Benevento 2-1 Frosinone – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Benevento at 40%, yet in-form Frosinone provide a compelling counter-argument — this Benevento vs Frosinone fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Ciro Vigorito plays host to Benevento versus Frosinone in Serie B, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off: Sunday 28 August 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Benevento have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: W W L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Benevento have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Benevento have posted 5W 1D 4L at Stadio Ciro Vigorito — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Benevento are significantly better at Stadio Ciro Vigorito than their overall form suggests.
Frosinone's overall Serie B record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W L L W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Frosinone have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Frosinone's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Frosinone are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.60 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Benevento 0W, Frosinone 2W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Mar 2022, ended 0–2 with Frosinone winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Benevento — key trading statistics (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Frosinone — key trading statistics (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Benevento 40% versus Frosinone 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Benevento 40% | Frosinone 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benevento 1.24 xG and Frosinone 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benevento attack 0.965 / defence 0.994 | Frosinone attack 0.975 / defence 0.960. League average goals — home 1.341 / away 1.085. Data: 40 Benevento games / 40 Frosinone games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Benevento 40% | Draw 29% | Frosinone 31%. Fair-value odds: Benevento 2.50 | Draw 3.45 | Frosinone 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Benevento at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Frosinone (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Benevento if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.29 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: Benevento 50% | Frosinone 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (40 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benevento vs Frosinone | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stadio Ciro Vigorito • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Aug 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benevento 40% | Draw 29% | Frosinone 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 47% | xG Benevento 1.24 / Frosinone 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Benevento attack 0.965 / def 0.994 | Frosinone attack 0.975 / def 0.960 | league avg home 1.341 / away 1.085 • Poisson stance: Benevento (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Benevento xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Frosinone xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Benevento vs Frosinone kick off?
Benevento vs Frosinone kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 28 August 2022 at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
What was the final score in Benevento vs Frosinone?
Benevento 2 - 1 Frosinone.
Where is Benevento vs Frosinone being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
What competition is Benevento vs Frosinone part of?
Benevento vs Frosinone is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Benevento vs Frosinone?
Our statistical model gives Benevento a 40% chance of winning, Frosinone a 31% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Benevento the favourite.
Will both teams score in Benevento vs Frosinone?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Benevento and Frosinone will score (BTTS).
Will Benevento vs Frosinone have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Benevento and Frosinone?
Record (2 meetings): Benevento 0W | Draws 0 | Frosinone 2W.
What form are Benevento and Frosinone in?
Benevento (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-L-D. Frosinone (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Benevento's attack rating (0.96) and Frosinone's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.24 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Frosinone's attack (0.97x) against Benevento's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
The sample (40/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benevento Win
40%
2.49
29%
3.41
31%
3.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Benevento xG
Total xG
2.29
1.05
Frosinone xG
2.49
40%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
3.27
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
29%
3.47
Win to Nil
14%
7.14
9%
11.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 10.6 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.2 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.2 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Benevento vs Frosinone?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Benevento and Frosinone expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Benevento and 1.05 for Frosinone, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Benevento vs Frosinone?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Benevento come into this having played 40 games, going 19W 9D 12L for 1.65 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-D. It's still early in the season for Benevento, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Frosinone sit at 1.60 PPG from 40 outings (17W 13D 10L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Frosinone, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.65 PPG for Benevento against 1.60 for Frosinone. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Benevento's home form reads 10W 3D 6L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.74 PPG return.
Away from home, Frosinone have taken 1.16 points per game from 19 outings (5W 7D 7L). That's a step down from their 1.60 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Frosinone's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benevento come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Benevento are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Frosinone are on 1.55 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Defensively: Benevento have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Frosinone in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Benevento
Early Season
Frosinone
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Benevento and Frosinone in coming into this match?
Benevento have gone 19W 9D 12L in their last 40 games (1.65 PPG), while Frosinone have gone 17W 13D 10L in their last 40 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Benevento at home or Frosinone away?
Benevento's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Benevento at home: 1.74 PPG; Frosinone away: 1.16 PPG.
Have Benevento or Frosinone been keeping clean sheets recently?
Benevento have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Frosinone in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 January 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Frosinone won 1-4 on 6 Nov 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Benevento have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Frosinone — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Benevento
0
Draws
3
Frosinone
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Benevento and Frosinone?
From 4 meetings on record, Benevento have won 1, Frosinone have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Benevento and Frosinone last play each other?
They last met on 29 January 2023, when Frosinone 1-0 Benevento.
Who has won more matches between Benevento and Frosinone?
Frosinone have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Benevento see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Frosinone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Benevento 47%, Frosinone 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Benevento) and 42% (Frosinone).
On the defensive side: Benevento keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Benevento have failed to score in 26% of games; Frosinone in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Benevento home games / Frosinone away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Benevento play Frosinone?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Benevento's recent matches and 47% of Frosinone's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Benevento vs Frosinone usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Benevento's recent games and 42% of Frosinone's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Benevento and Frosinone tend to score early?
Benevento have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Frosinone in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Benevento edge out Frosinone 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Benevento beat Frosinone 2-1 at Stadio Ciro Vigorito, Regular Season - 3, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Benevento 1.24 xG and Frosinone 1.05 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Benevento attack 0.96 / defence 0.99 against Frosinone attack 0.97 / defence 0.96, drawn from 40/40 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Benevento 40% | Draw 29% | Frosinone 31%, with Benevento to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Benevento 40%, Frosinone 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Benevento's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Frosinone's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Benevento 1.65 PPG, Frosinone 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Benevento win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.