Bari 1-1 Monza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bari at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bari vs Monza fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 2 as Bari welcome Monza to Stadio San Nicola. Kick-off is set for Sunday 31 August 2025 at 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Bari have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Bari have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bari's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Stadio San Nicola this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Bari are significantly better at Stadio San Nicola than their overall form suggests.
Monza — All Games: 2W 0D 8L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Monza have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Monza's away record: 1W 0D 9L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Bari 0.90 PPG, Monza 0.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
Bari trading profile (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).
Monza trading profile (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bari 56% versus Monza 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bari 36% | Monza 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bari 1.44 xG and Monza 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bari attack 1.023 / defence 0.968 | Monza attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.221 / away 1.046. Data: 39 Bari games / 1 Monza games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Bari 47% | Draw 34% | Monza 19%. Fair-value odds: Bari 2.13 | Draw 2.94 | Monza 5.26. Bari hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (34%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bari as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bari offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.30 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: Bari 60% | Monza 40%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bari vs Monza | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stadio San Nicola • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Aug 2025, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bari 47% | Draw 34% | Monza 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 48% | xG Bari 1.44 / Monza 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Bari attack 1.023 / def 0.968 | Monza attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.221 / away 1.046 • Poisson stance: Bari (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Bari xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Monza xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bari vs Monza kick off?
Bari vs Monza kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 31 August 2025 at Stadio San Nicola.
What was the final score in Bari vs Monza?
Bari 1 - 1 Monza.
Where is Bari vs Monza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio San Nicola.
What competition is Bari vs Monza part of?
Bari vs Monza is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bari vs Monza?
Our statistical model gives Bari a 47% chance of winning, Monza a 19% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Bari the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bari vs Monza?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Bari and Monza will score (BTTS).
Will Bari vs Monza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bari and Monza?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bari and Monza in?
Bari (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. Monza (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Bari's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Monza's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.44. The same calculation in reverse, Monza's attack versus Bari's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (39/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.8%), 0-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bari Win
47%
2.13
34%
2.91
19%
5.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Bari xG
Total xG
2.30
0.86
Monza xG
2.13
47%
Home win
2.91
34%
Draw
5.32
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
42%
2.37
24%
4.21
Win to Nil
20%
5.05
4%
22.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 8.6 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.4 | 12.4 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 8.9 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.0 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bari vs Monza?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Bari and Monza expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Bari and 0.86 for Monza, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Bari vs Monza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bari's recent record stands at 10W 18D 11L from 39 games, a 1.23 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Bari, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Monza, meanwhile, have gone 4W 9D 26L across 39 games — 0.54 PPG, with L-W-L-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Monza, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bari by 0.69 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Monza heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Bari have managed 7W 9D 3L from 19 games — 1.58 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Monza's away record stands at 2W 4D 13L across 19 trips, a 0.53 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bari come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Bari are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Monza are on 0.74 scored and 1.77 conceded.
Last 39 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bari
Early Season
Monza
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bari and Monza in coming into this match?
Bari have gone 10W 18D 11L in their last 39 games (1.23 PPG), while Monza have gone 4W 9D 26L in their last 39 (0.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bari at home or Monza away?
Bari's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bari at home: 1.58 PPG; Monza away: 0.53 PPG.
Have Bari or Monza been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bari have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Monza in 10%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Bari
1
Draws
1
Monza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bari and Monza?
From 2 meetings on record, Bari have won 0, Monza have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bari and Monza last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Monza 2-0 Bari.
Who has won more matches between Bari and Monza?
Monza have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Monza see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bari 63%, Monza 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Bari) and 53% (Monza).
On the defensive side: Bari keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Monza in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bari home games / Monza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bari play Monza?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Bari's games and 47% of Monza's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bari vs Monza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Bari's recent games and 53% of Monza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bari and Monza tend to score early?
Bari have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Monza in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bari and Monza share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bari and Monza finished level at 1-1 at Stadio San Nicola, Regular Season - 2, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bari 1.44 xG and Monza 0.86 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bari attack 1.02 / defence 0.97 against Monza attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 39/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Bari 47% | Draw 34% | Monza 19%, with Bari to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bari 36%, Monza 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bari's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Monza's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bari arrived the stronger side — 1.23 PPG against 0.54. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Monza (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.