Carrarese 0-0 Mantova – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Carrarese at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Carrarese vs Mantova fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Mantova make the trip to Stadio dei Marmi to face Carrarese in Serie B, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Saturday 27 December 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Carrarese (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Carrarese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Carrarese have posted 5W 3D 2L at Stadio dei Marmi — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio dei Marmi. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Carrarese are significantly better at Stadio dei Marmi than their overall form suggests.
Mantova have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Mantova, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Mantova have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Carrarese, 1 for Mantova and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 May 2025, ended 1–2 with Mantova winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Carrarese goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Mantova goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Carrarese 51% versus Mantova 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Carrarese 49% | Mantova 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Carrarese 1.57 xG and Mantova 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Carrarese attack 1.057 / defence 1.042 | Mantova attack 0.830 / defence 1.111. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 1.075. Data: 55 Carrarese games / 55 Mantova games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Carrarese 51% | Draw 28% | Mantova 21%. Fair-value odds: Carrarese 1.96 | Draw 3.57 | Mantova 4.76. Carrarese hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Carrarese as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Carrarese if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.50 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates corroborate: Carrarese 40% | Mantova 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Carrarese vs Mantova | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stadio dei Marmi • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Dec 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Carrarese 51% | Draw 28% | Mantova 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 49% | xG Carrarese 1.57 / Mantova 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Carrarese attack 1.057 / def 1.042 | Mantova attack 0.830 / def 1.111 | league avg home 1.339 / away 1.075 • Poisson stance: Carrarese (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Carrarese xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Mantova xG
49%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Carrarese vs Mantova kick off?
Carrarese vs Mantova kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 27 December 2025 at Stadio dei Marmi.
What was the final score in Carrarese vs Mantova?
Carrarese 0 - 0 Mantova.
Where is Carrarese vs Mantova being played?
The match is being played at Stadio dei Marmi.
What competition is Carrarese vs Mantova part of?
Carrarese vs Mantova is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Carrarese vs Mantova?
Our statistical model gives Carrarese a 51% chance of winning, Mantova a 21% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Carrarese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Carrarese vs Mantova?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Carrarese and Mantova will score (BTTS).
Will Carrarese vs Mantova have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Carrarese and Mantova?
Record (2 meetings): Carrarese 0W | Draws 1 | Mantova 1W.
What form are Carrarese and Mantova in?
Carrarese (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Mantova (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Carrarese's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Mantova's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.57. Flip it around — Mantova's attack (0.83x) against Carrarese's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 2-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Carrarese Win
51%
1.96
28%
3.56
21%
4.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Carrarese xG
Total xG
2.50
0.93
Mantova xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
4.78
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
39%
2.53
21%
4.82
Win to Nil
20%
4.97
4%
23.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 7.6 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 12.9 | 12.0 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.4 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Carrarese vs Mantova?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Carrarese and Mantova expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Carrarese and 0.93 for Mantova, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Carrarese vs Mantova?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Carrarese's recent record stands at 15W 19D 21L from 55 games, a 1.16 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Carrarese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mantova, meanwhile, have gone 14W 16D 25L across 55 games — 1.05 PPG, with W-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Mantova is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.16 PPG for Carrarese against 1.05 for Mantova. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Carrarese have managed 13W 8D 6L from 27 games — 1.74 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.16 PPG overall — Carrarese are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Mantova's away record stands at 3W 8D 16L across 27 trips, a 0.63 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.05 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Mantova's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Carrarese come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Carrarese are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Mantova are on 1.13 scored and 1.51 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Carrarese
Blended
Mantova
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Carrarese and Mantova in coming into this match?
Carrarese have gone 15W 19D 21L in their last 55 games (1.16 PPG), while Mantova have gone 14W 16D 25L in their last 55 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Carrarese at home or Mantova away?
Carrarese's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Carrarese at home: 1.74 PPG; Mantova away: 0.63 PPG.
Have Carrarese or Mantova been keeping clean sheets recently?
Carrarese have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Mantova in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since October 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Carrarese have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Mantova — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Carrarese
3
Draws
2
Mantova
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Carrarese and Mantova?
From 5 meetings on record, Carrarese have won 0, Mantova have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Carrarese and Mantova last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Carrarese 1-2 Mantova.
Who has won more matches between Carrarese and Mantova?
Mantova have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Carrarese see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Mantova are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Carrarese 37%, Mantova 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Carrarese) and 56% (Mantova).
On the defensive side: Carrarese keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Carrarese have failed to score in 33% of games; Mantova in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Carrarese home games / Mantova away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Carrarese play Mantova?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Carrarese's recent matches and 59% of Mantova's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Carrarese vs Mantova usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Carrarese's recent games and 56% of Mantova's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Carrarese and Mantova tend to score early?
Carrarese have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Mantova in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Carrarese's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Carrarese and Mantova finished level at 0-0 at Stadio dei Marmi, Regular Season - 18, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Carrarese 1.57 xG and Mantova 0.93 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Carrarese fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Mantova landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Carrarese attack 1.06 / defence 1.04 against Mantova attack 0.83 / defence 1.11, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Carrarese 51% | Draw 28% | Mantova 21%, with Carrarese to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Carrarese 49%, Mantova 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Carrarese's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Mantova's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Carrarese 1.16 PPG, Mantova 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Carrarese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Mantova (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.78 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.