Brescia 2-1 Cosenza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Brescia at 39%, yet in-form Cosenza provide a compelling counter-argument — this Brescia vs Cosenza fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 35 as Brescia welcome Cosenza to Stadio Mario Rigamonti. Kick-off is set for Monday 1 May 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Brescia stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Brescia have posted 1W 2D 7L at Stadio Mario Rigamonti — 0.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.50 lags behind their overall 1.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadio Mario Rigamonti this season.
Across all Serie B games this season, Cosenza have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Cosenza's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Cosenza's 1.60 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Brescia's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Brescia's 30% rate and Cosenza's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Brescia, 0 for Cosenza and 2 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Dec 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Brescia in-play tendencies (74 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games).
Cosenza in-play tendencies (74 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Brescia 53% versus Cosenza 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Brescia 36% | Cosenza 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brescia 1.04 xG and Cosenza 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brescia attack 0.743 / defence 1.197 | Cosenza attack 0.681 / defence 1.265. League average goals — home 1.107 / away 0.992. Brescia's attack strength of 0.743 is below the league average — the 1.04 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Cosenza bring a strong defensive rating of 1.265 — this is suppressing Brescia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 72 Brescia games / 72 Cosenza games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Brescia 39% | Draw 35% | Cosenza 26%. Fair-value odds: Brescia 2.56 | Draw 2.86 | Cosenza 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.85. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.85 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Brescia are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Cosenza (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Brescia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.85 combined xG gives a 28% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 37% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Brescia 30% | Cosenza 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brescia vs Cosenza | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Stadio Mario Rigamonti • Kick-off: Monday 1 May 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brescia 39% | Draw 35% | Cosenza 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 37% | xG Brescia 1.04 / Cosenza 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Brescia attack 0.743 / def 1.197 | Cosenza attack 0.681 / def 1.265 | league avg home 1.107 / away 0.992 • Poisson stance: Brescia (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Brescia xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Cosenza xG
37%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Brescia vs Cosenza kick off?
Brescia vs Cosenza kicked off at 14:00 on Monday 1 May 2023 at Stadio Mario Rigamonti.
What was the final score in Brescia vs Cosenza?
Brescia 2 - 1 Cosenza.
Where is Brescia vs Cosenza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Mario Rigamonti.
What competition is Brescia vs Cosenza part of?
Brescia vs Cosenza is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Brescia vs Cosenza?
Our statistical model gives Brescia a 39% chance of winning, Cosenza a 26% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Brescia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brescia vs Cosenza?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Brescia and Cosenza will score (BTTS).
Will Brescia vs Cosenza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Brescia and Cosenza?
Record (3 meetings): Brescia 1W | Draws 2 | Cosenza 0W.
What form are Brescia and Cosenza in?
Brescia (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-D-W. Cosenza (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Brescia's attack at 0.74x the league average against Cosenza's defence at 1.26x — combine the two and it projects 1.04 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cosenza's attack versus Brescia's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 72/72 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Brescia Win
39%
2.59
35%
2.84
26%
3.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.7%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Brescia xG
Total xG
1.85
0.81
Cosenza xG
2.59
39%
Home win
2.84
35%
Draw
3.83
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.67
63%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
45%
2.25
35%
2.83
Win to Nil
17%
5.81
9%
10.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.7 | 12.7 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.4 | 13.2 | 5.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 8.5 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Brescia vs Cosenza?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.5%.
How many goals are Brescia and Cosenza expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Brescia and 0.81 for Cosenza, a combined total of 1.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Brescia vs Cosenza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 74 outings, Brescia have picked up 1.36 PPG on a 25W 26D 23L record — L-L-W-D-W across the most recent five.
Cosenza's form line: 18W 22D 34L from 74 games, 1.03 PPG, last five W-W-D-D-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Brescia on 1.36 PPG, Cosenza on 1.03. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Brescia have posted 1.41 PPG from 37 outings (13W 13D 11L).
On the road, Cosenza have gone 2W 13D 22L from 37 away games — 0.51 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.03 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Cosenza's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Brescia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Brescia are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Cosenza are on 0.88 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Last 74 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brescia
Current Season
Cosenza
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Brescia and Cosenza in coming into this match?
Brescia have gone 25W 26D 23L in their last 74 games (1.36 PPG), while Cosenza have gone 18W 22D 34L in their last 74 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brescia at home or Cosenza away?
Brescia's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brescia at home: 1.41 PPG; Cosenza away: 0.51 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Aug 2021, when Brescia won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Brescia's record when hosting Cosenza specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Brescia
4
Draws
2
Cosenza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Brescia and Cosenza?
From 10 meetings on record, Brescia have won 4, Cosenza have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Brescia and Cosenza last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2025, when Cosenza 1-1 Brescia.
Who has won more matches between Brescia and Cosenza?
Brescia have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Brescia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Cosenza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Brescia 51%, Cosenza 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 30% for Brescia and 38% for Cosenza.
On the defensive side: Cosenza in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brescia home games / Cosenza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Brescia play Cosenza?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 51% of Brescia's recent matches and 49% of Cosenza's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Brescia vs Cosenza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Brescia's recent games and 38% of Cosenza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Brescia and Cosenza tend to score early?
Brescia have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Cosenza in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Brescia edge out Cosenza 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brescia beat Cosenza 2-1 at Stadio Mario Rigamonti, Regular Season - 35, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brescia 1.04 xG and Cosenza 0.81 xG, a combined 1.85. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Brescia beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brescia attack 0.74 / defence 1.20 against Cosenza attack 0.68 / defence 1.26, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brescia 39% | Draw 35% | Cosenza 26%, with Brescia to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brescia 36%, Cosenza 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brescia's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Cosenza's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Brescia 1.36 PPG, Cosenza 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Brescia win broke the near-deadlock. Brescia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.