Bari 0-1 Sudtirol – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bari at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bari vs Sudtirol encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bari and Sudtirol meet at Stadio Comunale San Nicola in Serie B, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 21 December 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Bari's overall Serie B record this term: 3W 6D 1L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W W D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Bari, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Bari have posted 3W 6D 1L at Stadio Comunale San Nicola — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sudtirol (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 0.50 points per game. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sudtirol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Sudtirol have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The points-per-game gap of 1.00 in Bari's favour (1.50 vs 0.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Bari 2W, Sudtirol 2W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 4 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 Feb 2024, ended 0–1 with Sudtirol winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Bari half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Sudtirol half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bari 60% versus Sudtirol 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bari 36% | Sudtirol 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bari 1.47 xG and Sudtirol 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bari attack 0.998 / defence 0.993 | Sudtirol attack 0.813 / defence 1.205. League average goals — home 1.225 / away 1.083. Sudtirol bring a strong defensive rating of 1.205 — this is suppressing Bari's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 55 Bari games / 55 Sudtirol games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bari 48% | Draw 32% | Sudtirol 20%. Fair-value odds: Bari 2.08 | Draw 3.12 | Sudtirol 5.00. Bari hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bari at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bari if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.35 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.5 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Bari 70% | Sudtirol 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bari vs Sudtirol | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stadio Comunale San Nicola • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Dec 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bari 48% | Draw 32% | Sudtirol 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Bari 1.47 / Sudtirol 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Bari attack 0.998 / def 0.993 | Sudtirol attack 0.813 / def 1.205 | league avg home 1.225 / away 1.083 • Poisson stance: Bari (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Bari xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Sudtirol xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bari vs Sudtirol kick off?
Bari vs Sudtirol kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 21 December 2024 at Stadio Comunale San Nicola.
What was the final score in Bari vs Sudtirol?
Bari 0 - 1 Sudtirol.
Where is Bari vs Sudtirol being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale San Nicola.
What competition is Bari vs Sudtirol part of?
Bari vs Sudtirol is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bari vs Sudtirol?
Our statistical model gives Bari a 48% chance of winning, Sudtirol a 20% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Bari the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bari vs Sudtirol?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Bari and Sudtirol will score (BTTS).
Will Bari vs Sudtirol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bari and Sudtirol?
Record (4 meetings): Bari 2W | Draws 0 | Sudtirol 2W.
What form are Bari and Sudtirol in?
Bari (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. Sudtirol (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Bari's attack rating (1.00) and Sudtirol's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sudtirol's attack (0.81x) against Bari's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.5%), 0-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bari Win
48%
2.06
32%
3.14
20%
5.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Bari xG
Total xG
2.35
0.88
Sudtirol xG
2.06
48%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
5.09
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
42%
2.40
23%
4.36
Win to Nil
20%
4.95
5%
22.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.1 | 12.3 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.1 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.1 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bari vs Sudtirol?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Bari and Sudtirol expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Bari and 0.88 for Sudtirol, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Bari vs Sudtirol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 55 outings, Bari have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 13W 26D 16L record — W-W-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Bari is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sudtirol's form line: 16W 13D 26L from 55 games, 1.11 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-D. The sample for Sudtirol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.18 PPG for Bari against 1.11 for Sudtirol. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Bari have posted 1.48 PPG from 27 outings (9W 13D 5L).
On the road, Sudtirol have gone 7W 6D 14L from 27 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bari come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bari are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Sudtirol are on 1.15 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bari have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 55 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bari
Blended
Sudtirol
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bari and Sudtirol in coming into this match?
Bari have gone 13W 26D 16L in their last 55 games (1.18 PPG), while Sudtirol have gone 16W 13D 26L in their last 55 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bari at home or Sudtirol away?
Bari's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bari at home: 1.48 PPG; Sudtirol away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 22 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bari have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sudtirol — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Bari
4
Draws
4
Sudtirol
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bari and Sudtirol?
From 10 meetings on record, Bari have won 2, Sudtirol have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Bari and Sudtirol last play each other?
They last met on 22 May 2026, when Sudtirol 0-0 Bari.
Who has won more matches between Bari and Sudtirol?
Sudtirol have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bari see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bari 63%, Sudtirol 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Bari) and 52% (Sudtirol).
On the defensive side: Sudtirol in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bari home games / Sudtirol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bari play Sudtirol?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Bari's games and 56% of Sudtirol's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bari vs Sudtirol usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Bari's recent games and 52% of Sudtirol's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bari and Sudtirol tend to score early?
Bari have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Sudtirol in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sudtirol defy the odds to beat Bari 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sudtirol beat Bari 0-1 at Stadio Comunale San Nicola, Regular Season - 18, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bari 1.47 xG and Sudtirol 0.88 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Bari fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bari attack 1.00 / defence 0.99 against Sudtirol attack 0.81 / defence 1.21, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bari 48% | Draw 32% | Sudtirol 20%, with Bari to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Sudtirol win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bari 36%, Sudtirol 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bari's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sudtirol's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bari 1.18 PPG, Sudtirol 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sudtirol win broke the near-deadlock. Bari (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward. Sudtirol (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.