Benevento 0-2 Perugia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Benevento at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Benevento vs Perugia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Benevento and Perugia meet at Stadio Ciro Vigorito in Serie B, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Monday 26 December 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Benevento have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D L W W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Benevento, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Benevento at Stadio Ciro Vigorito this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Perugia's overall Serie B record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Perugia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Perugia away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Benevento, 1.20 for Perugia — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Benevento 1W, Perugia 0W, 1D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 0.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 Feb 2022, ended 1–0 with Benevento winning.
With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Benevento — key trading statistics (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Perugia — key trading statistics (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Benevento 44% versus Perugia 49%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Benevento 37% | Perugia 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benevento 1.06 xG and Perugia 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benevento attack 0.849 / defence 0.985 | Perugia attack 0.870 / defence 1.099. League average goals — home 1.140 / away 1.085. Data: 56 Benevento games / 56 Perugia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Benevento 36% | Draw 35% | Perugia 29%. Fair-value odds: Benevento 2.78 | Draw 2.86 | Perugia 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 1.99. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.99 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Benevento at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Benevento if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.99 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: Benevento 40% | Perugia 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benevento vs Perugia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadio Ciro Vigorito • Kick-off: Monday 26 Dec 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benevento 36% | Draw 35% | Perugia 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 42% | xG Benevento 1.06 / Perugia 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Benevento attack 0.849 / def 0.985 | Perugia attack 0.870 / def 1.099 | league avg home 1.140 / away 1.085 • Poisson stance: Benevento (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Benevento xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Perugia xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Benevento vs Perugia kick off?
Benevento vs Perugia kicked off at 14:00 on Monday 26 December 2022 at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
What was the final score in Benevento vs Perugia?
Benevento 0 - 2 Perugia.
Where is Benevento vs Perugia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
What competition is Benevento vs Perugia part of?
Benevento vs Perugia is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Benevento vs Perugia?
Our statistical model gives Benevento a 36% chance of winning, Perugia a 29% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Benevento the favourite.
Will both teams score in Benevento vs Perugia?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Benevento and Perugia will score (BTTS).
Will Benevento vs Perugia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Benevento and Perugia?
Record (2 meetings): Benevento 1W | Draws 1 | Perugia 0W.
What form are Benevento and Perugia in?
Benevento (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-W-D. Perugia (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Benevento's attack at 0.85x the league average against Perugia's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.06 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Perugia's attack (0.87x) against Benevento's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benevento Win
36%
2.79
35%
2.83
29%
3.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.6%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Benevento xG
Total xG
1.99
0.93
Perugia xG
2.79
36%
Home win
2.83
35%
Draw
3.47
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
39%
2.53
35%
2.90
Win to Nil
14%
7.07
10%
10.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.6 | 12.7 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.5 | 13.5 | 6.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 7.2 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Benevento vs Perugia?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.4%.
How many goals are Benevento and Perugia expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Benevento and 0.93 for Perugia, a combined total of 1.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Benevento vs Perugia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Benevento come into this having played 57 games, going 24W 16D 17L for 1.54 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-W-D. The sample for Benevento is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Perugia sit at 1.30 PPG from 57 outings (18W 20D 19L), a run that reads W-D-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Perugia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.54 PPG for Benevento against 1.30 for Perugia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Benevento's home form reads 12W 7D 9L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.54 PPG return.
Away from home, Perugia have taken 1.21 points per game from 28 outings (8W 10D 10L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Benevento are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Perugia are on 0.98 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Defensively: Benevento have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Benevento
Blended
Perugia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Benevento and Perugia in coming into this match?
Benevento have gone 24W 16D 17L in their last 57 games (1.54 PPG), while Perugia have gone 18W 20D 19L in their last 57 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Benevento at home or Perugia away?
Benevento's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Benevento at home: 1.54 PPG; Perugia away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Benevento or Perugia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Benevento have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Perugia in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Perugia have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Benevento have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Perugia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Benevento
1
Draws
2
Perugia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Benevento and Perugia?
From 4 meetings on record, Benevento have won 1, Perugia have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Benevento and Perugia last play each other?
They last met on 19 May 2023, when Perugia 3-2 Benevento.
Who has won more matches between Benevento and Perugia?
Perugia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Benevento see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Perugia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Benevento 46%, Perugia 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Benevento) and 43% (Perugia).
On the defensive side: Benevento keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Benevento have failed to score in 32% of games; Perugia in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Benevento home games / Perugia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Benevento play Perugia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Benevento's recent matches and 54% of Perugia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Benevento vs Perugia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Benevento's recent games and 43% of Perugia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Benevento and Perugia tend to score early?
Benevento have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Perugia in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Perugia cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Benevento.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Perugia beat Benevento 0-2 at Stadio Ciro Vigorito, Regular Season - 19, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Benevento 1.06 xG and Perugia 0.93 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Benevento fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Perugia outscored their 0.93 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Benevento attack 0.85 / defence 0.98 against Perugia attack 0.87 / defence 1.10, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Benevento 36% | Draw 35% | Perugia 29%, with Benevento to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Perugia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Benevento 37%, Perugia 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Benevento's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Perugia's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Benevento 1.54 PPG, Perugia 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Perugia win broke the near-deadlock. Benevento (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Perugia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.