Benevento 1-2 Venezia – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Venezia at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Benevento vs Venezia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Benevento host Venezia at Stadio Ciro Vigorito in Serie B, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 4 February 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Benevento have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Benevento, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Benevento have posted 2W 3D 5L at Stadio Ciro Vigorito — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Venezia — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Venezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Venezia's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Benevento at 1.20 PPG versus Venezia's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Benevento have won 1, Venezia 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Sep 2022, ended 2–0 with Benevento winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Benevento in-play tendencies (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Venezia in-play tendencies (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Benevento 45% versus Venezia 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Benevento 37% | Venezia 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benevento 1.06 xG and Venezia 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benevento attack 0.813 / defence 1.153 | Venezia attack 0.912 / defence 1.141. League average goals — home 1.141 / away 1.032. Data: 60 Benevento games / 22 Venezia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Benevento 34% | Draw 31% | Venezia 35%. Fair-value odds: Benevento 2.94 | Draw 3.23 | Venezia 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Venezia at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Venezia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.14 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates are neutral: Benevento 50% | Venezia 60%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benevento vs Venezia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadio Ciro Vigorito • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Feb 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benevento 34% | Draw 31% | Venezia 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 44% | xG Benevento 1.06 / Venezia 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Benevento attack 0.813 / def 1.153 | Venezia attack 0.912 / def 1.141 | league avg home 1.141 / away 1.032 • Poisson stance: Venezia (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Benevento xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Venezia xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Benevento vs Venezia kick off?
Benevento vs Venezia kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 4 February 2023 at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
What was the final score in Benevento vs Venezia?
Benevento 1 - 2 Venezia.
Where is Benevento vs Venezia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
What competition is Benevento vs Venezia part of?
Benevento vs Venezia is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Benevento vs Venezia?
Our statistical model gives Benevento a 34% chance of winning, Venezia a 35% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Venezia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Benevento vs Venezia?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Benevento and Venezia will score (BTTS).
Will Benevento vs Venezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Benevento and Venezia?
Record (1 meetings): Benevento 1W | Draws 0 | Venezia 0W.
What form are Benevento and Venezia in?
Benevento (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-D-L-L. Venezia (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Benevento's attack at 0.81x the league average against Venezia's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.06 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Venezia's attack versus Benevento's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.5%), 0-1 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Venezia Win
34%
2.94
31%
3.28
35%
2.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Benevento xG
Total xG
2.14
1.08
Venezia xG
2.94
34%
Home win
3.28
31%
Draw
2.82
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
34%
2.96
35%
2.88
Win to Nil
12%
8.69
12%
8.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 12.7 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.5 | 7.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 7.1 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Benevento vs Venezia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Benevento and Venezia expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Benevento and 1.08 for Venezia, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Benevento vs Venezia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Benevento come into this having played 60 games, going 24W 16D 20L for 1.47 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-L-L. The sample for Benevento is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Venezia sit at 0.80 PPG from 60 outings (11W 15D 34L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Venezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Benevento carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.67 PPG clear of Venezia — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Benevento's home form reads 12W 6D 11L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.45 PPG return.
Away from home, Venezia have taken 0.86 points per game from 29 outings (6W 7D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benevento come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Benevento are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Venezia are on 0.97 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Venezia in 62%.
Last 60 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Benevento
Blended
Venezia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Benevento and Venezia in coming into this match?
Benevento have gone 24W 16D 20L in their last 60 games (1.47 PPG), while Venezia have gone 11W 15D 34L in their last 60 (0.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Benevento at home or Venezia away?
Benevento's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Benevento at home: 1.45 PPG; Venezia away: 0.86 PPG.
Have Benevento or Venezia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Benevento have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Venezia in 10%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Benevento
0
Draws
1
Venezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Benevento and Venezia?
From 2 meetings on record, Benevento have won 1, Venezia have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Benevento and Venezia last play each other?
They last met on 4 February 2023, when Benevento 1-2 Venezia.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Benevento are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Venezia see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Benevento 48%, Venezia 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Benevento) and 45% (Venezia).
On the defensive side: Benevento keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Benevento have failed to score in 31% of games; Venezia in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Benevento home games / Venezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Benevento play Venezia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Benevento's recent matches and 55% of Venezia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Benevento vs Venezia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Benevento's recent games and 45% of Venezia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Benevento and Venezia tend to score early?
Benevento have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Venezia in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Venezia edge out Benevento 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Venezia beat Benevento 1-2 at Stadio Ciro Vigorito, Regular Season - 23, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Benevento 1.06 xG and Venezia 1.08 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Venezia outscored their 1.08 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Benevento attack 0.81 / defence 1.15 against Venezia attack 0.91 / defence 1.14, drawn from 60/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Benevento 34% | Draw 31% | Venezia 35%, with Venezia to win its most likely call at 35%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Benevento 37%, Venezia 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Benevento's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Venezia's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Benevento arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 0.80. Form was overturned, with Venezia winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Benevento (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Venezia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.