Benevento 0-0 Pisa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pisa at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Benevento vs Pisa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 11 as Benevento welcome Pisa to Stadio Ciro Vigorito. Kick-off is set for Saturday 29 October 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Benevento have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L D D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Benevento, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Benevento at Stadio Ciro Vigorito this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Pisa — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W D D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Pisa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pisa's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Benevento) versus 1.00 (Pisa). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Benevento register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Pisa in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Benevento, 2 for Pisa and 0 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 May 2022, ended 0–1 with Pisa winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Benevento in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Pisa in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Benevento 43% versus Pisa 55%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Benevento 39% | Pisa 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benevento 1.73 xG and Pisa 1.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benevento attack 0.964 / defence 1.217 | Pisa attack 1.320 / defence 1.350. League average goals — home 1.331 / away 1.111. Pisa bring a strong defensive rating of 1.350 — this is suppressing Benevento's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Pisa have an above-average attack strength of 1.320 — the away xG of 1.78 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 48 Benevento games / 48 Pisa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Benevento 38% | Draw 22% | Pisa 40%. Fair-value odds: Benevento 2.63 | Draw 4.55 | Pisa 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.52. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.52 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.73 / 1.78) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Pisa at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pisa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.52 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 68% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 68% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Benevento 60% | Pisa 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benevento vs Pisa | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadio Ciro Vigorito • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Oct 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benevento 38% | Draw 22% | Pisa 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 68% | xG Benevento 1.73 / Pisa 1.78 • Poisson strength factors: Benevento attack 0.964 / def 1.217 | Pisa attack 1.320 / def 1.350 | league avg home 1.331 / away 1.111 • Poisson stance: Pisa (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Benevento xG
Expected Goals
1.78
Pisa xG
68%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Benevento vs Pisa kick off?
Benevento vs Pisa kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 29 October 2022 at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
What was the final score in Benevento vs Pisa?
Benevento 0 - 0 Pisa.
Where is Benevento vs Pisa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
What competition is Benevento vs Pisa part of?
Benevento vs Pisa is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Benevento vs Pisa?
Our statistical model gives Benevento a 38% chance of winning, Pisa a 40% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Pisa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Benevento vs Pisa?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Benevento and Pisa will score (BTTS).
Will Benevento vs Pisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Benevento and Pisa?
Record (4 meetings): Benevento 2W | Draws 0 | Pisa 2W.
What form are Benevento and Pisa in?
Benevento (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-D-L-L. Pisa (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Benevento's attack rating (0.96) and Pisa's defence rating (1.35), the model arrives at 1.73 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Pisa's attack versus Benevento's defence, projects 1.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.2%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Pisa Win
38%
2.64
22%
4.50
40%
2.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Benevento xG
Total xG
3.52
1.78
Pisa xG
2.64
38%
Home win
4.50
22%
Draw
2.50
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.46
32%
BTTS No
3.17
Clean Sheet
17%
5.95
18%
5.66
Win to Nil
6%
15.73
7%
14.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 5.3 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 9.2 | 8.2 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 8.0 | 7.1 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.6 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Benevento vs Pisa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Benevento and Pisa expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Benevento and 1.78 for Pisa, a combined total of 3.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Benevento vs Pisa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 51 outings, Benevento have picked up 1.53 PPG on a 22W 12D 17L record — L-D-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Benevento is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pisa's form line: 20W 17D 14L from 51 games, 1.51 PPG, last five D-W-D-D-W. The sample for Pisa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Benevento on 1.53 PPG, Pisa on 1.51. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Benevento have posted 1.64 PPG from 25 outings (12W 5D 8L).
On the road, Pisa have gone 8W 7D 10L from 25 away games — 1.24 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Benevento are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Pisa are on 1.35 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 51 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Benevento
Blended
Pisa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Benevento and Pisa in coming into this match?
Benevento have gone 22W 12D 17L in their last 51 games (1.53 PPG), while Pisa have gone 20W 17D 14L in their last 51 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Benevento at home or Pisa away?
Benevento's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Benevento at home: 1.64 PPG; Pisa away: 1.24 PPG.
Have Benevento or Pisa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Benevento have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Pisa in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Apr 2022, when Benevento won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Benevento's record when hosting Pisa specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Benevento
1
Draws
3
Pisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Benevento and Pisa?
From 6 meetings on record, Benevento have won 2, Pisa have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Benevento and Pisa last play each other?
They last met on 18 March 2023, when Pisa 2-0 Benevento.
Who has won more matches between Benevento and Pisa?
Pisa have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Benevento are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Benevento 52%, Pisa 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Benevento) and 40% (Pisa).
On the defensive side: Benevento keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Benevento have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Benevento home games / Pisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Benevento play Pisa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Benevento's games and 60% of Pisa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Benevento vs Pisa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Benevento's recent games and 40% of Pisa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Benevento and Pisa tend to score early?
Benevento have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Pisa in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Benevento's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Ciro Vigorito, Regular Season - 11, as Benevento and Pisa drew 0-0 in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Benevento 1.73 xG and Pisa 1.78 xG, a combined 3.52. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Benevento fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Pisa landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Benevento attack 0.96 / defence 1.22 against Pisa attack 1.32 / defence 1.35, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Benevento 38% | Draw 22% | Pisa 40%, with Pisa to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Benevento 39%, Pisa 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Benevento's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Pisa's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Benevento 1.53 PPG, Pisa 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Benevento (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.76 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line. Pisa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.