Benevento 0-0 Parma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Benevento at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Benevento vs Parma fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Parma travel to Stadio Ciro Vigorito to take on Benevento. The game is scheduled for Saturday 5 February 2022, 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Benevento stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Benevento, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Benevento's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Stadio Ciro Vigorito this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Parma — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Parma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Parma have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Benevento have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Benevento, 1 for Parma and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2021, ended 0–1 with Parma winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Benevento in-play and half-time data (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Parma in-play and half-time data (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Benevento 45% versus Parma 55%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Benevento 40% | Parma 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benevento 1.71 xG and Parma 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benevento attack 1.395 / defence 1.101 | Parma attack 0.888 / defence 1.257. League average goals — home 0.973 / away 1.249. Benevento carry an above-average attack strength of 1.395 — their λ of 1.71 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Parma bring a strong defensive rating of 1.257 — this is suppressing Benevento's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 20 Benevento games / 20 Parma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Benevento 48% | Draw 26% | Parma 26%. Fair-value odds: Benevento 2.08 | Draw 3.85 | Parma 3.85. Benevento hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Benevento at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Benevento offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.93 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Benevento 50% | Parma 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benevento vs Parma | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadio Ciro Vigorito • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Feb 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benevento 48% | Draw 26% | Parma 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Benevento 1.71 / Parma 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Benevento attack 1.395 / def 1.101 | Parma attack 0.888 / def 1.257 | league avg home 0.973 / away 1.249 • Poisson stance: Benevento (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Benevento xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Parma xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Benevento vs Parma kick off?
Benevento vs Parma kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 5 February 2022 at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
What was the final score in Benevento vs Parma?
Benevento 0 - 0 Parma.
Where is Benevento vs Parma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
What competition is Benevento vs Parma part of?
Benevento vs Parma is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Benevento vs Parma?
Our statistical model gives Benevento a 48% chance of winning, Parma a 26% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Benevento the favourite.
Will both teams score in Benevento vs Parma?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Benevento and Parma will score (BTTS).
Will Benevento vs Parma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Benevento and Parma?
Record (1 meetings): Benevento 0W | Draws 0 | Parma 1W.
What form are Benevento and Parma in?
Benevento (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. Parma (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Benevento's attacking strength (1.40x league average) is weighed against Parma's defensive record (1.26x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.71. The same calculation in reverse, Parma's attack versus Benevento's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Benevento Win
48%
2.10
26%
3.80
26%
3.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Benevento xG
Total xG
2.93
1.22
Parma xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
3.82
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
29%
3.39
18%
5.51
Win to Nil
14%
7.14
5%
21.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 6.5 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 11.2 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.5 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.4 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Benevento vs Parma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Benevento and Parma expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Benevento and 1.22 for Parma, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Benevento vs Parma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 20 outings, Benevento have picked up 1.75 PPG on a 10W 5D 5L record — W-W-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Benevento is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Parma's form line: 5W 9D 6L from 20 games, 1.20 PPG, last five D-D-W-L-D. The sample for Parma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Benevento are the form team by 0.55 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Parma.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Benevento have posted 2.00 PPG from 10 outings (6W 2D 2L).
On the road, Parma have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benevento come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Benevento are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Parma are on 1.10 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Defensively: Benevento have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Benevento
Blended
Parma
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Benevento and Parma in coming into this match?
Benevento have gone 10W 5D 5L in their last 20 games (1.75 PPG), while Parma have gone 5W 9D 6L in their last 20 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Benevento at home or Parma away?
Benevento's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Benevento at home: 2.00 PPG; Parma away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Benevento or Parma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Benevento have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Parma in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Benevento and Parma runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Benevento's record when hosting Parma specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Benevento
2
Draws
1
Parma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Benevento and Parma?
From 4 meetings on record, Benevento have won 1, Parma have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Benevento and Parma last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2023, when Benevento 2-2 Parma.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Benevento are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Benevento 50%, Parma 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Benevento and 70% for Parma. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Benevento keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Benevento have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Benevento home games / Parma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Benevento play Parma?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Benevento's games and 60% of Parma's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Benevento vs Parma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Benevento's matches and 70% of Parma's.
Do Benevento and Parma tend to score early?
Benevento have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Parma in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Benevento's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Benevento and Parma finished level at 0-0 at Stadio Ciro Vigorito, Regular Season - 21, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Benevento 1.71 xG and Parma 1.22 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Benevento fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Parma landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Benevento attack 1.40 / defence 1.10 against Parma attack 0.89 / defence 1.26, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Benevento 48% | Draw 26% | Parma 26%, with Benevento to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Benevento 40%, Parma 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Benevento's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Parma's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Benevento arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.20. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Benevento (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.10 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line. Parma (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.