Cagliari 1-0 Benevento – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Cagliari at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cagliari vs Benevento encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Cagliari and Benevento meet at Unipol Domus in Serie B, Regular Season - 24. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 11 February 2023 at 13:00 UTC.

Current Form

Cagliari's overall Serie B record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W W D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Cagliari, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Cagliari's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Unipol Domus this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Benevento have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Benevento, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Serie B this season, Benevento have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Cagliari's favour (1.50 vs 0.90) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Cagliari have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Benevento in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Cagliari, 0 for Benevento and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Sep 2022, ended 2–0 with Cagliari winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading

Cagliari half-time and goal-timing data (61 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 63% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

Benevento half-time and goal-timing data (61 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cagliari 59% versus Benevento 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cagliari 48% | Benevento 38%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Cagliari 1.20 xG and Benevento 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cagliari attack 1.130 / defence 1.081 | Benevento attack 0.975 / defence 0.898. League average goals — home 1.180 / away 1.029. Data: 23 Cagliari games / 61 Benevento games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Cagliari 38% | Draw 29% | Benevento 32%. Fair-value odds: Cagliari 2.63 | Draw 3.45 | Benevento 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Cagliari are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cagliari if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.28 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. This conflicts with form data: Cagliari 70% | Benevento 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.

The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights