets recently?
Como have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Cosenza in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Como and Cosenza, the earliest from September 2021. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent in our data was on 10 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Como won Como 5-1 Cosenza on 25 Feb 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Como have gone 2W 1D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Cosenza — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Como
1
Draws
2
Cosenza
Recent Meetings
❓ Como vs Cosenza H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Como and Cosenza?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Como have won 3, Cosenza have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Como and Cosenza last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 May 2024: Como 1-1 Cosenza.
Who has won more matches between Como and Cosenza?
Como have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Como are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Cosenza see a goal before the break in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Como 57%, Cosenza 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Como) and 30% (Cosenza).
On the defensive side: Cosenza in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Como home games / Cosenza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Como vs Cosenza Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Como and Cosenza matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Como's recent matches and 40% of Cosenza's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Como and Cosenza matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Como's recent games and 30% of Cosenza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Como and Cosenza matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Como's recent matches and 60% of Cosenza's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Como and Cosenza share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia, Regular Season - 38, as Como and Cosenza drew 1-1 in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Como 1.29 xG and Cosenza 1.11 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Como attack 1.24 / defence 0.90 against Cosenza attack 1.05 / defence 0.84, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Como 39% | Draw 32% | Cosenza 30%, with Como to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Como 47%, Cosenza 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Como's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Cosenza's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Como arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 1.12. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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