Carrarese vs Vicenza Virtus – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Carrarese at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Carrarese vs Vicenza Virtus fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 23 as Carrarese welcome Vicenza Virtus to Stadio dei Marmi. Kick-off is set for Saturday 30 January 2027 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Carrarese stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Serie B matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Carrarese have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Carrarese at Stadio dei Marmi this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Across all Serie B games this season, Vicenza Virtus have recorded 1W 1D 1L from 3 outings — 1.33 PPG. Last five: W L D. They are scoring at 1.67 per game and conceding 2.33. Conceding 2.33 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Vicenza Virtus have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Carrarese) versus 1.33 (Vicenza Virtus). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
Carrarese in-play and half-time data (3 games): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Vicenza Virtus in-play and half-time data (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Carrarese 67% and Vicenza Virtus 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Carrarese 33% | Vicenza Virtus 100%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Carrarese 1.54 xG and Vicenza Virtus 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Carrarese attack 0.813 / defence 1.029 | Vicenza Virtus attack 0.843 / defence 1.364. League average goals — home 1.391 / away 1.158. Vicenza Virtus bring a strong defensive rating of 1.364 — this is suppressing Carrarese's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 41 Carrarese games / 3 Vicenza Virtus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Carrarese 50% | Draw 26% | Vicenza Virtus 25%. Fair-value odds: Carrarese 2.00 | Draw 3.85 | Vicenza Virtus 4.00. Carrarese hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Carrarese as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Carrarese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.55 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates are neutral: Carrarese 40% | Vicenza Virtus 67%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Carrarese vs Vicenza Virtus | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadio dei Marmi • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Jan 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Carrarese 50% | Draw 26% | Vicenza Virtus 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 50% | xG Carrarese 1.54 / Vicenza Virtus 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Carrarese attack 0.813 / def 1.029 | Vicenza Virtus attack 0.843 / def 1.364 | league avg home 1.391 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: Carrarese (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Carrarese xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Vicenza Virtus xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Carrarese vs Vicenza Virtus kick off?
Carrarese vs Vicenza Virtus is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 30 January 2027 at Stadio dei Marmi.
Where is Carrarese vs Vicenza Virtus being played?
The match is being played at Stadio dei Marmi.
What competition is Carrarese vs Vicenza Virtus part of?
Carrarese vs Vicenza Virtus is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Carrarese vs Vicenza Virtus?
Our statistical model gives Carrarese a 50% chance of winning, Vicenza Virtus a 25% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Carrarese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Carrarese vs Vicenza Virtus?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Carrarese and Vicenza Virtus will score (BTTS).
Will Carrarese vs Vicenza Virtus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Carrarese and Vicenza Virtus?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Carrarese and Vicenza Virtus in?
Carrarese (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-D-L. Vicenza Virtus (all comps): 1W-1D-1L in 3 | 1.33 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 2.33 | L5 W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Carrarese's attack rating (0.81) and Vicenza Virtus's defence rating (1.36), the model arrives at 1.54 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Vicenza Virtus's attack versus Carrarese's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.5%), 0-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Carrarese Win
50%
2.01
26%
3.91
25%
4.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Carrarese xG
Total xG
2.55
1.00
Vicenza Virtus xG
2.01
50%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
4.06
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
21%
4.68
Win to Nil
18%
5.49
5%
18.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 7.9 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 12.1 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.4 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Carrarese vs Vicenza Virtus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Carrarese and Vicenza Virtus expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Carrarese and 1.00 for Vicenza Virtus, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Carrarese vs Vicenza Virtus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 3 outings, Carrarese have picked up 0.33 PPG on a 0W 1D 2L record — L-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Carrarese, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Vicenza Virtus's form line: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games, 1.33 PPG, last five W-L-D. It's still early in the season for Vicenza Virtus, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Vicenza Virtus are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Carrarese.
Goals in Recent Form
Carrarese are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Vicenza Virtus are on 1.67 scored and 2.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Carrarese have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Vicenza Virtus in 67%.
Last 3 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Carrarese
Early Season
Vicenza Virtus
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Carrarese and Vicenza Virtus in coming into this match?
Carrarese have gone 0W 1D 2L in their last 3 games (0.33 PPG), while Vicenza Virtus have gone 1W 1D 1L in their last 3 (1.33 PPG).
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Carrarese see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Vicenza Virtus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Carrarese at 67%, Vicenza Virtus at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 33% for Carrarese and 100% for Vicenza Virtus. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Carrarese have failed to score in 33% of games; Vicenza Virtus in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Carrarese home games / Vicenza Virtus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Carrarese play Vicenza Virtus?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Carrarese's games and 67% of Vicenza Virtus's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Carrarese vs Vicenza Virtus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 33% of Carrarese's matches and 100% of Vicenza Virtus's.
Do Carrarese and Vicenza Virtus tend to score early?
Carrarese have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Vicenza Virtus in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.